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re: Even "Elite" Coaches Can Make Game Management Look Hard
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:22 am to omegaman66
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:22 am to omegaman66
I'm just telling you the reasons why he gets criticized for it, those listed above and the fact that he does it more than most.
0
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:22 am to josh336
quote:
For a few reasons:
Les is at a big time program in the national spotlight.
The mistakes come in nationally televised games at huge moments.
He talks and acts retarded alot of the time. Therefore its easy to reinforce the point.
Saban and Richt both blew HUGE spots in the SECCG. I guess they don't have the talking thing, though. Seriously, that was as bad as I've seen.
In re: your he was trying to gain 3 points point earlier. The EPA of punting was greater than kicking the field goal. I'm not sure, but I think the chances of converting a 4th and 8 were also greater than the NCAA average of made kicks of that distance. I'd have to further research that point. So, I think the EPA would tell you that either punting or going for it were better options then attempting a long field goal when 3 points were inconsequential at that point (inconsequential in the sense that they did not tie or allow you to take the lead, they would, obviously allow you to take the lead on a subsequent touchdown, but so would a normal touchdown and a two point conversion and most people wouldn't insist that a coach go for two in that situation).
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:24 am to therick711
Maybe Patterson thought his kicker was better than the NCAA average. Alot of college kickers probably can't get the distance on 56 yarders.
Also, point being, their is some potential advantage to gain by kicking the field goal. And the decision is understandable.
Les calling for a spike with 1 second left leaves you zero chance to win. It isn't understandable.
Also, point being, their is some potential advantage to gain by kicking the field goal. And the decision is understandable.
Les calling for a spike with 1 second left leaves you zero chance to win. It isn't understandable.
This post was edited on 9/13/13 at 10:27 am
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:27 am to josh336
quote:
Maybe Patterson thought his kicker was better than the NCAA average. Alot of college kickers probably can't get the distance on 56 yarders
Agreed. The kid is fantastic. It just wasn't a smart play statistically. It could have worked out, no doubt, but people KILLED Les for kicking a field goal at a shorter distance in an identical spot against Bama last year. I'm not sure how you felt about it, but this board was up in arms. Gary Patterson, revered by many on this board, did the same thing.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:28 am to josh336
quote:
Also, point being, their is some potential advantage to gain by kicking the field goal. And the decision is understandable.
Les calling for a spike with 1 second left leaves you zero chance to win. It isn't understandable.
Those are apples and oranges. You need to compare Gary Patterson not kicking the field goal with 45 seconds left. That killed his team's chance to win. Or look at the pathetic way he squandered his timeouts then failed to use them at the end of the LSU game. He needs to tighten his game up for sure.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:29 am to josh336
Most college kickers can get the distance. The problem is the other two parts of the equation---snap and hold. Those tend to be very inconsistent in game situations. 1 inch off on the hold, 1 split second slower on the snap.... Coaches watch these kickers pop close to 60 yarders in pregame, etc. Games are so different. It is debatable if the call by Patterson was good or not.
This post was edited on 9/13/13 at 10:30 am
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:30 am to josh336
Does Richt get blasted with clock management issues when Georgia throws a ball to the 5 yard line that effectively ended the game? That was way worse than Ole Miss.
More than 1/2 the coaches would have made the same mistake as Miles in the Ole Miss game ... they are full of shite if they say otherwise.
More than 1/2 the coaches would have made the same mistake as Miles in the Ole Miss game ... they are full of shite if they say otherwise.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:32 am to Capo
quote:
More than 1/2 the coaches would have made the same mistake as Miles in the Ole Miss game ... they are full of shite if they say otherwise.
Most of the coaches would have let 17 seconds run off the clock before attemping a 4th down down by 2?????
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:33 am to smooth99
quote:
It is debatable if the call by Patterson was good or not.
That's the problem. It isn't debatable, at least statistically. The chances of him making the field goal and getting 3 points versus the EPA effect of punting in that situation is what it is. It wasn't statistically the right call. The question is whether there is some other factor that would override that. The three points he was chasing weren't "value points." It didn't extend his lead to multiple scores, it didn't give him something he didn't already have, he still needed a touchdown to win if the kick was made, a touchdown could have won the game without that kick (provided you had the guts to go for two, but if you are chasing three points in this situation, statistically you could argue you should go for two). There was no value added by chasing those points there.
This post was edited on 9/13/13 at 10:36 am
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:33 am to therick711
It's easy to second guess when you are sitting in your living room or on a bench somewhere. When the spotlight is on you and you don't have the benefit of pause on your DVR and you've got to handle players, coaches, noise, the clock, etc it's brutal.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:34 am to Camp Randall
quote:
It's easy to second guess when you are sitting in your living room or on a bench somewhere. When the spotlight is on you and you don't have the benefit of pause on your DVR and you've got to handle players, coaches, noise, the clock, etc it's brutal.
You're exactly right. It is easy to do that. The heat of battle is tough. That's why those guys have to continually work on their late game and special situational calls. You can't be thinking about it when the seconds matter.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:36 am to therick711
quote:
That's the problem. It isn't debatable, at least statistically. The chances of him making the field goal and getting 3 points versus the EPA effect of punting in that situation is what it is. It wasn't statistically the right call. The question is whether there is some other factor that would override that. The three points he was chasing weren't "value points." It didn't extend his lead to multiple scores, it didn't give him something he didn't already have, he still needed a touchdown to win if the kick was made, a touchdown could have won the game without the kick. There was no value added by chasing those points there.
Have you watched practice? How has his kicker done in team situations from the distance? You don't know, therefore, it is debatable.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:37 am to smooth99
quote:
Have you watched practice? How has his kicker done in team situations from the distance? You don't know, therefore, it is debatable.
The way it is calculated is by using the average success rate for all kickers at that distance. The NCAA average isn't very good at 56. Hell the NFL average hovers in the low 40s. There is no one who makes that kick often enough that you could justify it in that spot. No one needs to watch practice. A kick of that distance is just extraordinarily difficult, even for Legatron.
This post was edited on 9/13/13 at 10:38 am
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:41 am to therick711
quote:
The way it is calculated is by using the average success rate for all kickers at that distance. The NCAA average isn't very good at 56. Hell the NFL average hovers in the low 40s. There is no one who makes that kick often enough that you could justify it in that spot. No one needs to watch practice. A kick of that distance is just extraordinarily difficult, even for Legatron.
I've kicked with guys that were 50-60 pct from that range. Just depends on feel and what the kicker told him on the sideline. Many times, coaches will show faith in their guys. It's not all about stats.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:44 am to smooth99
quote:
I've kicked with guys that were 50-60 pct from that range. Just depends on feel and what the kicker told him on the sideline. Many times, coaches will show faith in their guys. It's not all about stats.
If you go against the stats, you can't then say it was debatable based on the unquantifiable, no? It was a road kick for points that didn't matter in a low scoring affair. The three points, even if you got them, weren't worth the risk statistically.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:50 am to therick711
quote:
If you go against the stats, you can't then say it was debatable based on the unquantifiable, no? It was a road kick for points that didn't matter in a low scoring affair. The three points, even if you got them, weren't worth the risk statistically.
Against the stats of who? The average? I think it is highly quantifiable if your kicker is 80 pct successful from that distance when you go full team in practice. In perfect conditions, no wind, warm night......who knows what was happening on that sideline and what kind of issues they were having. He probably felt he had to at least try and get points. Obviously, their offense was struggling. We just don't know the mindset. Frustration can be a big hinderance to an team.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:52 am to smooth99
quote:
Against the stats of who? The average? I think it is highly quantifiable if your kicker is 80 pct successful from that distance when you go full team in practice. In perfect conditions, no wind, warm night......who knows what was happening on that sideline and what kind of issues they were having. He probably felt he had to at least try and get points. Obviously, their offense was struggling. We just don't know the mindset. Frustration can be a big hinderance to an team.
I appreciate having this conversation with you. You can't say its debatable by inventing things that could be true. If we don't have any facts other than what the average attempt yields at that distance, it isn't debatable.
Have a good one.Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:54 am to therick711
I will say this, though, letting the clock run 17 seconds against Ole Miss in '09 before taking a time out was a brain fart......plain and simple. The one second left "clock it" stuff....forgivable. The other part was just laziness.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 10:55 am to therick711
Just trying to look at it from all angles because I have been in very similar circumstances.
Posted on 9/13/13 at 11:20 am to josh336
quote:
Maybe Patterson thought his kicker was better than the NCAA average. Alot of college kickers probably can't get the distance on 56 yarders.
Also, point being, their is some potential advantage to gain by kicking the field goal. And the decision is understandable.
Les calling for a spike with 1 second left leaves you zero chance to win. It isn't understandable.
With Les it is a moot point because you can't get a play off with one second because you have to let the ball set for one second.
This post was edited on 9/13/13 at 11:21 am
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