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re: What happened to Jordan Jefferson over the course of his career

Posted on 8/1/15 at 9:09 am to
Posted by BCS Statmaster
Member since Jan 2007
1552 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 9:09 am to
quote:

I agree


What idiot said that ... this is TD!

Good Morning.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
6803 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 9:11 am to
quote:

All these wonderful stats don't matter at all.

The only one that matters is this one immutable truth:

11-17 53 yds and 1 pick....in what was arguably the biggest game in LSU history.

There is no metric to explain this. And for those saying JL would have fared no better......there is no metric to predict that either with any certainty. His hands are clean where that game is concerned.
Miles and JJ share the blame for that debacle, and unfortunately for JJ, this will be his legacy at LSU.

Jefferson's legacy is not one game. His performance, like very other QB under Miles, improved from his initial year to his last.

SEC Regular Season Games

You cannot rationally describe Jefferson's career by one game. Only irrational emotion would cause that kind of result.

It's even more irrational to label a player by one game considering that without Jefferson's play in prior games, LSU does not even play in the BCSCG. Jefferson's performance in the GOTC helped to win the game, and his performance against Arkansas was very good. If LSU does not win those games, LSU does not make it to the BCSCG.

His performance in the second half of the SECCG was an integral part of that victory. Tyrann Mathieu sparked the team and played amazingly, but Jefferson led the team to FOUR offensive TDs.

And you can't reasonably blame Jefferson for the loss in the BCSCG. He completed almost 65% of his passes. There are at least six reasons why LSU lost the BCSCG:


1. LSU did not run well against top five defenses. In the first half of the SECCG, LSUs' RBs gained 21 yards on 9 attempts. That's 2.3 YPC. On one possession, Jefferson completed a 9 yard pass on first down. LSU's RBs ran the ball twice and could not get the first down. The first half of the SECCG sucked for the entire LSU offense. During the BCSCG, LSU's RBs gained 24 yards for the whole game.

The problem with the BCSCG and the first half of the SECCG is that LSU's offense did not work against those defenses. The problem was the offensive line. For the BCSCG, the O-line couldn’t move the Bama D-line, and they couldn’t hold them back either. There was no run game, and there was no time to pass.

In nearly every series of the BCSCG, the offense line failed to execute on at least one play. Bama had the best defense in college football. It would have been difficult to beat Bama unless they made a costly mistake or the offense executed at a very high level.


2. The GOTC loss motivated Bama to better prepare for and play the NC game. Bama was playing for redemption. Bama was very well-prepared for the game. The Bama defense was fully prepared to shut down the option. The Bama defense was fully prepared to shut down LSU's deep threat.


3. Bama lost the GOTC with their prior offensive strategy, so they were forced to abandon it. Bama took greater risks to win the BCCG. The Bama offense went in a completely different direction than it had all season. Bama relied on McCarron and passing rather than Richardson and rushing to move the ball. Saban took the ball out of Richardson’s hands and made McCarron win the game. Bama threw on nearly every first down. It was a risky strategy, but what did Bama have to lose? They had already lost to LSU trying to run the ball. McCarron had a terrific night; thus, the strategy worked.


4. Even though Bama had flipped its offensive strategy, it does not necessarily mean that LSU should have inserted Lee at any point in the NC game. Hindsight is always 20/20, and we know now that LSU’s plan did not work. However, LSU trailed Arkansas 14-0 in the second quarter. The offense came around in the second quarter, and LSU blew out Arkansas. LSU trailed Georgia 10-0 at the half in the SECCG. The offense was atrocious the first half but came around in the second half, and LSU blew out Georgia. With a few dozen plays left, it was not unreasonable for Miles to go with the strategy that worked so well in the two previous games. It was at least as reasonable as trying a QB that was the antithesis of the ideal QB to use against Bama.

CONTINUED

This post was edited on 8/1/15 at 9:14 am
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
6803 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 9:11 am to
CONTINUED

5. Jefferson was the right choice for the entire game. Lee would have been ineffective. Jefferson in the pocket slowed down the Bama rush because Bama used a mush rush to contain Jefferson and prevent him from running. It’s the same idea LSU used against Manziel to keep him from breaking off long runs. Slow the rush and contain the QB. Bama would not have used a mush rush against Lee because Lee is no threat to run.

So if Miles put in Lee, there’s still no run game, and now there is even less time to pass. If there is one thing Bama feasted on, it was immobile pocket passers. Lee’s historic numbers against Bama confirm this fact. His QB Rating against Bama could fit in a shoe box.


Lee was efficient, but not prolific.

During 2011, "efficient" is the single word that defined Lee. You'll be hard pressed to find a post about Lee without the word "efficient" just a few words away. The thing about being defined as “efficient” is that it means that you aren’t a prolific passer; you don’t throw it a lot. In fact, it typically means that the offense is run-oriented and passes infrequently. Prior to the GOTC, Lee averaged less than 20 passes per game. Lee had only one game in 2011 in which he threw for more than 200 yards: 213 yards against Mississippi State. Lee wasn’t a prolific passer. He was efficient.

Efficient does not work when you can’t run.

Efficient works when your team can run the ball effectively. Efficient means that the defense is focused on stopping the run. Efficient means that the defense is not expecting a pass. Efficient means that you have time to throw because the defense is not focused on stopping the pass. Efficient does not work when you aren’t running well. Efficient does not work when your line can’t block. Bama’s D was suffocating that night. Bama would have killed Lee.


Jefferson was a better QB than Lee.

Jefferson's three regular season starts in 2011 were the three best offensive games of the season.

It wasn't that one of Jefferson's games was better than one of Lee's games. It wasn't that the average of Jefferson's three starts was better than the average of Lee's starts. Every regular season game that Jefferson started was better than every regular season game that Lee started.

LSU's best rushing game happened when Jefferson started.

LSU's best total offense game happened when Jefferson started.

LSU's best completion percentage game happened when Jefferson started.

In the nine games that Lee started during the regular season, LSU gained over 400 yards just once. In the three games that Jefferson started during the regular season, LSU gained more than 400 yards in every game. Every game.

Jefferson had better regular season passing numbers than Lee.

Compare regular season numbers. Jefferson had better passing numbers than Lee: higher Completion %; higher QB Rating; higher YPA; lower Interception %. And that's not even mentioning how much Jefferson improved the team's rushing attack. LSU rushed for over 250 yards in every game of Jefferson’s three starts.

Lee threw for over 200 yards (213) just once in nine games. Jefferson threw for more than 200 yards (208) once in just three games.

Jefferson completed 100% of his passes against Ole Miss. Lee never completed 100% of his passes in any of his starts, not even against Northwestern State, an FCS school.

In Lee's nine regular season starts, he completed less than 50% of his passes three times. In Jefferson's three starts, he always completed more than 55% of his passes.

Jefferson (2011 Regular Season)
64.3%, 9.34 YPA, 5 TDs, 1 INT, INT% 1.43%, Overall Rating 163.48

Lee (2011 Regular Season)
62.3%, 7.82 YPA, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, INT% 1.80%, Overall Rating 152.04

Post-season numbers cannot be compared. Jefferson played in the Championship games. Lee didn't

Jefferson was more efficient than Lee

From the moment that Jefferson threw his first pass in the Florida game in 2011, he had a higher QB Rating than Lee. Jefferson had a better efficiency rating than Lee, and that better efficiency continued for the rest of the regular season. That's right, from his first pass until the end of the regular season, Jefferson was more efficient than Lee.

So when folks say that Lee was an efficient QB, the "most efficient" QB in the SEC or in the nation, at no point during the regular season, from the time Jefferson threw his first pass until the end of the regular season, was Lee more efficient than Jefferson.


6. LSU should not have been playing Bama. LSU beat Bama at their house in the Game of the Century. You play the hand you’re dealt, but it was a raw deal.


The Jefferson haters have refused to post or do more than barely acknowledge that Jefferson added a major dimension that Lee could not. Jefferson's record setting 1,018 career rushing yards is more than 25% of Lee's career passing yards. It's a truly significant number of rushing yards.

Moreover, not only did Jefferson run the ball better than Lee, LSU as a team ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB.

The common meme on this board is that Lee was the better passer and Jefferson was the better runner. The truth is:
(1) Jefferson was a better runner,
(2) the LSU offense ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB, and
(3) AT BEST, Lee was an equivalent passer to Jefferson.

The only thing that is debatable is the extent to which Jefferson was a better passer.
Posted by BCS Statmaster
Member since Jan 2007
1552 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 9:16 am to
quote:

The only thing that is debatable is the extent to which Jefferson was a better passe


We may need to debate Archer vs. Hallman.
Posted by RedTigerRulz
BFE
Member since Oct 2013
15317 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 9:28 am to
quote:

Jefferson was the right choice for the entire game. Lee would have been ineffective.


You don't know this with 100% certainty. There is no way to know this because we didn't put JL in the game.
How do you know he doesn't come in and throw a 60-yard TD on his first pass....maybe the CB slips and our receiver waltzes in the endzone for a TD that gives us momentum and hope. We don't know that wouldn't have happened.
There are too many intangibles in football to state as a matter of irrefutable fact that JL would have been ineffective.
It is a fact that JJ was ineffective. Had Miles inserted JL into the lineup and then he had proceeded to get shelled, at least we could say well we tried everything it just wasn't our night.
We waved the white flag early in that game. I would think you would exhaust all possibilities in a game of that magnitude rather than continue to force a square peg in a round hole.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
6803 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 10:13 am to
quote:

quote:

The only thing that is debatable is the extent to which Jefferson was a better passer
We may need to debate Archer vs. Hallman.


Archer vs. Hallman is a dead issue. You'll rarely see a post about it.


On the other hand, Jefferson vs. Lee is very much a live issue. Whether Miles should have played Jefferson or Lee is very much a live issue. In fact, the interplay of those two issues may be the biggest shadow over LSU football today.

Almost daily, you can read a post stating that Miles had an irrational preference for Jefferson over Lee. Almost daily, you can read a poster justify their hatred or total lack of faith in Miles because Jefferson played the entirety of the BCSCG. Some peoples' memories of the BCSCG remain warped by anger and frustration. You can still find people who ignorantly post that LSU never crossed the 50-yard line in the BCSCG.


Some people say Jefferson vs. Lee is dead. All you have to do is look at the complaints about Jennings or Miles to see that Jefferson vs. Lee is very much alive, and it still casts a shadow over the entire LSU football program.


One of my main points in discussing Jefferson is the very simple point that reasonable minds can disagree. You can disagree a person's choice but still agree that the person's choice was reasonable. There are different ways to score from the two-yard line, and reasonable minds can disagree as to which play is the best play to call.

I believe that reasonable minds can disagree on whether Miles should have substituted Lee for Jefferson in the BCSCG. Lee might have mixed things up. Lee might have sparked the team. However, the odds were not in Lee's favor. He was exactly the kind of QB that Alabama's defense feasted on: an immobile pocket passer. His history against Alabama confirms that statement, and his hisotry against Alabama can be fairly described as abysmal.

On the other hand, Jefferson as QB slowed the Bama rushed down. Moreover, Jefferson's ability to lead a second half comeback in 2011 was rock solid before the BCSCG.


Many fans did not think at halftime of the GOTC that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, in OT, Jefferson executed a perfect short-side option to Ford which put LSU in position for victory.

LSU beat Alabama at their house in the GOTC.


Many fans did not think with four minutes left in the half and LSU trailing 14-7 against Arkansas that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, Jefferson passed for 208 yards, LSU's second highest passing total of the season, and Jefferson rushed for an additional 53 yards, all against the #3 team in the nation which positioned LSU for victory.

LSU blew the doors off of Arkansas, won the SEC West, and earned an invitation in the SECCG.


Many fans did not think at halftime with LSU trailing 10-7 to Georgia in the SECCG that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, Jefferson executed options and zone reads to near perfection, and he threw a TD pass to Hilliard as LSU's offense scored FOUR TDs against a Top Five defense in their own backyard.

LSU rushed for over 200 yards, and Jefferson being the QB was an integral part of that, and LSU blew out Georgia and earned the right to play in the BCSCG.


So, of course, many fans did not think at halftime of Jan 9 that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. Unfortunately, the stars were aligned against LSU that night. They never got the spark they needed against a totally amped up Alabama team that was desperate for redemption. However, Jefferson completed nearly 65% of his passes despite his porous offensive line. Had LSU been able to continue to switch it up and throw more in the second half of the BCSCG, it might have been a different story. However, the line could not hold Alabama back long enough to give Jefferson time to throw.


Jefferson played in FOUR huge games in 2011: the GOTC, the Arkansas game, the SECCG, and the BCSCG. At halftime, or four minutes before the half, LSU was losing in each of those games. Nevertheless, Miles showed faith in his starting QB, and Jefferson delivered in every game but one.

Thus, in my opinion, given the three HUGE games before the BCSCG, a reasonable mind could rationally choose to stick with Jefferson for the second half of the BCSCG because it had worked well in the three previous HUGE games.

I believe that reasonable minds can CERTAINLY differ on whether leaving Jefferson in, substituting Lee for Jefferson, was the best strategy.
Posted by BCS Statmaster
Member since Jan 2007
1552 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 10:17 am to
quote:

Archer vs. Hallman is a dead issue. You'll rarely see a post about it.


Exactly, but we can bring Stovall into the equation ... wouldn't want to exclude data points.

Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
283718 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 10:18 am to
First year he wasn't asked to do a lot. Many short, underneath passes for a few yards, don't take off running, etc. When his game expanded, his effectiveness dropped.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
6803 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 10:25 am to
quote:

quote:

Jefferson was the right choice for the entire game. Lee would have been ineffective.
You don't know this with 100% certainty. There is no way to know this because we didn't put JL in the game.
You're right. I don't know that with 100% certainty. No coach in the history of football can know with 100% certainty what will happen in any game. The coach has to play the percentages, and different reasonable coaches might calculate the percentages differently. However, I think you have to agree that a reasonable coach might reasonably determine that the percentages would indicate that Lee would probably be ineffective against Alabama on that night.


quote:

How do you know he doesn't come in and throw a 60-yard TD on his first pass....maybe the CB slips and our receiver waltzes in the endzone for a TD that gives us momentum and hope. We don't know that wouldn't have happened.
There are too many intangibles in football to state as a matter of irrefutable fact that JL would have been ineffective.
You're right. No coach in the history of football can know with 100% certainty what will happen in any game. The coach has to play the percentages, and different reasonable coaches might calculate the percentages differently. However, I think you have to agree that a reasonable coach might reasonably decide that the percentages would indicate that Lee was unlikely to come in and throw a 60-yard TD on his first pass, and that it was unlikely for the CB to slip and our receiver waltzes in the endzone for a TD that gives us momentum and hope.

I think you also have to agree that a reasonable coach might reasonably decide that the percentages would indicate that Jefferson was just as likely as Lee to come in and throw a 60-yard TD on his first pass of the next possession, and that it was just as likely for the CB to slip and our receiver waltzes in the endzone for a TD that gives us momentum and hope.


quote:

It is a fact that JJ was ineffective.
You're right. However, during the BCSCG, Miles did not have the benefit of hindsight that you enjoy now that game is over. You know NOW how Jefferson performed. However, Miles did not know THEN how Jefferson would perform.


quote:

Had Miles inserted JL into the lineup and then he had proceeded to get shelled, at least we could say well we tried everything it just wasn't our night.
We waved the white flag early in that game. I would think you would exhaust all possibilities in a game of that magnitude rather than continue to force a square peg in a round hole.
I believe that reasonable minds can disagree on whether Miles should have substituted Lee for Jefferson in the BCSCG. Lee might have mixed things up. Lee might have sparked the team. However, the odds were not in Lee's favor. He was exactly the kind of QB that Alabama's defense feasted on: an immobile pocket passer. His history against Alabama confirms that statement, and his hisotry against Alabama can be fairly described as abysmal.

On the other hand, Jefferson as QB slowed the Bama rushed down. Moreover, Jefferson's ability to lead a second half comeback in 2011 was rock solid before the BCSCG.


Many fans did not think at halftime of the GOTC that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, in OT, Jefferson executed a perfect short-side option to Ford which put LSU in position for victory.

LSU beat Alabama at their house in the GOTC.


Many fans did not think with four minutes left in the half and LSU trailing 14-7 against Arkansas that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, Jefferson passed for 208 yards, LSU's second highest passing total of the season, and Jefferson rushed for an additional 53 yards, all against the #3 team in the nation which positioned LSU for victory.

LSU blew the doors off of Arkansas, won the SEC West, and earned an invitation in the SECCG.


Many fans did not think at halftime with LSU trailing 10-7 to Georgia in the SECCG that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. However, Jefferson executed options and zone reads to near perfection, and he threw a TD pass to Hilliard as LSU's offense scored FOUR TDs against a Top Five defense in their own backyard.

LSU rushed for over 200 yards, and Jefferson being the QB was an integral part of that, and LSU blew out Georgia and earned the right to play in the BCSCG.


So, of course, many fans did not think at halftime of Jan 9 that Jefferson was going to bring LSU to victory. Unfortunately, the stars were aligned against LSU that night. They never got the spark they needed against a totally amped up Alabama team that was desperate for redemption. However, Jefferson completed nearly 65% of his passes despite his porous offensive line. Had LSU been able to continue to switch it up and throw more in the second half of the BCSCG, it might have been a different story. However, the line could not hold Alabama back long enough to give Jefferson time to throw.


Jefferson played in FOUR huge games in 2011: the GOTC, the Arkansas game, the SECCG, and the BCSCG. At halftime, or four minutes before the half, LSU was losing in each of those games. Nevertheless, Miles showed faith in his starting QB, and Jefferson delivered in every game but one.

Thus, in my opinion, given the three HUGE games before the BCSCG, a reasonable mind could rationally choose to stick with Jefferson for the second half of the BCSCG because it had worked well in the three previous HUGE games.

I believe that reasonable minds can CERTAINLY differ on whether leaving Jefferson in, substituting Lee for Jefferson, was the best strategy.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
6803 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 10:27 am to
quote:

quote:

Archer vs. Hallman is a dead issue. You'll rarely see a post about it.
Exactly, but we can bring Stovall into the equation ... wouldn't want to exclude data points.


Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 11:01 am to
quote:

I believe that reasonable minds can disagree on whether Miles should have substituted Lee for Jefferson in the BCSCG. Lee might have mixed things up. Lee might have sparked the team. However, the odds were not in Lee's favor. He was exactly the kind of QB that Alabama's defense feasted on: an immobile pocket passer. His history against Alabama confirms that statement, and his hisotry against Alabama can be fairly described as abysmal.



in the regular season game, the refs let Bama hit Lee late and knock hIm out of the game. Lee was better. Much. Lee was all SEC senior team QB.
Posted by LSU Groupee
Member since Oct 2012
4026 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 11:09 am to
quote:

You don't know this with 100% certainty.


That's all you got, huh.

The Lee career against Alabama was a pathetic failure. The Alabama defensive line fricking owned the LSU offensive line to the point that our most mobile QB was running for his life most of the game.

Those two statements are not my opinion, but facts that anyone with his head not stuck up his arse could easily see. Lee had one TD and seven interceptions in his career when he could both hand the ball off and throw. What in the frick do you think was going to happen when our offensive line was being bent over and fricked already and every swinging dick in the stadium knew he had to throw?

This try everything crap to be able to say we tried everything is the dumbest shite ever.

Posted by caljammer82
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Member since Dec 2006
789 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 12:04 pm to
Who gives a flying frick? My favorite day as an LSU alum was JJ's last game.
Posted by TickledTiger
Down & Out
Member since Dec 2007
2837 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Who gives a flying frick? My favorite day as an LSU alum was JJ's last game.

Amen
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

caljammer82


Your favorite day as an LSU alum was getting shut out in the BCSNC against a team that you had already beaten earlier in the year?

Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
47444 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

Lee was better. Much.


Except FACTS PROVE YOU WRONG. I'll take facts over your opinion anyday.
Posted by logjamming
Member since Feb 2014
8187 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Except FACTS PROVE YOU WRONG. I'll take facts over your opinion anyday.



Yeah. Look at his padded stats from situational playing time in 2011 and starts against garbage teams. I'll look at his last two starts against the best defenses Jefferson faced. Easy to put up numbers when you get inserted into the game once your team is on te 5 yard line.
This post was edited on 8/1/15 at 3:28 pm
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
47444 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Who gives a flying frick? My favorite day as an LSU alum was JJ's last game.





God I hate our ignorant fans.
JJ gave more to lsu football than your entire bloodline, combined.
If you were to start a poll asking lsu fans if they would sign up for lsu to have a 3 year starter (JJ didn't start 3 year) that would finish top 6 in every major passing statistic in lsu history, EVERY SINGLE ONE WOULD SIGN UP IN A SECOND.
This board is so jaded by some slight they THINK JLEE got because of JJ. Let's be honest. If JJ isn't arrested for a damn bar fight,JLEE never takes a snap in 2011.
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
47444 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

Yeah. Look at his padded stats from situational playing time in 2011 and starts against garbage teams. I'll look at his last two starts against the best defenses Jefferson faced. Easy to put up numbers when you get inserted into the game once your team is on te 5 yard line.


I guess you missed where JJ had 52% of our entire offensive output against #3 arky and where he had 48% of our entire offensive output against #2 Bama.
There is no passing statistic that paints JLEE as much better.
JJ has better career qb rating,better career compl %, better career td/int ratio. Even in 2011 from the Florida game on (JJ's first pass) JJ had better passing stats than JLEE.
You can come to the conclusion that JLEE may have been better drop back passer but neither was MUCH better than the other one AND FACTS PROVE IT. the only the either qb was much better than the other at was running and we both know who that is JJ.
Posted by logjamming
Member since Feb 2014
8187 posts
Posted on 8/1/15 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

I guess you missed where JJ had 52% of our entire offensive output against #3 arky and where he had 48% of our entire offensive output against #2 Bama.


Well, generally you will account for about half of the offense of a team when you're the QB.

Regardless, I said it before in this thread: the dislike for Jefferson has more to do with his attitude than anything else. He may have been Mr. All American in person, but he came off as a bit of a jerk on camera. The "superman" look-at-me-celebration he did from time to time in 2011, the bar fight, Finebaum's allegations that he was at Harrah's until 2AM the night before the title game and some of his interviews to the press did very little to help his image among LSU fans.
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