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Message
Trading the first pick in a keeper league...
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:34 pm
So I have the first pick in my keeper league. The guy is making a decent offer, but I am not sure I want to give up the top pick. AP in a "contract" year could be 
Here is the text that the guy sent to me regarding trading the top pick for the 11th in a 12 team keeper league.
So I've got the following:
Kemp (O Rank: 22), slotted in the 4th round (48th pick for you) so good value
Cruz (O-Rank: 28) slotted in the 6th round (72nd pick for you), also good value
Liriano (O-Rank: 78) slotted in the 12th round (144th pick for you) also good value
Scherzer (O-Rank: 101) slotted in the 12th round (144th pick for you) also good value
From what I can tell you've got already on your team:
Colby Rasmus (O-Rank 99) slotted in the 8th round (96th pick for you) okay value after keepers slotted (but not as good as Kemp or Cruz)
Sandoval (kept him last year) (O-Rank 107) slotted in the 8th round (96nd pick for you if you don't also keep Morales): little or no value
Kendry Morales (kept him last year) (O-Rank 53) slotted in the 8th round (96th pick for you if you don't also keep Sandoval): good value but is he healthy????
Lincecum (kept him last year) (O-Rank 26) slotted in the 7th round (73rd pick for you): GREAT VALUE
Beltre (O-Rank 43) slotted in the 8th round (96th pick for you): GREAT VALUE (but will he produce in a non-contract year)
You should probably keep Lincecum, Beltre, and Morales. Either Beltre or Morales will move to the 7th round which would be the 73rd pick for you. Not bad.
But I'd be willing to give you either Kemp or Cruz at the slots above. I'd want to switch first rounders (1st overall for 11th overall). Yes that would be Pujols to me. But in crunching the draft board it's very likely that either Fielder or Howard will be available at 11th overall.
So it's really Pujols for Kemp/Cruz and Fielder/Howard. And you'd have Kemp or Cruz slotted fairly low for as long as you want to keep them. Pujols will not be keepable ever. That's where the real value is (and most people miss it). Last year I was shopping Tulo and Cano at great slots. No one took it and both exploded last year.
Here is the text that the guy sent to me regarding trading the top pick for the 11th in a 12 team keeper league.
So I've got the following:
Kemp (O Rank: 22), slotted in the 4th round (48th pick for you) so good value
Cruz (O-Rank: 28) slotted in the 6th round (72nd pick for you), also good value
Liriano (O-Rank: 78) slotted in the 12th round (144th pick for you) also good value
Scherzer (O-Rank: 101) slotted in the 12th round (144th pick for you) also good value
From what I can tell you've got already on your team:
Colby Rasmus (O-Rank 99) slotted in the 8th round (96th pick for you) okay value after keepers slotted (but not as good as Kemp or Cruz)
Sandoval (kept him last year) (O-Rank 107) slotted in the 8th round (96nd pick for you if you don't also keep Morales): little or no value
Kendry Morales (kept him last year) (O-Rank 53) slotted in the 8th round (96th pick for you if you don't also keep Sandoval): good value but is he healthy????
Lincecum (kept him last year) (O-Rank 26) slotted in the 7th round (73rd pick for you): GREAT VALUE
Beltre (O-Rank 43) slotted in the 8th round (96th pick for you): GREAT VALUE (but will he produce in a non-contract year)
You should probably keep Lincecum, Beltre, and Morales. Either Beltre or Morales will move to the 7th round which would be the 73rd pick for you. Not bad.
But I'd be willing to give you either Kemp or Cruz at the slots above. I'd want to switch first rounders (1st overall for 11th overall). Yes that would be Pujols to me. But in crunching the draft board it's very likely that either Fielder or Howard will be available at 11th overall.
So it's really Pujols for Kemp/Cruz and Fielder/Howard. And you'd have Kemp or Cruz slotted fairly low for as long as you want to keep them. Pujols will not be keepable ever. That's where the real value is (and most people miss it). Last year I was shopping Tulo and Cano at great slots. No one took it and both exploded last year.
4
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:37 pm to DEANintheYAY
You obviously need to explain the keeper rules for this league.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:39 pm to DEANintheYAY
Wow... that's a very good offer in my opinion. I'd take Kemp and the 11th pick.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:39 pm to barry
quote:
You obviously need to explain the keeper rules for this league.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:40 pm to barry
why is Pujols available in a keeper league?
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:41 pm to papz
quote:
Wow... that's a very good offer in my opinion. I'd take Kemp and the 11th pick.
so what we've learned today is you are in love with overrated outfielders
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:42 pm to CE Tiger
quote:
why is Pujols available in a keeper league?
quote:
You obviously need to explain the keeper rules for this league.
Must be a league where the better player you keep the more you have to give up.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:48 pm to CE Tiger
quote:
so what we've learned today is you are in love with overrated outfielders
What I learned today is that you don't understand what good value is and that you still have nightmares about BJ Upton.
Since you have trouble with this, not only does he retain a first round pick, he'd be acquiring that guy that could potentially give him a .280+ AVG, 25 HR, 25 SB, and 90 R, and 90 RBI's. I'm not sure you would know what value is if it slapped you across the face.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:50 pm to papz
a wise man once said you dont win a league in the first round but can definitely lose it.
sorry bub i aint going for a potential upside in the first when i have a guarantee with Albert
quote:
could potentially give him
sorry bub i aint going for a potential upside in the first when i have a guarantee with Albert
Posted on 3/1/11 at 1:57 pm to CE Tiger
What I've also learned today is that you have reading comprehension issues. A Ryan Howard/Prince Fielder scenario at the bottom of the first is not potential upside. It's not Pujols for Kemp... not sure you understand that.
This post was edited on 3/1/11 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:02 pm to papz
and if kemp doesnt pan out he is just another BJ Upton so you significantly downgraded your 1B and got a run of the mill OF thrown in in the process.
Id rather a year with Pujols IMO
Id rather a year with Pujols IMO
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:02 pm to DEANintheYAY
Sorry about that. A bit under the weather.
Keepers kept in the round they were drafted. Hitters no lower than the 8th round. Pitchers no lower than the 12th round. Three total with one hitter and one pitcher with the third either a hitter or a pitcher. We also are allowed one ROOKIE at any position. They are slotted in the round they were drafted with no floor provided they were not dropped during the season they were drafted. First rounders not keepable.
Keepers kept in the round they were drafted. Hitters no lower than the 8th round. Pitchers no lower than the 12th round. Three total with one hitter and one pitcher with the third either a hitter or a pitcher. We also are allowed one ROOKIE at any position. They are slotted in the round they were drafted with no floor provided they were not dropped during the season they were drafted. First rounders not keepable.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:05 pm to DEANintheYAY
dont see Kemp as that big of an upgrade and you wouldnt be able to keep fielder/howard either next year so I would go with Albert
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:18 pm to CE Tiger
quote:
and if kemp doesnt pan out he is just another BJ Upton so you significantly downgraded your 1B and got a run of the mill OF thrown in in the process.
The problem I have with this is that a typical Howard/Fielder year isn't this significant downgrade. Downgrade yes, significant hardly. Also Matt Kemp isn't just a run of the mill OF'er, he's a legitimate fantasy commodity. His power/speed combo, along with the ability to hit for average(at least until last year) makes him very valuable. Now while you may downgrade a bit at 1B, overall... you'll likely be improving your team as a whole. Obviously you know what you're getting with Pujols, elite numbers from 1B. But it's my opinion that the upside in doing this deal far outweighs the risk.
quote:
Id rather a year with Pujols IMO
I have no problem with this. Trading someone like Pujols is really tough to do. Can't rag on someone for keeping the best player in the game on his team.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:29 pm to papz
quote:
Also Matt Kemp isn't just a run of the mill OF'er, he's a legitimate fantasy commodity.
mwh you talk about value, if he doesnt increase his average (and with his K rate last year I dont see an increase) their are a bunch of OFs available that will give you HR totals in the 20s and steals in the teens available for cheap.
howard is on the decline and who knows what the frick prince is going to do (odd number contract year so im sure it will be a good one). when its all said and done I would rather have Albert and look for my value OF later in the draft. Id maybe change my tune if he switches his 2nd pick with you as well but if he gets 1st and 14th then you are getting arse raped in the deal
This post was edited on 3/1/11 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:32 pm to CE Tiger
I'd just like to add that the keeper structure seems a bit over engineered. 
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:41 pm to CE Tiger
One down year and these players are suddenly on the decline... let's not jump to conclusions here. Howard didn't just become Todd Helton and Kemp didn't just turn into Mark Reynolds. I guess we'll just agree to disagree here.
Posted on 3/1/11 at 2:44 pm to papz
quote:
I guess we'll just agree to disagree here.
what's the fun in that???
Posted on 3/1/11 at 3:19 pm to DEANintheYAY
Usually when someone explains out a trade that much it means he's trying to convince you that's he's not really screwing you if he is.
Posted on 3/2/11 at 3:18 pm to The Boat
Just got offered Rios from a different guy. Rios would be slotted in the 8th round.
Still inclined to take AP at #1 and be happy.
Still inclined to take AP at #1 and be happy.
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