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Message

Flood of 2011 - Frequently Asked Questions and Answers (Update 5-16)
Posted on 5/10/11 at 2:59 pm
Posted on 5/10/11 at 2:59 pm
Since there are so many new people coming here for a resource, I thought we should post some FAQ's to avoid mass threads on the same topics. I will update as much as possible.
1) Q - Are BR and NO still in danger?
A - To some degree, yes. The Mississippi River will still be at historically high levels for weeks. But the opening of Morganza and Bonnet Carre have reduced (if not ended) the risk of overtopping. The system is still in some danger of a breech. They will be looking for sand boils (spots where the pressure from the water force dirt on the dry side of the levee to start bubbling) and other weak spots constantly. Be cautious but don't let your guard down. We aren't completely out of the woods yet.
2) Q - Will _______(insert road) be closed when I travel?
For Louisiana, visit the LADOTD website for phone numbers and web alerts, and webcams LINK In Mississippi, you can visit LINK
3) Q - Why is BR and NO shown as cresting now instead of the end of the month?
A - The opening of the spillways will keep the water height and flow rate at close to the levels they are now. So this is sort of a manmande crest while the crest of water will come down around the 23rd/24th with everything in excess of 1.5 million CFS being sent through ORCS and Morganza.
4) Q - What is Morganza, ORCS, and Bonnet Carre?
A - You will be hearing these terms plenty so here is a great map online discuss the location and use of these structures: MAP LINK
Essentially, ORCS and Morganza will reduce River flow and height to Baton Rouge while Bonnet Carre does the same for New Orleans.
Here's another good link from The Dude LINK
5) Q - How soon will water from the Morganza opening get where I live?
A - Morganza opened on Saturday, May 14 at 3:00 PM. They are opening more bays each day. Here is the map projectioning how long the water will take to reach certain areas (although on 5/16 it was announced the water was moving slightly slower than expected): LINK
6) Q - What is flow rate?
A - The average flow rate on the River during a year is 450,000 CFS. This means that 450,000 cubic feet of water passes at a particular point at that given second. This rate can have serious effects on navigation (making it harder to steer and control River traffic) and probably causes erosion along the levees at high speeds. As stated above, the Corps has specific ceilings for flow rates past certain points. The ceiling in BR is 1.5 Million CFS (shown in many reports as 1500KCFS) and NO is 1.25 Million CFS. The last prediction for River flow in Vicksburg, MS at the crest was 2.72 Million CFS. According to the America's Wetlands site, the highest recorded flow on the River was 2,345,000 CFS in 1927. This means about 1.22 Million CFS will be diverted through ORCS and Morganza.
To put this in perspective, if the Corps diverts 1,220,000 CFS into the Atchafalaya Basin, they are essentially sending the average of the Mississippi River two and a half times that way....while 3 times that amount is going past Baton Rouge. Flow rate is also the reason you will see restrictions on River traffic (like current restrictions on night navigation between BR and NO). You don't want a tanker, tug with barges, or any large vessel loosing control and hitting the top of a levee.
A long read but good explanation and history is on this America's Wetland Resources page: LINK
7) Q - Why is this happening?
A - See the link above from America's Wetlands. 41% of the continental US drains through the Miss River. Just an abnormal amount of snow melt and rainfall in areas North of Louisiana.
There are a few more FAQ's a few posts below as we ran out of space here. Thanks. Good luck and God Bless! It's going to be a tense few weeks.
1) Q - Are BR and NO still in danger?
A - To some degree, yes. The Mississippi River will still be at historically high levels for weeks. But the opening of Morganza and Bonnet Carre have reduced (if not ended) the risk of overtopping. The system is still in some danger of a breech. They will be looking for sand boils (spots where the pressure from the water force dirt on the dry side of the levee to start bubbling) and other weak spots constantly. Be cautious but don't let your guard down. We aren't completely out of the woods yet.
2) Q - Will _______(insert road) be closed when I travel?
For Louisiana, visit the LADOTD website for phone numbers and web alerts, and webcams LINK In Mississippi, you can visit LINK
3) Q - Why is BR and NO shown as cresting now instead of the end of the month?
A - The opening of the spillways will keep the water height and flow rate at close to the levels they are now. So this is sort of a manmande crest while the crest of water will come down around the 23rd/24th with everything in excess of 1.5 million CFS being sent through ORCS and Morganza.
4) Q - What is Morganza, ORCS, and Bonnet Carre?
A - You will be hearing these terms plenty so here is a great map online discuss the location and use of these structures: MAP LINK
Essentially, ORCS and Morganza will reduce River flow and height to Baton Rouge while Bonnet Carre does the same for New Orleans.
Here's another good link from The Dude LINK
5) Q - How soon will water from the Morganza opening get where I live?
A - Morganza opened on Saturday, May 14 at 3:00 PM. They are opening more bays each day. Here is the map projectioning how long the water will take to reach certain areas (although on 5/16 it was announced the water was moving slightly slower than expected): LINK
6) Q - What is flow rate?
A - The average flow rate on the River during a year is 450,000 CFS. This means that 450,000 cubic feet of water passes at a particular point at that given second. This rate can have serious effects on navigation (making it harder to steer and control River traffic) and probably causes erosion along the levees at high speeds. As stated above, the Corps has specific ceilings for flow rates past certain points. The ceiling in BR is 1.5 Million CFS (shown in many reports as 1500KCFS) and NO is 1.25 Million CFS. The last prediction for River flow in Vicksburg, MS at the crest was 2.72 Million CFS. According to the America's Wetlands site, the highest recorded flow on the River was 2,345,000 CFS in 1927. This means about 1.22 Million CFS will be diverted through ORCS and Morganza.
To put this in perspective, if the Corps diverts 1,220,000 CFS into the Atchafalaya Basin, they are essentially sending the average of the Mississippi River two and a half times that way....while 3 times that amount is going past Baton Rouge. Flow rate is also the reason you will see restrictions on River traffic (like current restrictions on night navigation between BR and NO). You don't want a tanker, tug with barges, or any large vessel loosing control and hitting the top of a levee.
A long read but good explanation and history is on this America's Wetland Resources page: LINK
7) Q - Why is this happening?
A - See the link above from America's Wetlands. 41% of the continental US drains through the Miss River. Just an abnormal amount of snow melt and rainfall in areas North of Louisiana.
There are a few more FAQ's a few posts below as we ran out of space here. Thanks. Good luck and God Bless! It's going to be a tense few weeks.
This post was edited on 5/16/11 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:05 pm to Walt OReilly
Hit the 7900 character limit on the OP, so here will be the new stuff.
8) Q - How long will this last?
A - From all reports, the River will crest in Baton Rouge around May 23-24. That does not mean it is over then. They are reporting that the "cresting" will last for about a week. All during this time, or even when the River is above flood stage (as it is now), you should be staying in tune with events. Parish officials and the Corps have stated in recent days that the elevated water levels (especially in Southern LA around the Atchafalaya basin) could last until July. There is plenty of water to funnel down after the initial crest. I read recently that they even were holding rain water in the basins and reservoirs in West Virginia, not allowing one drop to enter the tributaries. When the danger levels decrease, I assume they will let this water into the system, too. this doesn't even account for the coming rainfall.
9) Q - Is _______________ (insert your town here) going to flood?
A - If you live along the Mississippi River on either side, you should be very cautious. This is an event without precedent. Take it seriously. Stay in tune with your local news sources and Parish websites, and of course....Tiger Droppings. If I was you, I might go buy one of those emergency radios and have it in your bedroom. If a levee fails during the night, you could see Katrina like stories. This may not be probable, but this is the greatest possibility of this happening in 3 generations.
10) Q - What is the worse case scenario? A - I guess that all depends on where you live. If you get 1' of water in your home, that can be pretty bad. But at least they are giving people plenty of warning right now. So they have a chance to prepare. In my opinion, the worst case scenario would be a levee breech in the middle of the night near a densely populated area (BR or NO). That would cause a great loss of property and life....not to mention possible economic issues if refineries flood, etc. If you have a breech near Waterford 3 Nuclear Plant along the River near Edgard, well....you remember Japan. That would pretty much stink, too. Also, people say if the ORCS or Morganza collapses or fails, the River could permanently divert through Morgan City. I can't even imagine the implications for our national economy if this happens. You are talking about shutting down River commerce and infrastructure for years while safe routes and ports need to be built. Here's a good link with video of discussion of that unlikely possibility LINK
Those would be the most catastrophic things in my opinion. None probable, just the greatest possibility in our lifetime. And I am sure there are plenty of smart people working to make sure these don't happen. So don't flip out.
From Judge Holden:The Corps tests the Morganza structure on an ongoing basis, including operating the gates. It will open. The question is whether it will withstand the pressure. If it does not, then the Mississippi will likely divert to the Atchafalaya. Baton Rouge will not flood, but it will also not have a major river any more for commerce. This is unlikely to happen. Among other things, they will be operating Morganza at far lower levels than its capacity.
11) Why would anyone be so stupid to live in the Spillway?
A - They take a certain risk choosing to live where they do. But if you live in Baton Rouge or New Orleans, just remember, people in Washington, New York, etc. are saying the same thing about you. Have some compassion people.
8) Q - How long will this last?
A - From all reports, the River will crest in Baton Rouge around May 23-24. That does not mean it is over then. They are reporting that the "cresting" will last for about a week. All during this time, or even when the River is above flood stage (as it is now), you should be staying in tune with events. Parish officials and the Corps have stated in recent days that the elevated water levels (especially in Southern LA around the Atchafalaya basin) could last until July. There is plenty of water to funnel down after the initial crest. I read recently that they even were holding rain water in the basins and reservoirs in West Virginia, not allowing one drop to enter the tributaries. When the danger levels decrease, I assume they will let this water into the system, too. this doesn't even account for the coming rainfall.
9) Q - Is _______________ (insert your town here) going to flood?
A - If you live along the Mississippi River on either side, you should be very cautious. This is an event without precedent. Take it seriously. Stay in tune with your local news sources and Parish websites, and of course....Tiger Droppings. If I was you, I might go buy one of those emergency radios and have it in your bedroom. If a levee fails during the night, you could see Katrina like stories. This may not be probable, but this is the greatest possibility of this happening in 3 generations.
10) Q - What is the worse case scenario? A - I guess that all depends on where you live. If you get 1' of water in your home, that can be pretty bad. But at least they are giving people plenty of warning right now. So they have a chance to prepare. In my opinion, the worst case scenario would be a levee breech in the middle of the night near a densely populated area (BR or NO). That would cause a great loss of property and life....not to mention possible economic issues if refineries flood, etc. If you have a breech near Waterford 3 Nuclear Plant along the River near Edgard, well....you remember Japan. That would pretty much stink, too. Also, people say if the ORCS or Morganza collapses or fails, the River could permanently divert through Morgan City. I can't even imagine the implications for our national economy if this happens. You are talking about shutting down River commerce and infrastructure for years while safe routes and ports need to be built. Here's a good link with video of discussion of that unlikely possibility LINK
Those would be the most catastrophic things in my opinion. None probable, just the greatest possibility in our lifetime. And I am sure there are plenty of smart people working to make sure these don't happen. So don't flip out.
From Judge Holden:The Corps tests the Morganza structure on an ongoing basis, including operating the gates. It will open. The question is whether it will withstand the pressure. If it does not, then the Mississippi will likely divert to the Atchafalaya. Baton Rouge will not flood, but it will also not have a major river any more for commerce. This is unlikely to happen. Among other things, they will be operating Morganza at far lower levels than its capacity.
11) Why would anyone be so stupid to live in the Spillway?
A - They take a certain risk choosing to live where they do. But if you live in Baton Rouge or New Orleans, just remember, people in Washington, New York, etc. are saying the same thing about you. Have some compassion people.
This post was edited on 5/13/11 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:07 pm to Bowe Knows


this is a solid thread FWIW
not being sarcastic
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:08 pm to Bowe Knows
I know Scottie said that Bayou Lafourche wouldn't help hardly at all, but will they open it up to full capacity? I haven't heard anything about it at all. I live along the bayou and wish they would open it up full steam.
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:38 pm to Bowe Knows
quote:
Only 1.5 Million cubic feet per second (CFS) is allowed through Baton Rouge. So if 2 Million CFS is projected, they will funnel at least 500KCPS into the Atchafalaya Basin through Morganza and probably ORCS.
Atchafalaya River at Simmesport, LA 05/10 14:45 CDT 39.14 -- -- --
05/09 18:45 CDT -- -- -- 547,000
Lower Atchafalaya River at Morgan City, LA 05/10 13:30 CDT 6.70 -- -- 298,000
USGS Real-Time Streamflow Data
Posted on 5/10/11 at 5:20 pm to knorth
That's the current levels there. In BR that same chart has it at 4:15 this afternoon at 1,281,000 CFS. That is why they plan on opening Morganza on Saturday, because the River in BR will be close to the max flow rate.
The speed of the River also causes concern for navigation, making it very hard to steer those vessels, barges, and tugs. It should be interesting watching the boats make the turn in New Orleans around Algiers. On WWL last night, the Captain of the Natchez said they ran downriver at 18 and could only get back at 6.
The speed of the River also causes concern for navigation, making it very hard to steer those vessels, barges, and tugs. It should be interesting watching the boats make the turn in New Orleans around Algiers. On WWL last night, the Captain of the Natchez said they ran downriver at 18 and could only get back at 6.
Posted on 5/10/11 at 6:32 pm to Bowe Knows
Thanks for this. This made it much easier to understand 

Posted on 5/10/11 at 7:35 pm to 318bornTiger
Great info for us all !!! Thanks
Posted on 5/10/11 at 9:04 pm to Bowe Knows
Thank you for this post. Very helpful
Posted on 5/10/11 at 9:31 pm to Bowe Knows
Thanks! Hope this is informative.
This post was edited on 5/11/11 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 5/10/11 at 11:36 pm to Bowe Knows
thank you SO MUCH for this. seriously
Posted on 5/11/11 at 8:54 am to Bowe Knows
Since the Morganza spillway hasn't been open since the 70's is there any chance that they have trouble opening it? If they do what is the next step?
Posted on 5/11/11 at 9:02 am to gringeaux
10) The Corps tests the Morganza structure on an ongoing basis, including operating the gates. It will open. The question is whether it will withstand the pressure. If it does not, then the Mississippi will likely divert to the Atchafalaya. Baton Rouge will not flood, but it will also not have a major river any more for commerce. This is unlikely to happen. Among other things, they will be operating Morganza at far lower levels than its capacity.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 9:02 am to Bowe Knows
quote:
ETA - If the regulars like Scottie P and LSUDad and Judge Holden, etc. want to post a few more they keep answering, I will add them to the top. Just post below.
Well done.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 9:54 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
The Corps tests the Morganza structure on an ongoing basis, including operating the gates. It will open. The question is whether it will withstand the pressure. If it does not, then the Mississippi will likely divert to the Atchafalaya. Baton Rouge will not flood, but it will also not have a major river any more for commerce. This is unlikely to happen. Among other things, they will be operating Morganza at far lower levels than its capacity.
this is a good thing to know thanks

Posted on 5/11/11 at 1:11 pm to JudgeHolden
You guys have been on top of this and providing good answers (sometimes over and over again) for a week. Just thought this may help out!
Anything you guys think needs to be at the top, I'll be glad to rearrange.

Anything you guys think needs to be at the top, I'll be glad to rearrange.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 1:38 pm to Bowe Knows
Bowe, Right now they are projecting the kcfs in Natchez on May 16th to reach around the 2300 or more kcfs Link
Let's say it is 2200 and the Corp diverts 450,000 to Morganza. That should leave BR with 1750 kcfs right and that would put everyone at risk right?
Let's say it is 2200 and the Corp diverts 450,000 to Morganza. That should leave BR with 1750 kcfs right and that would put everyone at risk right?
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