re: PREVIEW: LSU vs Michigan State March 29th 6:09pm CBS

I hope we’re attacking and not settling (unless it’s something like Mays in rhythm or Days in the corner)

A big thing no one has really discussed from the Maryland game is how aggressive Nas was off the dribble from the top of the key. I kept waiting for him to shoot it but before they zoned up he was looking to make plays off the bounce and that really helped get us out to that double digit lead.

Couple corrections and additions:

Winston's backup is not a walk-on. Winston was in foul trouble in the B1G tournament, and a true freshman back-up point guard went off on Ohio State. That said, he rarely gets enough minutes to make such an impact. Izzo wants Winston on the floor all the time.

It is true that the primary 3 point shooters are McQuaid (2 guard) (shooting north of 43% from 3 in conference play), Winston, and Goins (stretch 4). I believe Goins and Winston are north of 38% in conference play from 3. However, Aaron Henry (3 guard) will take the shot if left open and hit 2 against Minnesota this past Saturday.

The two centers, Tillman and Ward, present completely different games. Ward is a load, and has nice touch around the rim, and MSU fed him from the wing constantly until he broke his hand. He is an average post defender, a marginal ball screen defender, and he is a liability if he switches onto a guard. But he is deceptive insofar as he runs the floor on the break very, very fast.

Tillman is shorter, but very strong, and much faster than Ward. When he is at the 5, MSU plays heavy screen and roll offense, very often screen and re-screen stuff that gets Winston free to drive and leaves McQuaid, Goins, and Henry open for 3 point shots, and Tillman rolls quickly to the rim for lobs. Tillman has been a big scorer for MSU recently, and his season averages don't really tell that tale. If the defense backs off to prevent those things, Winston typically makes it all the way to the rim, or shoots a floater.

Other than perhaps a height issue, Tillman is a superior defender to Ward. He can switch to any position and is fully capable of preventing guard penetration. MSU was able to throw a few defensive curve balls when Tillman began to start in place of Ward.

MSU can present two completely different offensive and defensive philosophies, depending upon who is at the 5, although Ward is noticeably rusty, and wearing a brace on his shooting hand. The bobbled entry passes were the primary culprit in causing 22 turnovers versus Minnesota.

Henry (3) is an X-factor. He is very strong for a true freshman, and leaper. He and McQuaid have become absolutely excellent perimeter defenders. His confidence in his 3 point shot waxes and wanes, but he has excellent passing vision, so that when he penetrates with his speed, he is not always committed to shooting - he can dish. The strength and leaping also translates into rebounds.

You know about McQuaid and Winston.

Goins is at the 4, and he can shoot the 3, and also has good court vision and can dump it down to the 5 on the block effectively. he also rebounds like crazy. I think he had 18 in a game. This is unusual for a guy on an Izzo team. Izzo prefers rebounding by committee, but Goins seems to have the Rodman-esque ability to know where and when the ball is coming off, and seems to dominate MSU's rebounding.

Essentially, the offense can come from anywhere, there are 2 guys shooting 38-40% from three, and one shooting in the 42-45% range from 3, plus Aaron Henry. Tillman (5) shoots almost 60% from the floor in conference play.

But the big thing is that Winston can find them. McQuaid scored 27 in the tournament championship in large part owing to other-worldly cross-court passes from Winston. And there are other good passers on the team. I believe MSU averaged 18 assists per game in conference play, and Winston averages 7 or 8 per game. Shot selection is typically very good.

MSU shoots about 78% as a team from the FT line, but I think the percentage has been rising as the season has gone on. I believe Winston and McQuaid are at 80%+

Issues - Always the same with MSU. Shot attempt disparity. Whenever they turn it over, slack on the defensive rebounding or some combination of both, and give the opponent a decided advantage in shot attempts, they lose.

If the fast break is cooking, MSU can survive more of a disparity. However, the injuries have eroded MSU's depth, so MSU has not run as much later in the season. If Ward is at 100%, and given the 6 days of rest, it is possible Izzo will turn them lose more, but no one really knows.


This is a well-connected team that shares the ball, plays defense and can shoot. When they slack on rebounding or kick the ball all over the place, they can be beaten. The rebounding is unlikely to be an issue in the tournament - that is an effort issue and Izzo has the screws tightened. The turnovers? Unknown. I would expect that would be a focus of the LSU game plan.

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ArnoldTPantsEsq

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Thanks for the info! Great stuff.

I see a lot of similarities between our teams with the biggest difference being MSU's ability to shoot the three pointer favoring yall and LSU's ability to turn over opponents being what favors LSU. Seeing which one of these wins out may end up being the main difference.

Thanks for coming by and hope you stay for a while.

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I'll be curious to see how aggressive LSU decides to be on the offensive glass. Extra shot attempts are good. But sending extra people leaves you vulnerable to the fast break, which MSU likes to do. Most conference teams bail after the shot when playing MSU for that reason. MSU will be hoping for more freedom against an unfamiliar opponent.

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LSU will be aggressive on the glass. Coach tracks everything associated with hustling including rebounds, deflections, and defensive stops in three straight possessions. LSU drops players playing time if they aren't going for rebounds on at least 80% of shots. It hasn't really hurt LSU in transition to this point so I don't see the Tigers backing down.

I am not. I don't post much at all anywhere, so I'm not a member of a paysite. Maybe in the future tho.

I agree with that. The only part with the refs letting them play that MSU struggles with is handchecks. Part of the reason MSU lost to Illinois earlier this year is because Illinois handchecked Winston every single possession. It's not a lot of contact, but it was enough to make Winston uncomfortable. MSU can bang down low with the best of them, so that will be fun to see.

Another thing is that Mcquaid is very underrated on defense. I don't know how many times I've seen opposing fans say their guy was gonna go off against MSU, and Mcquaid just shuts him down. He's quicker than he looks and his form is incredible. I just don't know who he will guard. They need to figure out how to hide Winston because he is our worst defender. He's not that bad anymore (freshman year) but they need to save his energy because I don't think the backup (Loyer) will even play 1 minute due to LSU's quickness.

Where will this game be televised?

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ArnoldTPantsEsq

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Tigerdroppings is a difficult place to come for opposing fans, so it's great that you're here, and you're obviously super involved with MSU basketball.

With that said, the opening statement about Winston's backup not being a Walk-On is true, but lets not remotely act like that's a matchup you want. His stats are those of walk-ons. Marshall Graves for LSU isn't technically a Walk-On but he puts up Walk-On numbers. Loyer scored 14 against Ohio State, but has only score 56 all season long. If he sees more than 4 minutes, you're in trouble. That's not me being an a-hole or being cocky, it means either McQuaid or Winston aren't playing, and I'm sorry, but give me Waters/Smart/Mays over Loyer any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I also have zero doubt in my mind that all of MSU's bigs can score, defend, and play with a level of intensity that Izzo demands. I personally think this LSU team is more troubled by length than by brute strength. Guys like Emmitt Williams for LSU get manhandled by length, but can hold their own against girth and strength. It's part of the reason I feel LSU matches up with MSU along with the depth issues with the guards. I have no doubt Cassius is amazing, but there is a HUGE dropoff after him. However, LSU beat Tennessee without Tremont Waters because of our backup PG.

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They might put McQuaid on Taylor who has struggled offensively in this tournament but played great D at times, especially vs Yale. I’m curious who we put on McQuaid—we’ve had a lot of shooters get hot against us all year. Need to limit clean looks for him.

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McQuaid needs to have a good night shooting IMO, Winston can't do it all.

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Where we struggle with fouls is mostly our bigs getting a bit too aggressive on the offensive glass and going over the back.

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This is my biggest worry with Nick Ward (although he has been pretty good after injury recovery).

This is going to be a pretty even matchup regardless. I think all the S16 games are going to be really good.