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re: What happened to Jordan Jefferson over the course of his career

Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:45 pm to
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

And we will never know if JL could have produced better results in the BCSCG, but it's not debatable that he couldn't have produced less.
I love when Jefferson haters post ignorant bullshite. It provides such a teachable moment.


So you say that Lee could not have produced less than Jefferson in the BCSCG?

In the BCSCG, Jefferson had a QB Rating of 79.13 and a completion percentage of 64.71%.

In the 2008 game against Alabama, Lee had a QB Rating of 69.13 and a completion percentage of 38.24%.
In the 2009 game against Alabama, Lee had a QB Rating of 56.96 and a completion percentage of 40.00%.
In the 2010 game against Alabama, Lee had a QB Rating of 137.54 and a completion percentage of 57.14%.
In the 2011 game against Alabama, Lee had a QB Rating of 14.52 and a completion percentage of 42.19%.

Comparing Lee's QB Rating against Alabama to Jefferson's QB Rating against Alabama in the BCSCG, Lee had a higher QB Rating against Alabama only ONE time in Lee's entire career.

Comparing Lee's completion percentage against Alabama to Jefferson's completion percentage against Alabama in the BCSCG, Lee NEVER had a higher completion percentage against Alabama in Lee's entire career.

So maybe you're right that it's not debatable that Lee couldn't have produced less. Lee's history against Alabama seems to conclusively prove that there is almost no way he would have produced more than Jefferson in the BCSCG. Hell, in 2011 alone, Lee had twice as many interceptions against Alabama as Jefferson had, and Lee had only one-quarter of the pass attempts.


quote:

There isn't an LSU fan alive that would spend that much time defending a QB that is otherwise generally reviled by neutral fans that got weary of seeing a second string Sun Belt caliber QB starting for an otherwise top tier SEC power.... I just know that other than the second half of 2012 and 2013, the LSU offense looked smoother with JL starting the first half of 2011 than it had since 2006.
As I showed above, your perception of the facts appears to be skewed by the 2011 BCSCG.

Jefferson's performance, like very other QB under Miles, improved from his initial year to his last.

SEC Regular Season Games

You cannot rationally describe Jefferson's career by one game. Only irrational emotion would cause that kind of result.

It's even more irrational to label a player by one game considering that without Jefferson's play in prior games, LSU does not even play in the BCSCG. Jefferson's performance in the GOTC helped to win the game, and his performance against Arkansas was very good. If LSU does not win those games, LSU does not make it to the BCSCG.

His performance in the second half of the SECCG was an integral part of that victory. Tyrann Mathieu sparked the team and played amazingly, but Jefferson led the team to FOUR offensive TDs.

And you can't reasonably blame Jefferson for the loss in the BCSCG. He completed almost 65% of his passes. There are at least six reasons why LSU lost the BCSCG:


1. LSU did not run well against top five defenses. In the first half of the SECCG, LSUs' RBs gained 21 yards on 9 attempts. That's 2.3 YPC. On one possession, Jefferson completed a 9 yard pass on first down. LSU's RBs ran the ball twice and could not get the first down. The first half of the SECCG sucked for the entire LSU offense. During the BCSCG, LSU's RBs gained 24 yards for the whole game.

The problem with the BCSCG and the first half of the SECCG is that LSU's offense did not work against those defenses. The problem was the offensive line. For the BCSCG, the O-line couldn’t move the Bama D-line, and they couldn’t hold them back either. There was no run game, and there was no time to pass.

In nearly every series of the BCSCG, the offense line failed to execute on at least one play. Bama had the best defense in college football. It would have been difficult to beat Bama unless they made a costly mistake or the offense executed at a very high level.


2. The GOTC loss motivated Bama to better prepare for and play the NC game. Bama was playing for redemption. Bama was very well-prepared for the game. The Bama defense was fully prepared to shut down the option. The Bama defense was fully prepared to shut down LSU's deep threat.


3. Bama lost the GOTC with their prior offensive strategy, so they were forced to abandon it. Bama took greater risks to win the BCCG. The Bama offense went in a completely different direction than it had all season. Bama relied on McCarron and passing rather than Richardson and rushing to move the ball. Saban took the ball out of Richardson’s hands and made McCarron win the game. Bama threw on nearly every first down. It was a risky strategy, but what did Bama have to lose? They had already lost to LSU trying to run the ball. McCarron had a terrific night; thus, the strategy worked.


4. Even though Bama had flipped its offensive strategy, it does not necessarily mean that LSU should have inserted Lee at any point in the NC game. Hindsight is always 20/20, and we know now that LSU’s plan did not work. However, LSU trailed Arkansas 14-0 in the second quarter. The offense came around in the second quarter, and LSU blew out Arkansas. LSU trailed Georgia 10-0 at the half in the SECCG. The offense was atrocious the first half but came around in the second half, and LSU blew out Georgia. With a few dozen plays left, it was not unreasonable for Miles to go with the strategy that worked so well in the two previous games. It was at least as reasonable as trying a QB that was the antithesis of the ideal QB to use against Bama.

CONTINUED
This post was edited on 8/2/15 at 8:30 pm
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
29209 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:46 pm to
Be careful Peej. That's his boy you're talking about. Literally. Uncle boxcar hasn't done much lifting in this thread, Daddy's got it. At least Daddy hasn't compared his son to Brett Favre like Unk boxcar once did.
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
29209 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:47 pm to
quote:

Salviati


What's your relation to JJ? Or ARE you JJ?
This post was edited on 8/2/15 at 7:50 pm
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
29209 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

Miles showed faith in his starting QB


JJ started the regular season game against Alabama??

My eyes just need checking
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:52 pm to
CONTINUED

5. Jefferson was the right choice for the entire game. Lee would have been ineffective. Jefferson in the pocket slowed down the Bama rush because Bama used a mush rush to contain Jefferson and prevent him from running. It’s the same idea LSU used against Manziel to keep him from breaking off long runs. Slow the rush and contain the QB. Bama would not have used a mush rush against Lee because Lee is no threat to run.

So if Miles put in Lee, there’s still no run game, and now there is even less time to pass. If there is one thing Bama feasted on, it was immobile pocket passers. Lee’s historic numbers against Bama confirm this fact. His QB Rating against Bama could fit in a shoe box.


Lee was efficient, but not prolific.

During 2011, "efficient" is the single word that defined Lee. You'll be hard pressed to find a post about Lee without the word "efficient" just a few words away. The thing about being defined as “efficient” is that it means that you aren’t a prolific passer; you don’t throw it a lot. In fact, it typically means that the offense is run-oriented and passes infrequently. Prior to the GOTC, Lee averaged less than 20 passes per game. Lee had only one game in 2011 in which he threw for more than 200 yards: 213 yards against Mississippi State. Lee wasn’t a prolific passer. He was efficient.

Efficient does not work when you can’t run.

Efficient works when your team can run the ball effectively. Efficient means that the defense is focused on stopping the run. Efficient means that the defense is not expecting a pass. Efficient means that you have time to throw because the defense is not focused on stopping the pass. Efficient does not work when you aren’t running well. Efficient does not work when your line can’t block. Bama’s D was suffocating that night. Bama would have killed Lee.


Jefferson was a better QB than Lee.

Jefferson's three regular season starts in 2011 were the three best offensive games of the season.

It wasn't that one of Jefferson's games was better than one of Lee's games. It wasn't that the average of Jefferson's three starts was better than the average of Lee's starts. Every regular season game that Jefferson started was better than every regular season game that Lee started.

LSU's best rushing game happened when Jefferson started.

LSU's best total offense game happened when Jefferson started.

LSU's best completion percentage game happened when Jefferson started.

In the nine games that Lee started during the regular season, LSU gained over 400 yards just once. In the three games that Jefferson started during the regular season, LSU gained more than 400 yards in every game. Every game.

Jefferson had better regular season passing numbers than Lee.

Compare regular season numbers. Jefferson had better passing numbers than Lee: higher Completion %; higher QB Rating; higher YPA; lower Interception %. And that's not even mentioning how much Jefferson improved the team's rushing attack. LSU rushed for over 250 yards in every game of Jefferson’s three starts.

Lee threw for over 200 yards (213) just once in nine games. Jefferson threw for more than 200 yards (208) once in just three games.

Jefferson completed 100% of his passes against Ole Miss. Lee never completed 100% of his passes in any of his starts, not even against Northwestern State, an FCS school.

In Lee's nine regular season starts, he completed less than 50% of his passes three times. In Jefferson's three starts, he always completed more than 55% of his passes.

Jefferson (2011 Regular Season)
64.3%, 9.34 YPA, 5 TDs, 1 INT, INT% 1.43%, Overall Rating 163.48

Lee (2011 Regular Season)
62.3%, 7.82 YPA, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, INT% 1.80%, Overall Rating 152.04

Post-season numbers cannot be compared. Jefferson played in the Championship games. Lee didn't

Jefferson was more efficient than Lee

From the moment that Jefferson threw his first pass in the Florida game in 2011, he had a higher QB Rating than Lee. Jefferson had a better efficiency rating than Lee, and that better efficiency continued for the rest of the regular season. That's right, from his first pass until the end of the regular season, Jefferson was more efficient than Lee.

So when folks say that Lee was an efficient QB, the "most efficient" QB in the SEC or in the nation, at no point during the regular season, from the time Jefferson threw his first pass until the end of the regular season, was Lee more efficient than Jefferson.


6. LSU should not have been playing Bama. LSU beat Bama at their house in the Game of the Century. You play the hand you’re dealt, but it was a raw deal.


The Jefferson haters have refused to post or do more than barely acknowledge that Jefferson added a major dimension that Lee could not. Jefferson's record setting 1,018 career rushing yards is more than 25% of Lee's career passing yards. It's a truly significant number of rushing yards.

Moreover, not only did Jefferson run the ball better than Lee, LSU as a team ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB.

The common meme on this board is that Lee was the better passer and Jefferson was the better runner. The truth is:
(1) Jefferson was a better runner,
(2) the LSU offense ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB, and
(3) AT WORST, Jefferson was an equivalent passer to Lee.

The only thing that is debatable is the extent to which Jefferson was a better passer. Jefferson's career stats, season stats against SEC teams, and 2011 regular season stats are better than Lees.

CONTINUED
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:52 pm to
CONTINUED

Jefferson vs. Lee is very much a live issue. Whether Miles should have played Jefferson or Lee is very much a live issue. In fact, the interplay of those two issues may be the biggest shadow over LSU football today.

Almost daily, you can read a post stating that Miles had an irrational preference for Jefferson over Lee. Almost daily, you can read a poster justify their hatred or total lack of faith in Miles because Jefferson played the entirety of the BCSCG. Some peoples' memories of the BCSCG remain warped by anger and frustration. You can still find people who ignorantly post that LSU never crossed the 50-yard line in the BCSCG.


Some people say Jefferson vs. Lee is dead. All you have to do is look at the complaints about Jennings or Miles to see that Jefferson vs. Lee is very much alive, and it still casts a shadow over the entire LSU football program.


One of my main points in discussing Jefferson is the very simple point that reasonable minds can disagree. You can disagree a person's choice but still agree that the person's choice was reasonable. There are different ways to score from the two-yard line, and reasonable minds can disagree as to which play is the best play to call.

I believe that reasonable minds can disagree on whether Miles should have substituted Lee for Jefferson in the BCSCG. Lee might have mixed things up. Lee might have sparked the team. However, the odds were not in Lee's favor. He was exactly the kind of QB that Alabama's defense feasted on: an immobile pocket passer. His history against Alabama confirms that statement, and his hisotry against Alabama can be fairly described as abysmal.

On the other hand, Jefferson as QB slowed the Bama rush down. Moreover, Jefferson's ability to lead a second half comeback in 2011 was rock solid before the BCSCG.


Many fans did not think at halftime of the GOTC that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, in OT, Jefferson executed a perfect short-side option to Ford which put LSU in position for victory.

LSU beat Alabama at their house in the GOTC.


Many fans did not think with four minutes left in the half and LSU trailing 14-7 against Arkansas that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, Jefferson passed for 208 yards, LSU's second highest passing total of the season, and Jefferson rushed for an additional 53 yards, all against the #3 team in the nation which positioned LSU for victory.

LSU blew the doors off of Arkansas, won the SEC West, and earned an invitation in the SECCG.


Many fans did not think at halftime with LSU trailing 10-7 to Georgia in the SECCG that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, Jefferson executed options and zone reads to near perfection, and he threw a TD pass to Hilliard as LSU's offense scored FOUR TDs against a Top Five defense in their own backyard.

LSU rushed for over 200 yards, and Jefferson being the QB was an integral part of that, and LSU blew out Georgia and earned the right to play in the BCSCG.


So, of course, many fans did not think at halftime of Jan 9 that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. Unfortunately, the stars were aligned against LSU that night. They never got the spark they needed against a totally amped up Alabama team that was desperate for redemption. However, Jefferson completed nearly 65% of his passes despite his porous offensive line. Had LSU been able to continue to switch it up and throw more in the second half of the BCSCG, it might have been a different story. However, the line could not hold Alabama back long enough to give Jefferson time to throw.


Jefferson played in FOUR huge games in 2011: the GOTC, the Arkansas game, the SECCG, and the BCSCG. At halftime, or four minutes before the half, LSU was losing in each of those games. Nevertheless, Miles showed faith in his starting QB, and Jefferson delivered in every game but one.

Thus, in my opinion, given the three HUGE games before the BCSCG, a reasonable mind could rationally choose to stick with Jefferson for the second half of the BCSCG because it had worked well in the three previous HUGE games.

I believe that reasonable minds can CERTAINLY differ on whether leaving Jefferson in, or substituting Lee for Jefferson, was the best strategy.
Posted by ForeLSU
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
41525 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Ok so what's the excuse for starting him in 09 and 2010.
You don't start a qb for over 2 years if he has no leadership and a bad attitude. Especially when you have a qb on the bench with the same passing abilities.


Because neither had more than average passing abilities so you start the one who can get out of a bad play with his feet. FWIW, I don't think either was much of a leader. I'm not dissing either guy, I think both gave what they had, but they were both basically recruiting misses.
This post was edited on 8/2/15 at 8:03 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
203157 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

Again, stating facts about a qbs career doesn't mean I'm related to him.





I have never seen a person defend a player like you do with JJ... You have said yourself he wasn't a great QB ,yet ANYTIME someone says something negative about him,[even if true] You go apeshit.... I notice you don't defend any other LSU players this way..... Gee I wonder why.... You may not be related to him but I bet you sleep with him.... Why don't you defend AJ like you do JJ??????
Posted by ForeLSU
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
41525 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 8:00 pm to
quote:

I have never seen a person defend a player like you do with JJ


I guess you don't remember StripedMenace then....
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 8:01 pm to
quote:

quote:

Salviati
What's your relation to JJ? Or ARE you JJ?
I don't know him. I never met him. I've never talked to him.

I don't know anyone in his family. I never met any of them. I've never talked to any of them.

The only connection I have to Jefferson is that he was the QB for LSU, and I graduated twice from LSU. That's it.
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
29209 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 8:17 pm to
quote:

I have never seen a person defend a player like you do with JJ


Psst. Peej. Check his screen name. Check JJ's brother's name. You MIGHT put 2 and 2 together.
Posted by LSUFAN2
Tennessee
Member since Jan 2011
2434 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 8:50 pm to
He returned as Anthony Jennings.
Posted by Tiger79
Zachary
Member since Apr 2009
7350 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 10:25 pm to
I think every one excluding myself who commented on this thread should have a 1 month ban! Seriously how in the Frick did this get 600+ comments lol
Posted by RedTigerRulz
BFE
Member since Oct 2013
15317 posts
Posted on 8/2/15 at 11:36 pm to
Mind boggling isn't it? I want Salviati/Ricksdaddy as my lawyers should i ever decide to commit a crime. They are machines....ruthless, driven, loyal to a fault.
Posted by League Champs
Bayou Self
Member since Oct 2012
10340 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:02 am to
quote:

Jefferson's performance, like very other QB under Miles, improved from his initial year to his last.

SEC Regular Season Games

When you have to use selective stats to make your case, then you've already lost the argument. Why leave out Jeffersons stats vs UGA and Bama II for 2011? Both are SEC teams, right?

Below are Jeffersons 2011 stats. They were worse than both his 2009, and 2010 stats, and includes a cupcake game against WKU. Lee's 2011 stats were much better than 2009, and 2010. He was named to ESPNs Sr all-SEC team for Christ sake. Over Jefferson! Forgive me if I take ESPN's word over yours
quote:

2011 61/100 61.0% 737 yards 81.9 avg 6 TD 2 int 138.71 QB rat

Lee improved over 4 years, JJ did not
Posted by BCS Statmaster
Member since Jan 2007
1552 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 4:21 am to
quote:

Jefferson's performance, like very other QB under Miles, improved from his initial year to his last.

SEC Regular Season Games


quote:

When you have to use selective stats to make your case, then you've already lost the argument. Why leave out Jeffersons stats vs UGA and Bama II for 2011? Both are SEC teams, right?


quote:

Lee improved over 4 years, JJ did not


Previously discussed within this thread AD ABSURDUM (pages 27-29) ... arbitrary selection, application/exclusion of 'outliers' without consistency or mathematical justification, etc.

Bottom line ... the games never happened ... Voo Doo disguised as pseudo science.

Salviati claims to have graduated 'twice' from LSU. Obviously the first one didn't count.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 8:06 am to
quote:


When you have to use selective stats to make your case, then you've already lost the argument. Why leave out Jeffersons stats vs UGA and Bama II for 2011? Both are SEC teams, right?
I've explained REPEATEDLY why the SECCG and the BCSSCG were properly excluded from the comparison.

quote:

Below are Jeffersons 2011 stats. They were worse than both his 2009, and 2010 stats, and includes a cupcake game against WKU.
Cupcake games? Lee started against the biggest cupcake of the them all in 2011. And Lee started against 4 of the 5 biggest cupcakes. In 2011, Lee had seven passes against a Top 5 Defense. Two of those seven passes were intercepted.


quote:

Lee was named to ESPNs Sr all-SEC team for Christ sake. Over Jefferson! Forgive me if I take ESPN's word over yours
Jefferson missed the first four games, and did not start until Lee got yanked in the GOTC. Thus, according to ESPN, Jefferson did not have enough starting games to qualify for the award.


quote:

Lee improved over 4 years, JJ did not
Yes, he did.


SEC Regular Season Games
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 10:36 am
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 8:11 am to
quote:

arbitrary selection, application/exclusion of 'outliers' without consistency or mathematical justification, etc.
:sigh:

Jefferson had the three best starting games of the 2011 season. All three of Jefferson's regular season starts were better than all nine of Lee's starts. Lee played against worse teams than Jefferson yet could not produce one of the top three games.

Lee threw a grand total of seven passes against Top 5 Defenses. The SECCG and the BCSCG were both against Top 5 Defenses and they were Championship games. Lee did not play in them. Thus, including them would be improper as those two games are NOT comparable to the regular season games that Lee started.

quote:

Bottom line ... the games never happened ... Voo Doo disguised as pseudo science.
The games happened. Lee did not have to play in them; thus, his stats were preserved by not having to play against Top 5 Defenses.


quote:

Salviati claims to have graduated 'twice' from LSU. Obviously the first one didn't count.
I graduated from LSU. Both degrees count. My analyses and conclusions are rock solid.
Posted by BCS Statmaster
Member since Jan 2007
1552 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 8:15 am to
quote:

My analyses and conclusions are junk science.


Put it on toilet paper, where it belongs.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5548 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 8:51 am to
quote:

quote:

My analyses and conclusions are junk science.
Put it on toilet paper, where it belongs.
Ahhh, so you have no better analysis.

Got it.

You have no way to explain away the fact that ALL of Jefferson's three regular season starts were better than ALL of Lee's nine regular season starts even though Lee played against worse teams than Jefferson.

You have no way to explain away the fact that Lee had THREE regular season starts in which he threw for less than 50% (including Oregon and Kentucky), and Jefferson had 0 regular season starts in which he threw for less than 50%.
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