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re: FSBDL 2020 - CWill is your Champion

Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:07 am to
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
71970 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:07 am to
Im looking for a cornerstone 1B if anyone is selling
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:10 am to
Damn Sandy, looking at your team that was GDCK the last 2-3 years, it looks like your championship window has slammed shut for the time being
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
71970 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:14 am to
Yap

Everything that could go wrong went wrong last season

Machado to SD - bleh
Dozier, Shaw, Wade Davis huge regression
Khrush sucking after getting hurt

Didi, Hicks, Sevy, were few of the many injuries

There is a rebound there i think
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:17 am to
I’m pulling for you you know that
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
71970 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:22 am to
I got the only guys who couldnt make a jump with the new balls
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 11:26 am to
I saw that Khrush stat before/after injury. Pretty telling. He was one of your early catalyst tho
Posted by Chatagnier
Member since Sep 2008
6851 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:12 pm to
Offer sent
Posted by Chatagnier
Member since Sep 2008
6851 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 5:25 pm to
Excited to get home and finally watch the Braves game. Turn on the TV without knowing the score.

Posted by OneMoreTime
Florida Gulf Coast Fan
Member since Dec 2008
61834 posts
Posted on 10/9/19 at 6:34 pm to
I’m fully expecting the Rays to suffer the same fate tomorrow
Posted by MrWiseGuy
Member since Dec 2009
27419 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 5:36 am to
Juan Soto is who everyone wanted Bryce Harper to be
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 8:57 am to
I really hate these balls. Lol at that ball Howie hit getting out of the park
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
71970 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 9:04 am to
He crushed that. Kendrick is a low key unit
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 9:11 am to
Hit hard no doubt but that type of trajectory doesn’t get out of that park like that
Posted by OneMoreTime
Florida Gulf Coast Fan
Member since Dec 2008
61834 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:10 am to
A lot of people think that they’ve changed the balls back for the postseason. The drag on the baseball has jumped way up.

LINK

quote:

And as air resistance increased, some of the most home run-happy offenses of 2019 have combined to produce a playoff dinger rate 10 percent lower than the league average. Another way to tell how big of an impact the ball is having is to look at how often hitters are mashing the ball only to find their deep flies dying before the fence. I built a model to predict the probability of each home run hit in 2019 using exit velocity, launch angle, and a park effect. Then I examined how many times batters hit what looked like sure home runs that dropped for outs instead.

In total, this model predicted that there should have been 24 more home runs so far in the playoffs than the 43 that were actually hit–an astounding 50 percent difference. For example, Muncy’s monster blast had a 95 percent probability of clearing the fence based on the regular season baseball. Instead, it fell several feet short. Two other fly balls had in excess of a 98 percent chance of being home runs before becoming outs instead.
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:15 am to
quote:

Hit hard no doubt but that type of trajectory doesn’t get out of that park like that


Let's check statcast!


quote:

Howie Kendrick off RHP Joe Kelly - 105.0 mph, 24.88 degrees (410 ft Home Run)






66 out of 71 similar balls in play this year were home runs = 93%

18 HR traveled less distance that Kendrick's 410 ft HR. 5 of them to CF.


This post was edited on 10/10/19 at 11:35 am
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:29 am to
There were 3 HR hit in Dodger stadium this year with almost the exact speed, angle and location.

That ball doesn't get out in 4 maybe 5 parks. One of the chart's doubles and one of the triples were hit in those parks. Coors and Comerica.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:34 am to
Key words: this year
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:35 am to
wut?



quote:

66 out of 71 similar balls in play this year were home runs = 93%
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278174 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:39 am to
The data for the whole year is skewed because of the balls

Wut are you wutting
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 10/10/19 at 11:51 am to
This originally

quote:

Hit hard no doubt but that type of trajectory doesn’t get out of that park like that



Now this too I guess


quote:

The data for the whole year is skewed because of the balls


Using same launch angle and exit velocity metrics

2018 HR = 64/72 = 91.6%

2019 HR = 66/71 = 92.9%


What other excuse you want to make for not understanding launch speed angles and HR correlations?

This post was edited on 10/10/19 at 11:54 am
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