re: Have we seen the bottom this year?

Not just "no" but...



The only move in the right direction taken on any of the big drivers (supply chain, fuel, inflation and the domino effect of the Russia/Ukraine war) has been the Fed finally raising rates to address the over-liquidity problem.

The war in Ukraine rages on. This is having an impact on things like oil, natural gas, corn, wheat and Urea (for DEF).

Biden continues to frick over domestic O&G, seemingly every time he opens his mouth. This increases the price of EVERYTHING, with many getting it from multiple vectors.

Supply chain issues still abound. While some have gotten better, others have continued. Unfortunately there's no One Ring to cast into lava to fix this.

This Fall and Winter is going to be very lean for a lot of people in a lot of countries due to Russia's grain being blackballed, Ukraine's harvest from last year rotting on the docks and Ukraine not being able to plant shite this year. And then there's also Biden's mandate of a 50% increase in ethanol (meaning fewer US acres going towards food for human consumption as well as more field corn being sold to refineries instead of going to livestock).

So, at best, we have 1.5 out of 4 issues being addressed in any fashion (half a point for supply chain, I'm feeling magnanimous since it's Friday). How can we be anywhere near the bottom when the majority of drivers are still going strong?