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Started By
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Another QB thread. Last 10 years of 4 and 5 stars
Posted on 11/26/19 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 11/26/19 at 10:08 pm
I have too much time on my hands and another comment in a thread about not having a top 5 QB on board when almost all other positions will have top 5 rated talent sparked this thread. Also the 2021 class currently has five 5 stars(6 if you go by the top 32 247 uses) and thought that was high(Caleb Williams a 5 star and only the 4th best QB in the class).
I went back to 2009 and counted which 4 and 5 stars got drafted. I know this isn't a perfect metric on if a QB has a good college career but its the best I could come up with that was somewhat easy to gather data. Guys like Kyle Allen(5 star) and Jake Browning(4 star) were decent college QB's and are in the NFL but don't show up these stats. Another is J.T. Barrett who was a 4 star and good college QB. I stopped tallying at 2016 because too many are still playing.
Some notes: 2009 had Russell Shepard who was drafted as a WR. 2016 has Eason, Patterson as 5 stars and Haskins, Hurts, Bentley as 4 stars.
What does it show? My takeaway is get the fricking 5 star if you can because percentages don't lie, but like most other positions 3/4 stars can be developed/grow into excellent players. Nothing earthshattering and I feel like I wasted the last hour of my life.
I went back to 2009 and counted which 4 and 5 stars got drafted. I know this isn't a perfect metric on if a QB has a good college career but its the best I could come up with that was somewhat easy to gather data. Guys like Kyle Allen(5 star) and Jake Browning(4 star) were decent college QB's and are in the NFL but don't show up these stats. Another is J.T. Barrett who was a 4 star and good college QB. I stopped tallying at 2016 because too many are still playing.
Some notes: 2009 had Russell Shepard who was drafted as a WR. 2016 has Eason, Patterson as 5 stars and Haskins, Hurts, Bentley as 4 stars.
What does it show? My takeaway is get the fricking 5 star if you can because percentages don't lie, but like most other positions 3/4 stars can be developed/grow into excellent players. Nothing earthshattering and I feel like I wasted the last hour of my life.
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 10:11 pm
6
Posted on 11/26/19 at 10:43 pm to dome53
Thanks for the data. And I agree. 
Posted on 11/26/19 at 11:46 pm to dome53
You did waste the last hour. Without doing all that work I can tell you percentage wise 5’d are better than 4’s are better than 3’s.
Posted on 11/27/19 at 6:09 am to dome53
If you have more time to waste, I would like to see how low the three star percentage is.
Posted on 11/27/19 at 6:23 am to tiger109
quote:
If you have more time to waste, I would like to see how low the three star percentage is.
There are over 100 3 star QB's a year so I can assure you the % is low
Posted on 11/27/19 at 7:23 am to dome53
Someone did an analysis regarding correlation of high school completion % and college completion %. Regardless of star ranking, completion % from high school to college typically stayed the same (there were definite outliers but this was the overall pattern). It would be cool to see star ranking and completion % (both have and college) next to these QBs for reference.
Posted on 11/27/19 at 10:34 am to dome53
OK, now look at the top rated DT QB for each class. The success rate is off the charts! Below are the number 1 ranked DT and number 1 ranked Pro QBs from 2012 - 2018.
2012 Gunner Kiel (Undrafted) - Jamie’s Winston (NC, AA, Heisman trophy, 1st pick NFL draft, NFL ROY)
2013 Max Browne (Undrafted) - Asiantii Woulard (Undrafted)
2014 Kyle Allen (Undrafted, signed free agent NFL) - Deshaun Watson (NC, 2 ACC titles, AA, Heisman finalist, 1st Rd NFL)
2015 Josh Rosen (1st rd NFL) - Kyler Murray (Big 12 title, AA, CFP, Heisman trophy, 1st pick NFL draft)
2016 Shea Patterson (Not much) - Jarrett (Not much)
2017 Davis Mills - Tua Tagovailoa (SEC title, SEC offensive POY, NC, Heisman finalist, projected 1st rd NFL before injury)
2018 Trevor Lawrence (ACC title, NC, projected 1st rd NFL) - Justin Fields (led team to undefeated season and 1st in CFP currently)
The success rate of the top rated DT QBs is undeniable and amazing! LSU is in the running for the 2021 top rated DT QB and 16th ranked player nationally. Some LSU “fans” question his recruitment over a 11th ranked Pro QB whose the 167th ranked player. Riddle me that! Based on what metrics? Based on the overwhelming success of the previous number 1 ranked DT QBs, LSU must go all out to take advantage of Williams’ interest.
2012 Gunner Kiel (Undrafted) - Jamie’s Winston (NC, AA, Heisman trophy, 1st pick NFL draft, NFL ROY)
2013 Max Browne (Undrafted) - Asiantii Woulard (Undrafted)
2014 Kyle Allen (Undrafted, signed free agent NFL) - Deshaun Watson (NC, 2 ACC titles, AA, Heisman finalist, 1st Rd NFL)
2015 Josh Rosen (1st rd NFL) - Kyler Murray (Big 12 title, AA, CFP, Heisman trophy, 1st pick NFL draft)
2016 Shea Patterson (Not much) - Jarrett (Not much)
2017 Davis Mills - Tua Tagovailoa (SEC title, SEC offensive POY, NC, Heisman finalist, projected 1st rd NFL before injury)
2018 Trevor Lawrence (ACC title, NC, projected 1st rd NFL) - Justin Fields (led team to undefeated season and 1st in CFP currently)
The success rate of the top rated DT QBs is undeniable and amazing! LSU is in the running for the 2021 top rated DT QB and 16th ranked player nationally. Some LSU “fans” question his recruitment over a 11th ranked Pro QB whose the 167th ranked player. Riddle me that! Based on what metrics? Based on the overwhelming success of the previous number 1 ranked DT QBs, LSU must go all out to take advantage of Williams’ interest.
Posted on 11/27/19 at 10:50 am to dome53
Ouch, 2010 was a bad year.
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