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re: Louisiana Stocks
Posted on 4/25/10 at 4:55 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Posted on 4/25/10 at 4:55 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:I hope it's not that gym where the guy put a camera in the ladies' shower. The lawsuits will be big in that one.....
Amedysis is a hidden gym in BR.
1
Posted on 4/25/10 at 5:01 pm to LSURussian
THF always has good grammar. He should get a kick out of this one.
Posted on 4/25/10 at 5:04 pm to RedStickBR
No question that reinburstment rates will decline but the street believes that LHCG/AMED will increase market share as smaller companies fold. The industry will see a major consolidation over the next 10 years with an increase of patients (babyboomers). These are 2 of the top 4 Home Healths in the country so both have become aquistion preditors.
I like how both companies use very small amounts of leverage to generate ROE.
Disclaimer:Position in LHCG Since 2006
I like how both companies use very small amounts of leverage to generate ROE.
Disclaimer:Position in LHCG Since 2006
Posted on 4/25/10 at 5:07 pm to RedStickBR
THF is a good sport. He'll laugh.......I think.
Back on topic, my concern for Amedisys is their growth. Can they manage their business properly while absorbing so many companies? I've seen well-managed companies outgrow their management capacity by doing just that.
Posted on 4/25/10 at 5:53 pm to LSURussian
All in good fun. I am lucky that when I do slip up, it's usually something comical and rarely something that indicates anything more than miswiring between my brain and fingers or an improper predictive text from the iPhone.
Posted on 4/25/10 at 6:03 pm to STEALTH
Stealth, I'm going to do some more DD. AMED is starting to look a little toppy to me, although if your analysis plays out as expected, that won't matter over the long-term. The PEG is favorable (.65) but the growth rate used in that computation looks like it may be hard to sustain. The company will likely continue to grow, but that rate looks like it could be set for a decline, which means the PEG could see a rise closer to 1, implying the stock would be fairly valued.
As to earnings, the same can be said for LHCG - beginning to get a bit toppy. And it's PEG value is at .95. To me, that's not a good combination. But as you know there's a lot more to the equation than merely their fins.
So I think both of these should be categorized as speculative plays at this point in time, as opposed to financial no-brainers. I don't have the knowledge to speculate at this point. It seems you're much better positioned to give these stocks a more multi-faceted analysis than my own.
As to earnings, the same can be said for LHCG - beginning to get a bit toppy. And it's PEG value is at .95. To me, that's not a good combination. But as you know there's a lot more to the equation than merely their fins.
So I think both of these should be categorized as speculative plays at this point in time, as opposed to financial no-brainers. I don't have the knowledge to speculate at this point. It seems you're much better positioned to give these stocks a more multi-faceted analysis than my own.
This post was edited on 4/25/10 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 4/25/10 at 6:06 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
All in good fun. I am lucky that when I do slip up, it's usually something comical and rarely something that indicates anything more than miswiring between my brain and fingers or an improper predictive text from the iPhone.
Ahhh, I'm not calling you a liar, but if you are, that is the best excuse for a grammatical slip-up I think I've ever seen as it can be traced to virtually no fault of your own. Touche my friend.
Posted on 4/26/10 at 5:37 pm to RedStickBR
I certainly appreciate your DD. Around 2 months ago, LHCG was still trading in a 29-34 channel and I was able to add to my position on the low side before the next leg up. The fundamentals are there but like most stocks including HC, it needs a catalyst to help move it up. This stock is sensetive to any news on HC, especially positive news on the HC bill. When news related to passage came out the stock would jump 2-4% in a day. Since the bill has passed the stock price is up over $6.
My problem is finding the exit point because like you said this is a speculative stock. Im thinking about selling half my position leading up to earnings (hopefully $38 range) and hoping for some crappy macro news to buy in again around 30.
Amed has always looked expensive compared to LHCG. I see AMED as a good buy in the low 50's and sell around $60. I can put you on some other high growth stocks in the Home Health industry if the sector appeals to you.
BTW the street sees these companies as safe defensive plays against the market. TIA
Disclaimer: Long LHCG since 2006
My problem is finding the exit point because like you said this is a speculative stock. Im thinking about selling half my position leading up to earnings (hopefully $38 range) and hoping for some crappy macro news to buy in again around 30.
Amed has always looked expensive compared to LHCG. I see AMED as a good buy in the low 50's and sell around $60. I can put you on some other high growth stocks in the Home Health industry if the sector appeals to you.
BTW the street sees these companies as safe defensive plays against the market. TIA
Disclaimer: Long LHCG since 2006
This post was edited on 4/26/10 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 4/26/10 at 7:09 pm to STEALTH
quote:
I can put you on some other high growth stocks in the Home Health industry if the sector appeals to you.
Sure thing. I'll give them a look.
Posted on 4/26/10 at 8:00 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
Amedysis
My professor is on the board. He is always talking about it. Well run company.
Posted on 4/27/10 at 11:00 am to Bob Sacamano
Burkenroad?
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