re: BOIL has become predictable

2.5% of the one and .0075% of the other.

I see no choice at this point other than to keep average down. My logic is that when UNG was 25ish, the 23 short was in the money, and the 20 short was close. If I average down, in a worst case scenario, I can get out alive at $24.50 or so, which isn't that far away.

Cliff notes? You getting killed?

Wish you the best. I love this thread.

Between 120-129.

July contracts are trading above cash price. Without getting in to contango, backwardation, normal futures curve and inverted futures curve, what this means is that the futures price should start to back down. Unless we have a very unstable cash price.

So today was very disconnected again. UNG went up less than 1%. UNG July 23 puts went down almost 21% to .15, which means bears are scared. I've made pretty decent gains by doing exactly the opposite of what almost everyone else does. That is to say, buy low and sell high. Now everyone talks about doing this, but when the rubber hits the road, very few actually do this (see put prices today). All this framed by natural gas futures moving less than .03, with an upcoming injection report that some are estimating as high as 129.

I by no means see this as a guaranteed profit, but I do see .15 puts as a very well educated risk at this point. With July 23P at .15, I think these contracts turn profitable once UNG dips below $25, which isn't that far off, and could be as soon as Thursday.

LOVE that you've put it all out there for us to watch. Best of luck

5700. Crazy. Fun.

Lyrics included here so we can all sing along. Boogity, Boogity, it's NASCAR season.

LINK

I'm done with gas for life