Currently there's a prop bet for Rubio vs Vance as the GOP nominee. Rubio is at 28 cents on the dollar and Vance is at 38. It looks like to me I should be able to bet them both and net a risk free 34 cents on the dollar. Am I missing something?

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Posted by FnTigers

Member since Sep 2021

2974 posts

Posted on 3/15/26 at 9:55 pm to Jim Rockford

quote:
Currently there's a prop bet for Rubio vs Vance as the GOP nominee. Rubio is at 28 cents on the dollar and Vance is at 38. It looks like to me I should be able to bet them both and net a risk free 34 cents on the dollar. Am I missing something?

You're betting against the rest of the field. The gap is the market saying "what if a different guy" wins the nom.

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Posted by La Place Mike

West Florida Republic

Member since Jan 2004

31252 posts

Posted on 3/15/26 at 10:08 pm to Jim Rockford

quote:
It looks like to me I should be able to bet them both and net a risk free 34 cents on the dollar.

As long as Tucker trading at $.06 doesn't get the nomination.

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Posted by Jim Rockford

Member since May 2011

105023 posts

Posted on 3/15/26 at 10:15 pm to La Place Mike

Thanks. Tucker or "the field" doesn't look too likely now but you can never tell.

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Posted by thunderbird1100

GSU Eagles fan

Member since Oct 2007

72126 posts

Posted on 3/16/26 at 7:09 am to Jim Rockford

You're trying to bet on something that has 2 years before ever coming to fruition

A lot can happen between now and then

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Posted by Roy Curado

Member since Jul 2021

1557 posts

Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:47 am to Jim Rockford

Khalshi and Polymarket betting is technically illegal in the State of LA. While I don't think they are specifically going after bettors, if you place your money in this platform and need to dispute a transaction, they shut their platform down, they do not honor the bet, or just decide to not pay you, best of luck to you.

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