re: Tiered Cheat Sheet (Update Pg.9)

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 12:58 pm to CajunFootball

you like Ben Tate that much? lol

really though, if Foster falls off a little, and he should, he is still a top 3 RB.

last year he had 1600 yards/16 TDs

if that falls to even 1200 yards and 12 TDs, he still would have been the top 3 ranked RB last year.

you realize in a PPR league, he scored almost 100 more points than the #2 RB? He had twice as many catches and rec yardage as ADrian Peterson last year. He had nearly 3xs are many rec yards as Chris Johnson and over 20 more catches.

If fully healthy he gets 290 carries minimum,

All this talk about resting him late in the season cause they are going to be in a playoff run is just stupid. The Texans? Really? they will never be in position to do that as long as the Colts are good.

Posted by CajunFootball

Jackson, Mississippi

Member since Oct 2010

19432 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 1:10 pm to Lester Earl

quote:
you like Ben Tate that much? lol

So you don't think the guy who was down to start last season isn't going to start to take snaps away? What if Tate is as good as projected? Then they're sitting with two studs.

quote:
if Foster falls off a little, and he should, he is still a top 3 RB.

He had an unbelievable year last year. He benefited from a passing game that struggled(Andre/Schaub fell) and really having no backup.

If he proves to put up the same numbers again then good for him, but I don't think he's as locked into the top 3 as Peterson/Johnson are. They are safer bets(less upside then if Foster goes off again).

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 1:36 pm to CajunFootball

quote:
So you don't think the guy who was down to start last season isn't going to start to take snaps away? What if Tate is as good as projected? Then they're sitting with two studs.

He may be good, but he'll be a backup. No way Foster losses his job. Maybe he gets 75-100 carries. Foster will be around 300.

quote:
He had an unbelievable year last year. He benefited from a passing game that struggled(Andre/Schaub fell) and really having no backup.

benefitted from a struggling passing game? Hmm, never heard that one. It is usually the other way around.

HOU threw the ball a lot last year. They were around 9th or 10 in attempts in the whole league. Their passing game wasnt as good as years past, which usually goes against being able to run the ball.

if their passing game improves, generally it will open up the running game.

quote:
If he proves to put up the same numbers again then good for him, but I don't think he's as locked into the top 3 as Peterson/Johnson are. They are safer bets(less upside then if Foster goes off again).

you had him ranked 7th, no? or was that someone else?

Posted by PortCityTiger24

Member since Dec 2006

87455 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 1:41 pm to CajunFootball

quote:
So you don't think the guy who was down to start last season isn't going to start to take snaps away?

Last year's preseason doesn't matter anymore. Arian Foster went from being a borderline guy to being a top 5 RB in the NFL. Different story now. Tate will get some carries, but not enough to drop tate out of the top 5 fantasy rb's.

I would probably go Peterson, CJ, and then Foster but I wouldn't be shocked if Foster was the top Fantasy RB again this season.

0 ...

Posted by CajunFootball

Jackson, Mississippi

Member since Oct 2010

19432 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 1:43 pm to Lester Earl

I had him 7th before I finished the list. Now he's the 4th best back on my list.

1.) Johnson/Peterson tied at 2.14
2.) Johnson/Peterson tied at 2.14
3.) Jammal Charles w/ 5.00
4.) Arian Foster w/ 5.36
5.) MJD w/ 6.43
6.) Rice/Mendenhall tied with 8.43
7.) Rice/Mendenhall tied with 8.43
8.) Michael Turner w/ 9.71
9.) Frank Gore w/ 10.00

So I have him right outside the top 3 by .36 which I don't see as anything major. If you have the third pick and he's still there then he could be worth it..or maybe not.

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 1:47 pm to CajunFootball

so you afraid he may lose carries to Tate but he is right behind Charles who is almost assuredly to lose carries to Thomas Jones?

a guy who had more than 16 carries only 3 times all season?

a guy that had 15 less carries over the course of the year than Thomas Jones?

I agree that Charles is SICK, but his carry situation would worry me a lot more than Arian Foster

Posted by CajunFootball

Jackson, Mississippi

Member since Oct 2010

19432 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 1:50 pm to Lester Earl

I have it ranked upon the prediction of 5 sites(Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, NFL, FootballGuru) and the previous two seasons. I agree that Charles is as big a risk as Foster(although I think he starts to get more carries) but he's be inside the top 10 twice now. Most everyone has him down as the 4th best back, but I may slightly overvalue him.

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Posted by jojothetireguy

Live out in Coconut Grove

Member since Jan 2009

10484 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 2:32 pm to Lester Earl

Foster is a top back, but my thinking is don't expect the same numbers. In my league he was more than 100 points better than the next back. These are the points for last year, PPR my league

Foster, Arian RB HOU 403.0
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI 283.0
Hillis, Peyton RB CLE 279.0
Charles, Jamaal RB KC 271.0
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 263.0
Rice, Ray RB BAL 261.0
Johnson, Chris RB TEN 259.0

Foster will have a good year because of that offense, just don't expect the same numbers. Tate will eat into his carries some, but Defenses will be able to read the Foster run's better benefiting from a full year of film.
If we ran through a quick mock, in a PPR i would think it would be a jumbled mess, where really no one is wrong in taking the top five guys. You also have to take into account how well McCoy did and Rice. To me MJD drops down below these two because of his inconsistency, 200 yards one game and 22 yards the next.

This post was edited on 7/27/11 at 2:34 pm

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 2:34 pm to jojothetireguy

quote:
Foster will have a good year because of that offense, just don't expect the same numbers.

Im not, that is what i even said.

if he runs for 1200 yards and his TDs are cut back to 10-12 and he has 55 catches, for 500 yards, he is still a top 3 back. That is kind of my point. He was that good last year. Even if he regresses, which is likely, he still is going to be one of the top guys if healthy

Posted by jojothetireguy

Live out in Coconut Grove

Member since Jan 2009

10484 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 2:41 pm to Lester Earl

quote:
if he runs for 1200 yards and his TDs are cut back to 10-12 and he has 55 catches, for 500 yards, he is still a top 3 back. That is kind of my point. He was that good last year. Even if he regresses, which is likely, he still is going to be one of the top guys if healthy

definitely, i think it's more of a consistency thing. He's done it one year as opposed to the standard guys. Johnson and Peterson, you know what you're going to get. Gore if healthy, you have a good idea of what you'll get.
Charles, Hillis, Foster can all potentially be better than the top three, but you have to be willing to risk that 1-3 pick to find out. Because they will be gone by pick 8(except Hillis).

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 2:47 pm to jojothetireguy

quote:
definitely, i think it's more of a consistency thing. He's done it one year as opposed to the standard guys

Ok, i pose this question then: who is the last guy to lead the league in rushing that just fell off the map for reasons other than injuries?

or even just someone that had a 1400/1500 yard season?

it's pretty rare. It's only 1 year, i get that. But its not everyday a run of the mill player just hops out of bed and has a season like that.

Posted by jojothetireguy

Live out in Coconut Grove

Member since Jan 2009

10484 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:02 pm to Lester Earl

i meant consistency in drafting. People are fairly certain that Peterson will hit the same numbers year in and year out. But with only a one year history, we are not certain what Foster's numbers will be like, year in and year out. I'm not saying he won't be consistently high, just not enough history on the player to say he will be. Kinda like in business, you order goods for your company based on history. The more history you have the better chance you have of hitting it right on the head. Foster worked out perfectly for me. I eyeballed him from the very beginning and grabbed him in the 6th round. I'm just worried about Tate and how it will affect him. That's why i think the safer play at 1-2 is consistency.

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:09 pm to jojothetireguy

quote:
i meant consistency in drafting.

it's all the same thing. if you are going to base who you draft on numbers, then it comes full circle.

as far as going on history, history shows that guys that lead the league in rushing are not flukes.

A guy like Chris Johnson for example. Runs for 2000 yards, than follows it up wtih 1300 yard season. Is that consistent? No. But its still really freaking good.

another thing regarding Johnson...his rookie year he went for 1200 yards, and i bet a lot of people were saying the same thing regarding Foster this year. Remember Lendale White?? oh oh he is going to take TDs from Johnson!!!!!

Yea, He only followed that up with a 2000k season.

Posted by jojothetireguy

Live out in Coconut Grove

Member since Jan 2009

10484 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:15 pm to Lester Earl

you make good points and i'm not disagreeing with you, just pointing out reasons why people will be somewhat cautious at the one spot with him.

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278287 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:18 pm to jojothetireguy

im not disagreeing either, just looking for some FFB talk

those are my top 3 guys too so little to disagree about. just sounds like i believe in Foster a little more

Posted by CajunFootball

Jackson, Mississippi

Member since Oct 2010

19432 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:30 pm to Lester Earl

Your points are well placed. If I'm sitting fourth(which I will be) and Foster drops to my lap then I draft him without question. However, if I'm sitting at #1/2 then I personally go after Peterson/Johnson as a safer bet. It's hard to predict where he's going to place. Using past seasons doesn't really help you understand here an now, but they are good things to look at.

Posted by jojothetireguy

Live out in Coconut Grove

Member since Jan 2009

10484 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:38 pm to CajunFootball

quote:
Your points are well placed. If I'm sitting fourth(which I will be) and Foster drops to my lap then I draft him without question. However, if I'm sitting at #1/2 then I personally go after Peterson/Johnson as a safer bet. It's hard to predict where he's going to place. Using past seasons doesn't really help you understand here an now, but they are good things to look at.

this is what i'm thinking. I hope i don't get the first pick, to much pressure

eta...Let's move off of Foster, so where does Vick rank

This post was edited on 7/27/11 at 3:39 pm

Posted by PortCityTiger24

Member since Dec 2006

87455 posts

Posted on 7/27/11 at 3:45 pm to jojothetireguy

quote:
so where does Vick rank

I would take Rogers, Manning, Brees, Brady, and Rivers before him.

I'd put him in the group with Ryan, Romo, and Shaub. Stafford, Kolb and Freeman are right behind them as guys who could put up big numbers but are still risks.

This post was edited on 7/27/11 at 3:46 pm