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Started By
Message
re: Beck tomorrow?
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:11 am to Bayoufightingtiger
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:11 am to Bayoufightingtiger
quote:
It is a dumb move.
And if we lost to NSU and got sent home without even throwing what is conceivably our 2nd or 3rd best arm on staff right now (Sanders), YOU would be the first dumbass on here burning the place to the ground and stating it is another reason for why Mainieri should be fired.
As I stated earlier, LSU’s goal is to survive and advance, then figure it out from there. Starting Sanders in this game is the correct and only move to make.
4
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:14 am to TigerLaw40
: 
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:16 am to TigerLaw40
quote:
LSU’s goal is to survive and advance, then figure it out from there.
This is all that needs to be said btw
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:17 am to TigerLaw40
quote:
And if we lost to NSU and got sent home without even throwing what is conceivably our 2nd or 3rd best arm on staff right now (Sanders), YOU would be the first dumbass on here burning the place to the ground and stating it is another reason for why Mainieri should be fired.
Nope, but even if this were true, you think Mainieri is making his pitching decisions based on what message board posters think?
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:19 am to TigerLaw40
Yeah, you can’t leave Sanders on the shelf and get eliminated without using him.
Maybe throw our slowest pitchers against OSU. Has worked against us in the past.
Maybe throw our slowest pitchers against OSU. Has worked against us in the past.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:20 am to UpToPar
quote:
you think Mainieri is making his pitching decisions based on what message board posters think?
I think he’s basing it on what gives him the best chance of winning THIS game..cause if we don’t win THIS game...then nothing else matters
This post was edited on 6/3/18 at 10:21 am
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:21 am to UpToPar
quote:
No, the goal is still to win the regional.
Does surviving and advancing not get you to the goal of winning the regional if you are successful at it?
quote:
You’re best chance to win the regional is to go
Beck vs NWST
Sanders vs OSU
So you conceivably go home, having been eliminated by NSU, never having thrown what is probably your 2nd or 3rd best arm on staff right now? Yeah, that would go over well on this board.
quote:
Bain vs OSU
With number of arms available right now, do you not think Bain will have to pitch in either of the 2 games today (if you have that many)?
quote:
UpToPar
I use to think you were one of the posters on here with some baseball knowledge and sense. Guess I must have been thinking of someone else.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:22 am to TigerLaw40
quote:
So you conceivably go home, having been eliminated by NSU, never having thrown what is probably your 2nd or 3rd best arm on staff right now? Yeah, that would go over well on this board.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:24 am to Double Oh
Makes absolutely no sense......must save Sanders, Bain, Beck to beat OSU twice......we should score mucho against Northwestern 3rd pitcher......the screw up was throwing Gilbert and Vetmeier last night down by 7.....they are the ones who should be going against Northwestern today....
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:25 am to saintsfansmucho
Gilbert wouldn’t beat Northwestern
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:25 am to Genestealer55
quote:
This is all that needs to be said btw
One would think so; but of course the Rant never fails to produce its share of dumbasses.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:27 am to saintsfansmucho
quote:
Makes absolutely no sense.
Yes, it absolutely does.
You fools are trying to save fuel in the middle of a dogfight.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:28 am to Genestealer55
quote:
I think he’s basing it on what gives him the best chance of winning THIS game..cause if we don’t win THIS game...then nothing else matters
Very well said! You would think people with even one brain cell could figure this out. But no, we are LSU, the place where we can strategize all the way to the CWS because we can assume wins all the way till there just because we are LSU.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:28 am to Genestealer55
quote:
think he’s basing it on what gives him the best chance of winning THIS game..cause if we don’t win THIS game...then nothing else matters
And winning THIS game doesn’t mean shite if you don’t beat OSU twice.
Let’s run through a hypothetical. Let’s assume that LSUs chances to win are as follows:
With Beck on the mound:
vs NWST- 65%
vs OSU- 30%
With Sanders on the mound:
vs NWST- 85%
vs OSU- 40%
You have to win both of those games. Using the above made up probabilities, LSUs chance of winning both those games with Sanders throwing against NWST is 25% and their chance of winning both with Beck throwing against NWST is 27%.
Assign whatever percentages you think appropriate, the point is, you should pitch whoever gives you the best shot at winning BOTH of those games.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:29 am to UpToPar
Exactly
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:34 am to UpToPar
quote:
And winning THIS game doesn’t mean shite if you don’t beat OSU twice.
And what do you not get about the fact that if LSU does not WIN THIS GAME, then they DO NOT get a chance to play OSU again, PERIOD?!
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:35 am to TigerLaw40
quote:
Does surviving and advancing not get you to the goal of winning the regional if you are successful at it?
Sure, but you’re really diminishing your chances if you burn Sanders against NWST.
quote:
So you conceivably go home, having been eliminated by NSU, never having thrown what is probably your 2nd or 3rd best arm on staff right now? Yeah, that would go over well on this board.
If Beck can’t beat NWST you have faith he would beat OSU. Does it really matter if we fly back tonight or tomorrow morning?
quote:
With number of arms available right now, do you not think Bain will have to pitch in either of the 2 games today (if you have that many)?
Maybe. If you can jump out to a big lead in the first game then you piece it together after Beck with anybody not named Sanders, Bain, And Peterson.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:38 am to TigerLaw40
quote:
And what do you not get about the fact that if LSU does not WIN THIS GAME, then they DO NOT get a chance to play OSU again, PERIOD?!
Re-read my post again. You’re clearly having a difficult time understanding the math. We can disagree on the percentages, but the logic is there. If Beck vs NWST and Sanders vs OSU gives you a 27% chance of winning both those games and Sanders vs NWST and Beck vs OSU gives you a 25% chance then you go with the former.
This really isn’t that difficult. It’s the same logic that every 2 and 3 seed in a regional uses in an attempt to win the first 2 games and be in the driver seat.
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:41 am to Bayoufightingtiger
quote:
is a dumb move. Beck has already proven he can beat NSU. Then you save Sanders against OSU. LSU should not have to waste their best pitcher available to beat a team from the Southland conference that barely got in the tournament.
Bingo we have a winner...
Posted on 6/3/18 at 10:44 am to tigerskin
quote:
Gilbert wouldn’t beat Northwestern
Gilbert couldnt beat Parkview Baptist
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