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Message
re: The Myth of LSU-Oregon 2011. Lee was terrible.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 11:59 am to CptBengal
Posted on 7/30/13 at 11:59 am to CptBengal
quote:
So you're saying that in just a couple series Lee was able to rack up nearly as many passing yards against Bama as JJ did against UGA and Bama in playing 2 whole games?
First of all, your math is terrible. 24=/=87 which is JJ's totals from those games, not to mention JJ had 67 in half a game on 11/5 while Lee had 24.
Oh yeah, AND TWO frickING INTERCEPTIONS.
That doesn't count in your mind as opposed to a few yards that might get a first down or two????
quote:
wow, way to shoot your own idiotic argument down in one quick play. well done!
Yeah, clearly you've got me beat in the logical reasoning department
2
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:02 pm to Mo Jeaux
Wait I'm acting like the badass??
You're the one who told me to "get the hell out of here".
You are clearly a much more hard core tough guy typer than I am. I don't pretend otherwise.
You're the one who told me to "get the hell out of here".
You are clearly a much more hard core tough guy typer than I am. I don't pretend otherwise.
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:05 pm to AlaTiger
Oh man, I remember when I started this thread after the game and got railed for it.
Not even gonna bother but I imagine the usual suspects are back defending again.
Not even gonna bother but I imagine the usual suspects are back defending again.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:09 pm to OBUDan
Dan, didn't you bring the screenshots to the Rant? that was awesome.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:10 pm to ATLTiger
That was my goal, yes. 
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:14 pm to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
Oh yeah, AND TWO frickING INTERCEPTIONS.
Yeh, lee was rattled and needed to be benched that game for bad play.
But for the whole season?
Pretty weird, especially since he had done so well all year long (13 TDs and 3 INT's in 8 games)
Want to see bad?
JJ against Tennessee in 2010 where he was 3/10 for 30 yards and 2 INT's.
he had the one TD on the first play of the game, then nothing after that Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:22 pm to TheDoc
quote:
Yeh, lee was rattled and needed to be benched that game for bad play.
But for the whole season?
Pretty weird, especially since he had done so well all year long (13 TDs and 3 INT's in 8 games)
I actually said the same thing at the time. I was way more upset that Lee didn't play in the blowout against OM.
But I really think Miles just knew Lee was a goner against a D like Bama or UGA. He saw him practice all year against our elite D and I think he knew it was a lost cause.
quote:
Want to see bad?
JJ against Tennessee in 2010 where he was 3/10 for 30 yards and 2 INT's. he had the one TD on the first play of the game, then nothing after that
Yup. And Miles yanked JJ too. Lee put us in position to win that game for us, although he did throw a pick too.
Lee was even better the next week against UF too, although JJ played well too. And he'd never have the chance to win that with the great TD pass if the bounce fake FG play doesn't work (still the luckiest play in LSU history IMO. Seriously, that was a straight up fluke. I can see why Meyer "retired" from the SEC because of it
) Miles was not in love with JJ like so many want to believe. When Lee gave us the best chance to win, he played. That just wasn't the case against Bama.
Hell, even after the first pick on 11/5, he got another chance, and damned if he didn't throw an uglier pick than the first one.
It sucks, and is hard to believe, but JJ was our best option to keep the game close so the D/ST could win it and they just couldn't. Sucks, but it is what it is.
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:24 pm to TheDoc
quote:
JJ against Tennessee in 2010 where he was 3/10 for 30 yards and 2 INT's. he had the one TD on the first play of the game, then nothing after that
Definitely, but he also broke an 80 yd TD run on the first drive, part of the reason the staff liked Jefferson more.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 12:53 pm to Tiger_n_ATL
quote:
the inability of Les Miles teams to put inferior opponents away, along with the lack of focus after losing the Bama game or other big SEC games, have become a hallmark for this program in recent years
LSU is 34-6 in recent years with an SEC title and a BCSCG appearance. They rank third in wins in the BCS since 2010. They are 21-5 in the SEC recently which is the top SEC record. Three of their loses have been to teams that ended the year #1 ranked. They have loss to one team that didn't finish the year ranked in the top 10 and that was to a 12th ranked Arkansas on the road in 2010.
The only hallmark of LSU teams under Miles in his career at LSU and recently that I care about has been of elite results.
Anyone crapping on the Miles record of achievement is a fricking tool and fool.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:09 pm to Mayhawman
quote:
quote:
Sometimes the stupidity of this board actually takes me breath away.
Nice grandstanding.
quote:
You do recognize that we played one more game in 2011 than we did in 2008 right? If so, why the hell are you posting total yards? Let's look at the relevant statistic
OK, I reposted the stats that are irrelevant of number of games played.
2008- 5.4ypp
2011- 5.7ypp
Mayhawman, this analysis is just illogical.
Why do you believe that you can compare yards per play across different seasons and reach any sort of meaningful conclusions?
Yards per play isn't the best metric for gauging offensive potency. I'll demonstrate.
Let's imagine team A gets the ball on their ten yard line four times. Each time, Team A gains five yards per play and marches down the field to score a touchdown on 18 play drives. 28 points, 360 total yards, average yards per play: 5.
Now imagine team B gets the ball on their ten yard line four times. On the first three drives, they gain three yards a play and go three and out. On the fourth drive, they score a TD on the first play with a 90 yard bomb. 7 points, 99 total yards, average yards per play: 9.9 (not including punts), 7.6 (including punts).
Obviously, Team A has a more potent offense (28 points, 360 yards) than Team B (7 points, 99 yards). Nonetheless, according your flawed metric, Team B has the better offense because they averaged more yards per play!
That conclusion is wrong, of course, because yards per play can be inflated by a combination of three and outs and big gains.
Total yards per game is the appropriate method for ascertaining offensive consistency and potency. (Note: Points per game isn't the optimal approach either, because it is skewed by special teams and defensive scores, which contribute to the points total. Tyrann's batted INT against WVU is the quintessential example of this phenomena. He made an incredible defensive play, took the ball, and was tackled at the one. The offense trotted on and ran for the final yard. Obviously, the offense deserves little or no credit for that score, but it counts towards the points per game calculation).
Finally, it's difficult to compare raw yardage data of any type across seasons because such a direct comparison fails to account for changes in athleticism, rules (e.g. clock rules, changing interpretations of penalties), and playcalling systems that affect the game over time. Instead, it's rational to see how the respective teams rated against their contemporaneous competition -- who all played in the same context -- and then compare those rankings.
As I said, 2008 LSU ranked 55th in total offense, while 2011 ranked 86th or somesuch. Further, I conceded that I was being generous when I called the 2008 offense potent. You can make an argument it wasn't and that the last time we really had an elite offense was 2007. However, you CANNOT make any cogent argument that the 2011 offense was potent. That team was carried by its special teams and defense, which I believe was one of the OP's points.
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:22 pm to LSU Groupee
quote:
tool and fool
Need to go to school and learn the rules.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:25 pm to The312
quote:
As I said, 2008 LSU ranked 55th in total offense, while 2011 ranked 86th or somesuch
2011 ranking was 73 which was forth best in the SEC.
The scoring offense ranked 12th in the nation and #1 in the SEC.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:28 pm to The312
quote:
That conclusions is wrong, of course, because yards per play can be inflated by a combination of three and outs and big gains.
Not really, there's enough plays per year to even out the effects of 3 & outs and big gains. Your 2 extreme scenarios don't really prove anything.
quote:
Total yards per game is the appropriate method for ascertaining offensive consistency and potency.
I could make up some scenario to show how yards per game is skewed by field position or possessions to point out the an offense would get penalized for having too good of a defense or special teams.
quote:
However, you CANNOT make any cogent argument that the 2011 offense was potent.
Sure you can. 93.4% red zone success and 44.71% 3rd down conversion rate.
2007 offense: 93.3% red zone success and 46.64% 3rd down conversion rate.
2011: 23 turnovers and 67 punts with an average TOP of 31:29
2007: 25 turnovers and 61 punts with an average TOP of 32:15
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:31 pm to LSU Groupee
quote:
quote:
As I said, 2008 LSU ranked 55th in total offense, while 2011 ranked 86th or somesuch
2011 ranking was 73 which was forth best in the SEC.
No sir. LSU finished the entire season ranked 86th in total offense.
LINK
Bama, Arkansas, and UGA were all in the Top 40.
But whether it as 73rd or 86th, the offense certainly wasn't "elite" or "potent."
quote:
The scoring offense ranked 12th in the nation and #1 in the SEC.
As I explained at length above, this metric, like yards per play, is deeply flawed because it includes scores that should be attributed to special teams and the defense.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:35 pm to EarthwormJim
quote:
Not really, there's enough plays per year to even out the effects of 3 & outs and big gains. Your 2 extreme scenarios don't really prove anything.
quote:
Total yards per game is the appropriate method for ascertaining offensive consistency and potency.
I could make up some scenario to show how yards per game is skewed by field position or possessions to point out the an offense would get penalized for having too good of a defense or special teams.
Totally wrong. I've already analyzed this at length in other threads. But to put the argument to bed very quickly, BAMA 2011, UGA 2011, and LSU 2003 all had Top 40 total offenses despite having defenses/special teams that were as good or better than 2011 LSU's. There is no necessary inverse correlation between defense/special teams and total offense.
Bottom line: Total yards per game is the best metric of offensive consistency and potency. LSU's 2011 offense was neither consistent nor potent. The squad was carried by its special teams and defense. Frankly, you don't even need statistics to demonstrate this. Anyone with functioning neurons who watched the games objectively would agree.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:39 pm to The312
quote:
There is no necessary inverse correlation between defense/special teams and total offense
Key word there. Just like there is no necessary inversre correlation between 3&out/long plays and yards per play.
quote:
Total yards per game is the best metric of offensive consistency and potency. LSU's 2011 offense was neither consistent nor potent
Not really if you want to measure consistency and potency all you have to do is look at 3rd down and red zone percentages.
In the same number of games the 2011 squad had 6 more punts and 2 less turnovers than the 2007 squad, yet the 2007 offense is the only one considered consistent or potent?
Also in 2007 the D and special teams scored 7 TDs, meaning the offense scored 458 points or 32.7 PPG, still putting them in the top 30 for scoring offense.
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 2:25 pm to The312
quote:
No sir
You are correct.
What's the big deal you have with having an elite offense? It would be nice to have, but we don't need one to be an elite team.
Alabama has done pretty good recently without an elite offense.
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 2:32 pm to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
24=/=87 which is JJ's totals from those games,
87 yds in 2 full games. Obviously such play is amazing...and far above the 24 yards Lee got in 1 quarter.
Oh wait, 24*4=96.
keep spinning for JJ.Posted on 7/30/13 at 2:36 pm to The312
quote:
Bottom line: Total yards per game is the best metric of offensive consistency and potency. LSU's 2011 offense was neither consistent nor potent. The squad was carried by its special teams and defense. Frankly, you don't even need statistics to demonstrate this. Anyone with functioning neurons who watched the games objectively would agree.
What is your point in making this argument?
I agree that we weren't some offensive juggernaut like some people would like to remember, but I don't think it's so offensive to suggest that we were consistent or potent.
Our running game was intimidating to any team outside of Tuscaloosa.
We rushed for over 200 yards a game and 35 TDs in 13 games. That is impressive in and of itself.
Combine that with a passing game that was efficient and effective, completing over 60% of our passes with 21 TDs and 5 INTs in 13 games, and you've got yourself an offense that can win championships with a great defense against 99% of teams in the country.
Unfortunately, Alabama had a defense that could shut down our running game and our passing game, but ONE TEAM being built to shut your O down doesn't make it inconsistent or impotent. Especially if you only had to face that team once.
Obviously we weren't Oregon or OSU, but I just don't see why you're so worked up over an offense that got the job done very well against 12 of the 13 teams on our schedule
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 2:39 pm to CptBengal
quote:
87 yds in 2 full games. Obviously such play is amazing...and far above the 24 yards Lee got in 1 quarter.
Oh wait, 24*4=96.
keep spinning for JJ.
So Lee threw 2 INTs in ONE QUARTER
2 INTs*4=8 INTs
This is fun. You're right, let's keep spinning
But yeah those 96 yards are worth the 8 picks!! We'll get em good!!
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 2:43 pm
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