re: Penn St. Favored Over LSU

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yea im sure paterno will be the one 'coaching' penn st til their bowl game

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Galen/JayPa and Bradley will hopefully do alright. Joe gets final say and gets to overrule any and all play calling. Which is fine...I'd rather he be a head coach than a coordinator. That's why most of the coaching staff has been here as long as they have (most 20 years or more...some 30+ years.)

the public has their own perception of teams

when the public really likes one team and that team should be getting 4 pts, vegas gives them 2.5 and everyone still bets them +2.5

exactly, everyone is taking LSU +2.5


wouldn't surprise me if vegas thinks we should be getting more

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exactly, everyone is taking LSU +2.5

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Which is why I implied the original line was built upon Vegas's analysis of the teams.

The SEC generally gets favored because the public believes their teams are better on average than teams of other conferences. A Vegas breakdown of the two teams is the only reason I see that it opened -2.5

LSU on the moneyline!!!!!! All day!!!!

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Never believe this. Vegas takes stands on every game. They just figure they will get their juice by winning 50% of the games.

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Sportsbook directors know better than to think they can pick winners better than the public. They will take stands on a few events, but they know that the sportsbook's income is based on vig volume rather than successful handicapping because even picking 50% winners is not guaranteed, and what if you do pick 50% winners but for the same events the 55% of the public also picks the winners? Or what if the favorite, in terms of money being bet, wins 60% of the events you win? In either event the sprotsbook will likely lose money from taking stands.

Having worked with successful sportsbook directors and meeting some others I know that they make house bets on relatively few events. And those occasions are often based on information not available to the general public.