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Started By
Message
re: Opening betting lines on LSU's conference games and Syracuse
Posted on 6/28/15 at 9:04 am to massiveattack
Posted on 6/28/15 at 9:04 am to massiveattack
quote:
Alabama favored by 9 over LSU
Will be betting a large sum on LSU if this is the line come game week
0
Posted on 6/28/15 at 11:06 am to Datbayoubengal
quote:
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And even more people will bitch about what people bitch about on a message board.
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This is never funny. It's just a lame comeback for people who love to bitch about LSU football.
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It is funny to me. You can reply to every thread if you want and say why post if people are just going to bitch about LSU. Actually the comback was pure and utter brilliant and extremely hilarious. It is always funny and never will not be. You are the one in a bad mood bitching about LSU fans whom you obliously have some attitude against.
This post was edited on 6/28/15 at 11:07 am
Posted on 6/29/15 at 2:05 pm to lsumatt
quote:
That's not how it works. LSU could be hypothetically be favored in every single game (let's say 51% chance of winning) and their expected win total would be just over 6 games.
According to probability charts, there is a ~75% chance to win when you are favored by 7 points; greater % on lines larger than 7.
Based on the lines above, that % applies for 7 games.
It's ~60% on lines around 3.
O8.5 is the bet.
This post was edited on 6/29/15 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 6/29/15 at 2:22 pm to massiveattack
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/29/15 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 6/29/15 at 2:38 pm to massiveattack
I don't get the Ole Miss love. They're breaking in a new QB and had several other personnel losses.
Posted on 6/29/15 at 2:55 pm to massiveattack
The only one of those in which I would take LSU is the A&M game. I'd take the opponent in at least three games (Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas). The others I probably wouldn't touch, although getting 20 with Syracuse in the Carrier Dome would be tempting.
Posted on 6/29/15 at 3:03 pm to tigercross
According to those lines and the expected percentage chance of winning each game based on its line, expected win total in the 8 SEC games plus Syracuse would be
.57 (AU) + .57 (MS) + .99 (SU) + .74 (SC) + .85 (UF) + .25 (AL) + .51 (AR) + .5 (UM) + .73 (AM) = 5.71
Assuming a virtually 100% chance of winning in the other three non-conference games, then the expected win total for the season would be about 8.7, slightly higher than the line of 8.5, so these lines, if reasonable, suggest a very slight advantage to the over on 8.5 wins.
.57 (AU) + .57 (MS) + .99 (SU) + .74 (SC) + .85 (UF) + .25 (AL) + .51 (AR) + .5 (UM) + .73 (AM) = 5.71
Assuming a virtually 100% chance of winning in the other three non-conference games, then the expected win total for the season would be about 8.7, slightly higher than the line of 8.5, so these lines, if reasonable, suggest a very slight advantage to the over on 8.5 wins.
Posted on 6/29/15 at 3:09 pm to Nuts4LSU
The juice you have to pay makes it not worth it
Posted on 6/29/15 at 3:13 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:They have 9 starters returning on defense. Along with all of their receiving threats back.
I don't get the Ole Miss love. They're breaking in a new QB and had several other personnel losses.
Posted on 6/29/15 at 3:23 pm to JBeam
Bruce Marshall updated lines on air today. There has been movement in two LSU games since Friday.
LSU vs. Arkansas
Was LSU -1, Now LSU -5
LSU vs. Ole Miss
Was 'pick it', Now LSU +3
LSU vs. Arkansas
Was LSU -1, Now LSU -5
LSU vs. Ole Miss
Was 'pick it', Now LSU +3
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