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re: Analyzing Miles and LSU

Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:53 pm to
Posted by lsusteve1
Member since Dec 2004
41901 posts
Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:53 pm to
Summary.....everything good not because of Miles

Everything bad....because of Miles



Posted by faxis
La.
Member since Oct 2007
7773 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 12:29 am to
quote:

But LSU will always be 11-2 or 10-3 or 9-4 team with a rare SEC title


He's done it 2 times in seven years. That's not "Rare". That's badass. And last years record was what again? Oh, always must mean something completely different to you than to everyone else in the english speaking world.

Jesus isn't coming to coach LSU. Bear Bryant is dead and wouldn't be as good as Saban right now. Or Les for that matter because he couldn't recruit without cheating. People who think LSU should be a paragon of perfection or the coach has failed have not watched much college football.
Posted by PeaRidgeWatash
Down by the docks of the city
Member since Dec 2004
15210 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 6:37 am to
quote:

OLine play has been horrible post 2007 when the last of Saban's guys left



Huh? Clueless.
Posted by kew48
Covington Louisiana
Member since Sep 2006
1105 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 7:06 am to
Pretty Good Assesment!! I agree. Over time it will become much harder attracting top level offensive skill position players OB's and Recivers primarily.!!
Posted by GEAUXLSUFAN401
Member since Aug 2010
1584 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 7:10 am to
Here's the problem if we lose Miles...we lose our D-Coordinator. No fan wants that.
Posted by Stmtiger90
SUGARLAND, TX
Member since Aug 2012
168 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 7:16 am to
If they truely want to get better, they need to take non contact jersey off of Mett in practice and run ones vs ones live at least 2 days a week! Mett claims there is plenty of time to throw in practice, that is because it is scout team vs 1st team, and no contact on QB. This is why it looks so different from practice to game!
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89516 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 8:03 am to
quote:

(1) Since 2007 the only time the offense has rarely clicked, is in the early half of 2011 when Lee posed the genuine passing threat, defensive teams did not pack the box that much or got burnt doing so.


Mike - I respect the work that went into your analysis. The problem with generalities such as this is they are often wrong (and sometimes very wrong).

Let's take 2008 - the offense was EXTREMELY balanced. We rushed 495 times, versus 391 pass attempts, but we averaged over 200 yards per game passing, versus only 167 yards rushing. We roughly split TOP with our opponents and had a slightly under 40% success rate on both 3rd and 4th down. We scored 50 touchdowns - 48 offensively including 27 rushing and 21 passing. We only lost 2 fumbles (out of only 16) all season. We were 91% in redzone scoring, including 74% redzone touchdowns. We earned 254 first downs, 122 by rushing, 114 passing and 18 by penalty. We averaged 4.4 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass.

The ONLY glaring negative offensive statistic is interceptions - 18 - we had 2 freshmen quarterbacks. The fact that many of those were returned for touchdowns is the exception that proves the rule the offense was, arguably, clicking in 2008. In 5 losses, we scored 21, 38, 21, 13 and 30 - the margins of loss were 30, 14, 6(OT), 18 and 1.

We also defeated a ranked bowl opponent (Ga. Tech) 38-3.

The offensive numbers dipped in 2009, but much of that came out of running production - the TOP averaged dipped to just under 28 minutes and we had significantly fewer plays (I think that was the first year of the new clock rules). The average per pass went up to 7.0 yards, while the rushing average dipped to 3.7 yards per carry. Scoring also dipped, particularly in the losses, to 3, 15, 23 and 17 points (for an average of about 14 1/2 points in the losses).

The passing game devolved as the combination of Jefferson and Lee didn't progress (at least not appreciably. It was not a reliable component of the team.) HOWEVER, there were several instances the offense "clicked", even in relatively poor offensive (especially scoring-wise) 2010. The early game against UNC in 2010 had us gaining 5.5 yards per offensive play (although the defense allowed that as well), also in 2010, @Gainesville we were 100% in the redzone, 50% on 3rd down, and 2-2 on 4th down.

My argument has always been, the playcalling is dictated by the play of the QB. The better the QB plays, the more open the playcalling gets. I may have to expand that to include pass protection by the OL and WR play. If you want to blame our current woes on some of Miles' quirks/offensive philosophy/failure to do his job vis-a-vis QBs/WRs/OL, fine - that is all fair.

To say the offense has not "clicked" since 2007 is patently unfair and provably false - the offense was clicking on all cylinders last year until the Bama game. I agree Miles has seemed unusually conservative since that time. That was not the case @ Gainesville, however. Clearly the offensive game plan was to throw more and it looked like it would work, at first. Then, the whole thing bogged down (as the offense has consistently done since the Bama game in Tuscaloosa last year, with dramatic reversals in the second half against Arkansas and UGA).

I don't have an explanation but a generality that "the offense hasn't clicked since 2007" isn't going to work because it isn't accurate.

This post was edited on 10/10/12 at 8:10 am
Posted by JonTheTigerFan
Central, LA
Member since Nov 2003
6784 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 8:13 am to
quote:

Summary.....everything good not because of Miles Everything bad....because of Miles


In a nutshell. Kinda like all the people who claim Miles only wins because of all the talent on the team. They give him no credit for assembling all that talent on the field.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89516 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 8:26 am to
quote:

He's done it 2 times in seven years. That's not "Rare". That's badass. And last years record was what again? Oh, always must mean something completely different to you than to everyone else in the english speaking world.


Out of 7 complete seasons, Miles has won 13, 12, 11, 11, 11, 9 and 8 - (he has never won 10 without also winning an 11th the same season). Even if LSU does not win another game in 2012, Miles will complete 8 seasons with an average of 10 wins.

Also, out of 7 completed seasons, LSU has won the division and competed for the SEC title 3 times, going 2-1 in those games, just as we have gotten into the big game twice during Miles' tenure, going 1-1.

Let's fire him - what do you tell the next guy? "The first year you don't make the SEC game, you're fired. You go 3 years without winning the BCS (don't give us this - 'we got into the game undefeated' crap)? You're fired. Go a season without winning 12 games? You're fired."

Yeah, I can see quality candidates lining up...

Posted by coldhotwings
Mississippi
Member since Jan 2008
6497 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 8:42 am to
quote:

While Les is a good recruiter, we would still get the majority of the in state players every year without him. Our program and facilities are top 10 in the country. And, we have Frank Wilson who is a top 3 recruiter in the game. Les has done a great job getting the talent, but with or without Les we will usually get the top players because of our program.


So who assembled the team of amazing recruiters? If LSU recruits itself explain how we lost Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Warrick Dunn, Marshall Faulk, Ed Reed, Reggie Wayne, and so many more...
Posted by N.O. via West-Cal
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2004
7178 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 9:51 am to
"4) OLine play has been horrible post 2007 when the last of Saban's guys left."

I agree with much of the points the OP made, but this is not true. We had good OL play in 2008, blasting open holes for Charles Scott even though the D knew what was coming. Also, the OL play last year was not just good, it was outstanding.

Posted by Leaux
Diamondhead, MS
Member since Feb 2009
482 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 10:09 am to
He has been successful when he has had competent coordinators.
Chavis and his defense have been exceptional year after year... True reason for his success.
He is a good used car salesmen and get recruits. He will not be successful recruiting Offensive talent if this continues. We have seen that already with WR and QB because his passing game is junior high level.

Offense is the same year after year ... NC defensive game plan from Saban gave everyone the approach to attack the Tiger offense.
Miles has one approach and the SEC has figured it out.
I do not think the players feel the same way about him since the NC game.
The Honey Badger issues speak to a bigger problem.
Just one other thought ...
I have a great deal on a Harley and chick to go with it for Les Miles only.

Geaux Tigers!
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89516 posts
Posted on 10/10/12 at 10:15 am to
quote:

I agree with much of the points the OP made, but this is not true. We had good OL play in 2008, blasting open holes for Charles Scott even though the D knew what was coming. Also, the OL play last year was not just good, it was outstanding.


There was a noticable dip in running production in 2009 (first year without Big Herm), but otherwise, the run blocking has been excellent until very recently. Last year's run blocking was probably as good as I've seen a LSU team, or really any college team, over a 40+ year of being a football fan.

There have been a number of terrible NFL offensive lines over the years that could not have run-blocked as well as LSU's 2011 offensive line.
This post was edited on 10/10/12 at 10:16 am
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