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May 2025 Macro thoughts/ Mar a Lago Accords
Posted on 5/5/25 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 5/5/25 at 8:44 pm
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/8/25 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 5/7/25 at 7:25 am to SoLaSMB
Not sure why you’re getting DVs …. looks like you’ve put a considerable amount of thought into in reevaluating your portfolio, and at a relatively young age too! Congratulations.
Your high conviction picks look good too (except for TSMC, too much geo risk for me) I suspect your rotation into commodities will prove to be a very wise decision over the next decade - very wise.
I don’t have as much equity risk as you do (large cap, small cap, intl) but my circumstances are different than yours. That may change in the future, but I’m keeping dry powder for late 2025 / early 2026 investment.
Here’s the one thing I think you should consider. The tariff situation may change significantly over the course of the next couple of years, and will most certainly change when the current administration exits in 2028 …. and another rapid pivot may be required at any time during the next 3+ years.
Having DINK status helps A LOT ! I was SITCOM for 28 years (single income two children oppressive mortgage)
Good fortunes ….
Your high conviction picks look good too (except for TSMC, too much geo risk for me) I suspect your rotation into commodities will prove to be a very wise decision over the next decade - very wise.
I don’t have as much equity risk as you do (large cap, small cap, intl) but my circumstances are different than yours. That may change in the future, but I’m keeping dry powder for late 2025 / early 2026 investment.
Here’s the one thing I think you should consider. The tariff situation may change significantly over the course of the next couple of years, and will most certainly change when the current administration exits in 2028 …. and another rapid pivot may be required at any time during the next 3+ years.
Having DINK status helps A LOT ! I was SITCOM for 28 years (single income two children oppressive mortgage)
Good fortunes ….
This post was edited on 5/7/25 at 7:27 am
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