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re: 2024 NFL News & Notes Thread
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:53 pm to CBandits82
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:53 pm to CBandits82
Detroit Lions
24. After returning from a mid-season hamstring injury in Week 10, Jahmyr Gibbs went on to average 15.1 Half-PPR points per game (RB5) in a split backfield with David Montgomery (12.3 FPG | RB20).
24b. From Week 10 on (through the playoffs), Gibbs played on 54% of the snaps compared to 44% for Montgomery.
24c. Montgomery saw more carries (164 to 134) in these 12 games together, but Gibbs earned far more targets (52 to 20).
24d. Targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues.
24e. Crucially, Gibbs made up ground on Montgomery in the red zone. David Montgomery led the duo with 36 carries (8 TDs) by a slim margin over Jahmyr Gibbs – 35 RZ carries (10 TDs).
24f. Montgomery had more goal-line inside 5 carries (19 to 10), but Gibbs was trending up with red-zone work to close out the year.
25. The Lions are second (25.7) ahead of the Chiefs (25.5) in implied points per game by a tiny margin. Detroit is in a tier of its own along the offensive line with the league’s best unit, per former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto. Combined with the 7th-easiest season-long strength of schedule for QBs and RBs, Detroit is set up incredibly well to continue as a top fantasy offense.
26. Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned at least seven targets in 34 of his last 37 games (including playoffs) dating back to the end of his rookie season in 2021.
26b. St. Brown has finished WR9 (34.9%) and WR7 (33.9%) in first-read target share over the last two seasons.
26c. In fact, the only receiver to be targeted at a higher rate on their routes than St. Brown (0.31) over the last two seasons is Tyreek Hill (0.35 targets per route run).
27. Sam LaPorta's 239.3 PPR points scored were the most ever by a rookie TE in NFL history – by a 38.5-point margin!
27b. That would have been the 12th-most total PPR points in rookie season by a WR all-time: Randy Moss (306.7), Ja'Marr Chase (304.6), Puka Nacua (298.5), Odell Beckham Jr. (295), Anquan Boldin (282.7), Justin Jefferson (274.2), Michael Thomas (255.7), Jaylen Waddle (245.8), Mike Evans (245.1), Michael Clayton (244.3), and Terry Glenn (243.4).
24. After returning from a mid-season hamstring injury in Week 10, Jahmyr Gibbs went on to average 15.1 Half-PPR points per game (RB5) in a split backfield with David Montgomery (12.3 FPG | RB20).
24b. From Week 10 on (through the playoffs), Gibbs played on 54% of the snaps compared to 44% for Montgomery.
24c. Montgomery saw more carries (164 to 134) in these 12 games together, but Gibbs earned far more targets (52 to 20).
24d. Targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues.
24e. Crucially, Gibbs made up ground on Montgomery in the red zone. David Montgomery led the duo with 36 carries (8 TDs) by a slim margin over Jahmyr Gibbs – 35 RZ carries (10 TDs).
24f. Montgomery had more goal-line inside 5 carries (19 to 10), but Gibbs was trending up with red-zone work to close out the year.
25. The Lions are second (25.7) ahead of the Chiefs (25.5) in implied points per game by a tiny margin. Detroit is in a tier of its own along the offensive line with the league’s best unit, per former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto. Combined with the 7th-easiest season-long strength of schedule for QBs and RBs, Detroit is set up incredibly well to continue as a top fantasy offense.
26. Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned at least seven targets in 34 of his last 37 games (including playoffs) dating back to the end of his rookie season in 2021.
26b. St. Brown has finished WR9 (34.9%) and WR7 (33.9%) in first-read target share over the last two seasons.
26c. In fact, the only receiver to be targeted at a higher rate on their routes than St. Brown (0.31) over the last two seasons is Tyreek Hill (0.35 targets per route run).
27. Sam LaPorta's 239.3 PPR points scored were the most ever by a rookie TE in NFL history – by a 38.5-point margin!
27b. That would have been the 12th-most total PPR points in rookie season by a WR all-time: Randy Moss (306.7), Ja'Marr Chase (304.6), Puka Nacua (298.5), Odell Beckham Jr. (295), Anquan Boldin (282.7), Justin Jefferson (274.2), Michael Thomas (255.7), Jaylen Waddle (245.8), Mike Evans (245.1), Michael Clayton (244.3), and Terry Glenn (243.4).
1
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:57 pm to CBandits82
Green Bay Packers
28. Jordan Love closed the final 12 games of 2023 with 261.1 passing yards per game (7.83 YPA) and a stellar 26:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
28b. This is not taking anything away from him at all. Love put up 20.3 FPG (QB5) in this stretch and was still 1.8 FPG away from top-3 levels, further highlighting how hard it is for pocket passers to truly compete with the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Hurts at their peak.
29. Josh Jacobs scored -4.4 fewer Half-PPR points than he should have based on expected fantasy points. Among the 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, only Austin Ekeler (-4.9 FPG below expected) and Tony Pollard (-4.6 FPG) were more unlucky/inefficient.
29b.He just was not the same runner last season. Jacobs fell to just 2.29 yards after contact per carry after he crushed two years ago to the tune of 3.23 YAC per carry (8th-best) two years ago.
29c. According to our FP Data, Jacobs was arguably the best running back in the game in 2022. He was absolutely stellar in the Raiders' zone-blocking system, averaging 4.83 YPC and a 66% success rate on those carries (the best). Last year, those figures cratered to a lowly 3.36 YPC (and a 49% success rate).
30. Packers HC Matt LaFleur has not given a single RB more than 50% of the team’s carries since 2019 (Aaron Jones – 57%).
30b. His lead RB has averaged between 48% to 42% of the total carries in four-straight seasons.
30c. This is Green Bay’s backfield usage – by snaps – since LaFleur became the head coach:
2019 – Aaron Jones (62% snap rate) | Jamaal Williams (35%)
2020 – Jones (52%) | Williams (40%)
2021 – Jones (60%) | Dillon (42%)
2022 – Jones (58%) | Dillon (48%)
2023 – Dillon (51%) | Jones (49%)
31. Romeo Doubs (72%) and Christian Watson (67%) led the Packers WR/TE rotation in route share followed by Luke Musgrave (59%), Reed (57%), Dontayvion Wicks (33%), and Tucker Kraft (25%) in their eight games together.
31b. Doubs (21%) and Watson (20%) split the plurality of first-read targets, followed by Reed (15%), and Musgrave (14%).
28. Jordan Love closed the final 12 games of 2023 with 261.1 passing yards per game (7.83 YPA) and a stellar 26:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
28b. This is not taking anything away from him at all. Love put up 20.3 FPG (QB5) in this stretch and was still 1.8 FPG away from top-3 levels, further highlighting how hard it is for pocket passers to truly compete with the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Hurts at their peak.
29. Josh Jacobs scored -4.4 fewer Half-PPR points than he should have based on expected fantasy points. Among the 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, only Austin Ekeler (-4.9 FPG below expected) and Tony Pollard (-4.6 FPG) were more unlucky/inefficient.
29b.He just was not the same runner last season. Jacobs fell to just 2.29 yards after contact per carry after he crushed two years ago to the tune of 3.23 YAC per carry (8th-best) two years ago.
29c. According to our FP Data, Jacobs was arguably the best running back in the game in 2022. He was absolutely stellar in the Raiders' zone-blocking system, averaging 4.83 YPC and a 66% success rate on those carries (the best). Last year, those figures cratered to a lowly 3.36 YPC (and a 49% success rate).
30. Packers HC Matt LaFleur has not given a single RB more than 50% of the team’s carries since 2019 (Aaron Jones – 57%).
30b. His lead RB has averaged between 48% to 42% of the total carries in four-straight seasons.
30c. This is Green Bay’s backfield usage – by snaps – since LaFleur became the head coach:
2019 – Aaron Jones (62% snap rate) | Jamaal Williams (35%)
2020 – Jones (52%) | Williams (40%)
2021 – Jones (60%) | Dillon (42%)
2022 – Jones (58%) | Dillon (48%)
2023 – Dillon (51%) | Jones (49%)
31. Romeo Doubs (72%) and Christian Watson (67%) led the Packers WR/TE rotation in route share followed by Luke Musgrave (59%), Reed (57%), Dontayvion Wicks (33%), and Tucker Kraft (25%) in their eight games together.
31b. Doubs (21%) and Watson (20%) split the plurality of first-read targets, followed by Reed (15%), and Musgrave (14%).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:58 pm to CBandits82
Houston Texans
32. In their eight full games together last season, Nico Collins led Tank Dell in first-read target share by a 28% to 22% margin. Robert Woods was the third WR with a 20% FR share.
32b. Collins averaged 85.1 receiving yards per game (WR8) while Dell put up 74.5 YPG (WR13).
32c. Collins averaged 2.96 yards per route run (WR4) while Dell averaged 2.50 YPRR (WR11).
32d. Collins also saw more designed targets (7) than Dell (1).
32e. Dell finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 6-of-9 games that he finished last season.
32f. Collins was a top-24 WR in 8-of-13 games with Stroud.
32g. Last year, Collins (59% route share), Woods (55%), and Dell (50%) rotated when the Texans went into 12-personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). We’ll likely see a similar distribution this season with Stefon Diggs in the fold and Dell as the most likely to sit out in some 2-TE sets.
33. Diggs’ efficiency really wasn’t as bad as you remember. He still averaged 1.96 yards per route run – the GOAT stat – across 19 games (including playoffs). This ranked 33rd-of-99 WRs with at least 250 routes. Impressive? No. Washed? Hardly.
33b. In 2022, Diggs ranked 9th-of-98 WRs in YPRR (2.50), and he was 22nd-best receiver the year prior (1.89 YPRR).
33c. Last season, Tank Dell led all receivers in arse (average separation score) at 0.26. Nico Collins was 10th-best (0.19 arse). Do you know who was 11th-best?
33d. That’d be Diggs (0.18 arse).
32. In their eight full games together last season, Nico Collins led Tank Dell in first-read target share by a 28% to 22% margin. Robert Woods was the third WR with a 20% FR share.
32b. Collins averaged 85.1 receiving yards per game (WR8) while Dell put up 74.5 YPG (WR13).
32c. Collins averaged 2.96 yards per route run (WR4) while Dell averaged 2.50 YPRR (WR11).
32d. Collins also saw more designed targets (7) than Dell (1).
32e. Dell finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 6-of-9 games that he finished last season.
32f. Collins was a top-24 WR in 8-of-13 games with Stroud.
32g. Last year, Collins (59% route share), Woods (55%), and Dell (50%) rotated when the Texans went into 12-personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). We’ll likely see a similar distribution this season with Stefon Diggs in the fold and Dell as the most likely to sit out in some 2-TE sets.
33. Diggs’ efficiency really wasn’t as bad as you remember. He still averaged 1.96 yards per route run – the GOAT stat – across 19 games (including playoffs). This ranked 33rd-of-99 WRs with at least 250 routes. Impressive? No. Washed? Hardly.
33b. In 2022, Diggs ranked 9th-of-98 WRs in YPRR (2.50), and he was 22nd-best receiver the year prior (1.89 YPRR).
33c. Last season, Tank Dell led all receivers in arse (average separation score) at 0.26. Nico Collins was 10th-best (0.19 arse). Do you know who was 11th-best?
33d. That’d be Diggs (0.18 arse).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:58 pm to CBandits82
Indianapolis Colts
34. In four games under center, Richardson put up 0.76 fantasy points per dropback. For reference, this would have easily led all QBs if he had sustained that rate over the course of 14-15 games. It’s highly unlikely that Richardson will remain this efficient, however. It does highlight just how lethal these dual-threat QBs are in fantasy when it all works.
34b. Josh Allen led all QBs in FP/DB (0.64) again last season. Jalen Hurts was QB1 in FP/DB two years ago (0.71).
34c. In his four starts, Richardson averaged 4.5 designed carries per game. This was fourth-most among all quarterbacks, trailing only Lamar Jackson (5.1), Justin Fields (6.2), and Jalen Hurts (6.4).
34d. Richardson led all QBs in yards per carry-on designed runs (5.5), followed by Jackson (4.7).
34e. OC Shane Steichen was not conservative with Richardson early. The Colts actually had a higher pass rate (61%) with Richardson on the field than they did with Minshew (59%).
35. Receivers Michael Pittman (50/529/3 receiving) and Josh Downs (40/473/2) were off to pretty similar starts through eight games last season.
35b. Pittman out-targeted Downs 74 to 54, but only marginally beat Downs in yards per game (66.1 to 59.1).
35c. By expected fantasy points per route run, Pittman and Downs had identical scores (0.42).
35d. Downs suffered a knee injury in Week 9 that cost him his explosiveness. In his first eight games, Downs had a better YPRR (2.0) than Pittman (1.8).
35e. From Weeks 9-18, Pittman averaged 2.7 YPRR while Downs (1.5) fell by the wayside.
Bonus stat for the darkhorse RB1 candidate: Over the last four combined seasons, Jonathan Taylor is RB3 in scrimmage yards per game (104.5). This trails only CMC (117.7) and Derrick Henry (114.9). Only Henry (52 TDs) has scored more times on the ground than Taylor (40) in this span.
34. In four games under center, Richardson put up 0.76 fantasy points per dropback. For reference, this would have easily led all QBs if he had sustained that rate over the course of 14-15 games. It’s highly unlikely that Richardson will remain this efficient, however. It does highlight just how lethal these dual-threat QBs are in fantasy when it all works.
34b. Josh Allen led all QBs in FP/DB (0.64) again last season. Jalen Hurts was QB1 in FP/DB two years ago (0.71).
34c. In his four starts, Richardson averaged 4.5 designed carries per game. This was fourth-most among all quarterbacks, trailing only Lamar Jackson (5.1), Justin Fields (6.2), and Jalen Hurts (6.4).
34d. Richardson led all QBs in yards per carry-on designed runs (5.5), followed by Jackson (4.7).
34e. OC Shane Steichen was not conservative with Richardson early. The Colts actually had a higher pass rate (61%) with Richardson on the field than they did with Minshew (59%).
35. Receivers Michael Pittman (50/529/3 receiving) and Josh Downs (40/473/2) were off to pretty similar starts through eight games last season.
35b. Pittman out-targeted Downs 74 to 54, but only marginally beat Downs in yards per game (66.1 to 59.1).
35c. By expected fantasy points per route run, Pittman and Downs had identical scores (0.42).
35d. Downs suffered a knee injury in Week 9 that cost him his explosiveness. In his first eight games, Downs had a better YPRR (2.0) than Pittman (1.8).
35e. From Weeks 9-18, Pittman averaged 2.7 YPRR while Downs (1.5) fell by the wayside.
Bonus stat for the darkhorse RB1 candidate: Over the last four combined seasons, Jonathan Taylor is RB3 in scrimmage yards per game (104.5). This trails only CMC (117.7) and Derrick Henry (114.9). Only Henry (52 TDs) has scored more times on the ground than Taylor (40) in this span.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:58 pm to CBandits82
Jacksonville Jaguars
36. Last season, Travis Etienne finished as the RB7 in FPG. The key was Etienne evolving into a bell cow — he was the RB6 in snaps (74%).
36b. The big uptick in snaps really boosted Etienne’s floor, and he was 8th among all RBs in targets per game (4.3).
36c. Etienne’s route share jumped from 42% (RB17) up to 50% (RB8) last season.
36d. There might be a little bit of additional upside here if the Jaguars can improve after having mostly vanilla run concepts and below-average blocking last season. Jacksonville ranked dead last in yards before contact per carry (0.94), which can’t happen again if they’re to have an effective offense. Two seasons ago, the Jaguars were top-5 in yards before contact (2.06 per carry).
36e. This is why Etienne’s YPC dropped from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 last season.
36f. Etienne just looks like a high-floor bell cow. The only downside is that the Jaguars have pulled him at the goal line relatively often. Over the last two seasons, Etienne has handled just 44% (2022) and 58% (2023) of the team’s carries inside-the-5.
36g. He’s not a bad goal-line RB at all. Etienne has scored 8 TDs on his 24 carries inside-the-5 in his career.
36. Last season, Travis Etienne finished as the RB7 in FPG. The key was Etienne evolving into a bell cow — he was the RB6 in snaps (74%).
36b. The big uptick in snaps really boosted Etienne’s floor, and he was 8th among all RBs in targets per game (4.3).
36c. Etienne’s route share jumped from 42% (RB17) up to 50% (RB8) last season.
36d. There might be a little bit of additional upside here if the Jaguars can improve after having mostly vanilla run concepts and below-average blocking last season. Jacksonville ranked dead last in yards before contact per carry (0.94), which can’t happen again if they’re to have an effective offense. Two seasons ago, the Jaguars were top-5 in yards before contact (2.06 per carry).
36e. This is why Etienne’s YPC dropped from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 last season.
36f. Etienne just looks like a high-floor bell cow. The only downside is that the Jaguars have pulled him at the goal line relatively often. Over the last two seasons, Etienne has handled just 44% (2022) and 58% (2023) of the team’s carries inside-the-5.
36g. He’s not a bad goal-line RB at all. Etienne has scored 8 TDs on his 24 carries inside-the-5 in his career.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:04 pm to CBandits82
Kansas City Chiefs
37. Kansas City is projected to return as a top-3 scoring offense. By the DraftKings lookahead lines for Weeks 1-17, the Chiefs 25.5 implied points per game trails only Detroit (25.7) and San Francisco (26.2).
37b. This means that Patrick Mahomes is due for a big uptick in touchdowns. His touchdown rate last season (4.5%) was easily a career-low and two percentage points off his career rate (6.5%).
37c. Before last season (QB12), Mahomes’ career finishes in fantasy points per game were QB1, QB6, QB2, QB5, and QB3.
38. Across their final 11 games last season, Rashee Rice earned 92 targets to Travis Kelce’s 86.
38b. Rice averaged 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game (WR10) with the lowest average depth of target (4.6 yards) among qualified receivers in this span.
38c. A whopping 24% of Rice’s targets were designed, which signals how much the Chiefs wanted to get him the ball in space. His designed target rate trailed only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (28%) and Jayden Reed (25%).
38d. No WR saw a higher rate of catchable targets (87%) than Rice.
38e. Rice was an absolute beast after the catch last season. He led all WRs in yards after the catch (7.6) on non-designed targets over George Pickens (7.0), Greg Dortch (6.6), and Deebo Samuel (6.5).
39. Travis Kelce’s 14.8 FPG last season was his worst output since 2016.
39b. Kelce will be 35 in October. No tight end in NFL history has averaged more than 14.6 FPG at 35 years or older. That was Tony Gonzalez, back in 2012 on his Falcons renaissance tour.
39c. In fact, there have only been five occurrences where a tight end 35 or older averaged more than 12.5 FPG in a single season.
39d. Gonzalez did it three times. Antonio Gates (13.6) did it in 2015 at 35 years old, but he played in 11 games. Finally, Shannon Sharpe scored 12.5 PPR FPG in 2003.
37. Kansas City is projected to return as a top-3 scoring offense. By the DraftKings lookahead lines for Weeks 1-17, the Chiefs 25.5 implied points per game trails only Detroit (25.7) and San Francisco (26.2).
37b. This means that Patrick Mahomes is due for a big uptick in touchdowns. His touchdown rate last season (4.5%) was easily a career-low and two percentage points off his career rate (6.5%).
37c. Before last season (QB12), Mahomes’ career finishes in fantasy points per game were QB1, QB6, QB2, QB5, and QB3.
38. Across their final 11 games last season, Rashee Rice earned 92 targets to Travis Kelce’s 86.
38b. Rice averaged 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game (WR10) with the lowest average depth of target (4.6 yards) among qualified receivers in this span.
38c. A whopping 24% of Rice’s targets were designed, which signals how much the Chiefs wanted to get him the ball in space. His designed target rate trailed only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (28%) and Jayden Reed (25%).
38d. No WR saw a higher rate of catchable targets (87%) than Rice.
38e. Rice was an absolute beast after the catch last season. He led all WRs in yards after the catch (7.6) on non-designed targets over George Pickens (7.0), Greg Dortch (6.6), and Deebo Samuel (6.5).
39. Travis Kelce’s 14.8 FPG last season was his worst output since 2016.
39b. Kelce will be 35 in October. No tight end in NFL history has averaged more than 14.6 FPG at 35 years or older. That was Tony Gonzalez, back in 2012 on his Falcons renaissance tour.
39c. In fact, there have only been five occurrences where a tight end 35 or older averaged more than 12.5 FPG in a single season.
39d. Gonzalez did it three times. Antonio Gates (13.6) did it in 2015 at 35 years old, but he played in 11 games. Finally, Shannon Sharpe scored 12.5 PPR FPG in 2003.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:05 pm to CBandits82
Las Vegas Raiders
40. Davante Adams was the WR5 by expected Half-PPR fantasy points per game (17.8) last season – tied with Garrett Wilson.
40b. However, he only scored 12.6 FPG (WR17).
40c. Adams and DeAndre Hopkins saw the most total uncatchable targets (41) followed by Wilson and Calvin Ridley (38) last season.
40d. Aidan O’Connell finished 28th-of-33 QBs in catchable throw rate (73.5%) last season. Gardner Minshew (73.1% | 29th) wasn’t any better.
40e. Rookie TE Brock Bowers has the talent to immediately cut into Adams' usually lofty target share. Bowers broke every SEC record set by a TE in career receiving yards per game (63.5), receptions per game (4.4), and total TDs scored (31) since 2000.
40f. In fact, Bowers leads all TEs in NCAA in career scrimmage yards per game (68.3) since 2000. Bowers ran for 19/193/5 and was used on reverses and designed runs because he’s so hard to tackle in the open field.
40h. And, he trails only hybrid FB/TE Jaylen Samuels (47) in career touchdowns by a TE (Bowers scored 31). Oh, Bowers did 99% of this as an 18 to 20 year old. He turned 21 last December.
40. Davante Adams was the WR5 by expected Half-PPR fantasy points per game (17.8) last season – tied with Garrett Wilson.
40b. However, he only scored 12.6 FPG (WR17).
40c. Adams and DeAndre Hopkins saw the most total uncatchable targets (41) followed by Wilson and Calvin Ridley (38) last season.
40d. Aidan O’Connell finished 28th-of-33 QBs in catchable throw rate (73.5%) last season. Gardner Minshew (73.1% | 29th) wasn’t any better.
40e. Rookie TE Brock Bowers has the talent to immediately cut into Adams' usually lofty target share. Bowers broke every SEC record set by a TE in career receiving yards per game (63.5), receptions per game (4.4), and total TDs scored (31) since 2000.
40f. In fact, Bowers leads all TEs in NCAA in career scrimmage yards per game (68.3) since 2000. Bowers ran for 19/193/5 and was used on reverses and designed runs because he’s so hard to tackle in the open field.
40h. And, he trails only hybrid FB/TE Jaylen Samuels (47) in career touchdowns by a TE (Bowers scored 31). Oh, Bowers did 99% of this as an 18 to 20 year old. He turned 21 last December.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:06 pm to CBandits82
Los Angeles Chargers
41. Over the last four combined seasons, no team has run more total plays than the Los Angeles Chargers. New HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are going to do everything within their power to stop that from happening again. After playing within attacks that were top-5 in pass rate in each of the last three years, the Chargers will lean far more run-heavy this season.
41b. We’re projecting Herbert to rank 23rd in the league in pass attempts per game (30.5). This would be a huge volume loss, but it’s justified. Last season, Herbert averaged 36.6 passes per game (4th-most) before he missed the final five contests with a broken finger on his right hand.
41c. In both 2022 and 2021, Herbert was 2nd in pass attempts per game (40.3), trailing only Tom Brady.
41d. Herbert is the QB8 in FPG (19.1) since 2021, but his fantasy football resume is largely driven by volume. Legend Keenan Allen is now a Bear.
41. Over the last four combined seasons, no team has run more total plays than the Los Angeles Chargers. New HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are going to do everything within their power to stop that from happening again. After playing within attacks that were top-5 in pass rate in each of the last three years, the Chargers will lean far more run-heavy this season.
41b. We’re projecting Herbert to rank 23rd in the league in pass attempts per game (30.5). This would be a huge volume loss, but it’s justified. Last season, Herbert averaged 36.6 passes per game (4th-most) before he missed the final five contests with a broken finger on his right hand.
41c. In both 2022 and 2021, Herbert was 2nd in pass attempts per game (40.3), trailing only Tom Brady.
41d. Herbert is the QB8 in FPG (19.1) since 2021, but his fantasy football resume is largely driven by volume. Legend Keenan Allen is now a Bear.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:07 pm to CBandits82
Los Angeles Rams
42. Over the last three years, only Patrick Mahomes (285.4), Justin Herbert (274.2), Joe Burrow (271.3), and Kirk Cousins (270.7) have averaged more passing yards per game than Matthew Stafford (266.8) has in a Rams uniform.
43. Only two receivers in NFL history – Randy Moss (306.7) and Ja'Marr Chase (304.6) – have scored more PPR points in their rookie season than Puka Nacua (298.5) did last year.
43b. Across their 12 games together, Cooper Kupp led the Rams in first-read target share (33%), while Puka Nacua was second (27%) after taking out designed targets (like screens).
43c. Nacua averaged 16.9 PPR FPG (WR10), while Kupp put up 14.2 FPG (WR22).
43d. Nacua absolutely smoked Kupp in yards per route run vs. man coverage (3.70 to 1.52) but the duo was very close efficiency-wise when facing zones (2.64 YPRR for Nacua | 2.32 YPRR for Kupp).
43e. Ok, so is Kupp’s lack of efficiency against man coverage a red flag? Maybe. Probably not, though. He was never 100% last season after a nagging hamstring injury cost him Weeks 1-4. Also…
43f. What if I told you that Kupp slightly bested Nacua in arse (average separation score) last season? Would that blow your mind? Because that happened.
43e. Among the 53 receivers to have 100 routes against man coverage last season, Kupp ranked 23rd in arse – average separation score (0.16) – just ahead of Nacua (0.15 | 25th).
42. Over the last three years, only Patrick Mahomes (285.4), Justin Herbert (274.2), Joe Burrow (271.3), and Kirk Cousins (270.7) have averaged more passing yards per game than Matthew Stafford (266.8) has in a Rams uniform.
43. Only two receivers in NFL history – Randy Moss (306.7) and Ja'Marr Chase (304.6) – have scored more PPR points in their rookie season than Puka Nacua (298.5) did last year.
43b. Across their 12 games together, Cooper Kupp led the Rams in first-read target share (33%), while Puka Nacua was second (27%) after taking out designed targets (like screens).
43c. Nacua averaged 16.9 PPR FPG (WR10), while Kupp put up 14.2 FPG (WR22).
43d. Nacua absolutely smoked Kupp in yards per route run vs. man coverage (3.70 to 1.52) but the duo was very close efficiency-wise when facing zones (2.64 YPRR for Nacua | 2.32 YPRR for Kupp).
43e. Ok, so is Kupp’s lack of efficiency against man coverage a red flag? Maybe. Probably not, though. He was never 100% last season after a nagging hamstring injury cost him Weeks 1-4. Also…
43f. What if I told you that Kupp slightly bested Nacua in arse (average separation score) last season? Would that blow your mind? Because that happened.
43e. Among the 53 receivers to have 100 routes against man coverage last season, Kupp ranked 23rd in arse – average separation score (0.16) – just ahead of Nacua (0.15 | 25th).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:07 pm to CBandits82
Los Angeles Rams
42. Over the last three years, only Patrick Mahomes (285.4), Justin Herbert (274.2), Joe Burrow (271.3), and Kirk Cousins (270.7) have averaged more passing yards per game than Matthew Stafford (266.8) has in a Rams uniform.
43. Only two receivers in NFL history – Randy Moss (306.7) and Ja'Marr Chase (304.6) – have scored more PPR points in their rookie season than Puka Nacua (298.5) did last year.
43b. Across their 12 games together, Cooper Kupp led the Rams in first-read target share (33%), while Puka Nacua was second (27%) after taking out designed targets (like screens).
43c. Nacua averaged 16.9 PPR FPG (WR10), while Kupp put up 14.2 FPG (WR22).
43d. Nacua absolutely smoked Kupp in yards per route run vs. man coverage (3.70 to 1.52) but the duo was very close efficiency-wise when facing zones (2.64 YPRR for Nacua | 2.32 YPRR for Kupp).
43e. Ok, so is Kupp’s lack of efficiency against man coverage a red flag? Maybe. Probably not, though. He was never 100% last season after a nagging hamstring injury cost him Weeks 1-4. Also…
43f. What if I told you that Kupp slightly bested Nacua in arse (average separation score) last season? Would that blow your mind? Because that happened.
43e. Among the 53 receivers to have 100 routes against man coverage last season, Kupp ranked 23rd in arse – average separation score (0.16) – just ahead of Nacua (0.15 | 25th).
42. Over the last three years, only Patrick Mahomes (285.4), Justin Herbert (274.2), Joe Burrow (271.3), and Kirk Cousins (270.7) have averaged more passing yards per game than Matthew Stafford (266.8) has in a Rams uniform.
43. Only two receivers in NFL history – Randy Moss (306.7) and Ja'Marr Chase (304.6) – have scored more PPR points in their rookie season than Puka Nacua (298.5) did last year.
43b. Across their 12 games together, Cooper Kupp led the Rams in first-read target share (33%), while Puka Nacua was second (27%) after taking out designed targets (like screens).
43c. Nacua averaged 16.9 PPR FPG (WR10), while Kupp put up 14.2 FPG (WR22).
43d. Nacua absolutely smoked Kupp in yards per route run vs. man coverage (3.70 to 1.52) but the duo was very close efficiency-wise when facing zones (2.64 YPRR for Nacua | 2.32 YPRR for Kupp).
43e. Ok, so is Kupp’s lack of efficiency against man coverage a red flag? Maybe. Probably not, though. He was never 100% last season after a nagging hamstring injury cost him Weeks 1-4. Also…
43f. What if I told you that Kupp slightly bested Nacua in arse (average separation score) last season? Would that blow your mind? Because that happened.
43e. Among the 53 receivers to have 100 routes against man coverage last season, Kupp ranked 23rd in arse – average separation score (0.16) – just ahead of Nacua (0.15 | 25th).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:08 pm to CBandits82
Minnesota Vikings
46. Don’t bail on Jefferson with Sam Darnold under center.
46b. After he came back from a midseason hamstring injury, Jefferson dropped a casual 30/476/2 receiving (on 44 targets) in four games with Nick Mullens last season.
46c. It’s a small sample size, but Jefferson’s efficiency did not dip at all. He averaged 3.03 YPRR (157 routes) with Mullens and 2.99 YPPR (191 routes) with Kirk Cousins.
46d. This is after Jefferson ripped up the league for 128/1809/8 receiving (2.77 YPRR) the year prior.
46e. The Vikings' passing volume will dip with Darnold under center, but this should still be a pass-first offense. Minnesota led the NFL in passing yards (4,700) last season, and that was with Cousins missing half of the year. In fact, they were still 5th in pass rate over expectation (+4.3%) and 10th in pass rate when the game was within a score (63%) from Weeks 9-18 last season without Cousins. HC Kevin O’Connell loves to sling it.
46f. Jordan Addison fell from 15.8 PPR FPG in eight starts with Cousins to just 10.5 FPG with the Vikings' backups last season. He ranked a lowly 50th among WRs in yards per route run (1.63) and he was 49th in first-read target share (19.5%). Can Sam Darnold support multiple fantasy options after Justin Jefferson?
47. In his last stint as a starter in the final six games of 2022, Darnold (7.1%) trailed only Josh Allen (7.6%) in Hero Throw Rate. These were extraordinary dime passes that maximized the play.
47b. Darnold’s accuracy wasn’t bad in 2021, either. He had the third-highest charted accurate throw rate (53%), trailing only Burrow (53.1%) and Goff (53.8%).
46. Don’t bail on Jefferson with Sam Darnold under center.
46b. After he came back from a midseason hamstring injury, Jefferson dropped a casual 30/476/2 receiving (on 44 targets) in four games with Nick Mullens last season.
46c. It’s a small sample size, but Jefferson’s efficiency did not dip at all. He averaged 3.03 YPRR (157 routes) with Mullens and 2.99 YPPR (191 routes) with Kirk Cousins.
46d. This is after Jefferson ripped up the league for 128/1809/8 receiving (2.77 YPRR) the year prior.
46e. The Vikings' passing volume will dip with Darnold under center, but this should still be a pass-first offense. Minnesota led the NFL in passing yards (4,700) last season, and that was with Cousins missing half of the year. In fact, they were still 5th in pass rate over expectation (+4.3%) and 10th in pass rate when the game was within a score (63%) from Weeks 9-18 last season without Cousins. HC Kevin O’Connell loves to sling it.
46f. Jordan Addison fell from 15.8 PPR FPG in eight starts with Cousins to just 10.5 FPG with the Vikings' backups last season. He ranked a lowly 50th among WRs in yards per route run (1.63) and he was 49th in first-read target share (19.5%). Can Sam Darnold support multiple fantasy options after Justin Jefferson?
47. In his last stint as a starter in the final six games of 2022, Darnold (7.1%) trailed only Josh Allen (7.6%) in Hero Throw Rate. These were extraordinary dime passes that maximized the play.
47b. Darnold’s accuracy wasn’t bad in 2021, either. He had the third-highest charted accurate throw rate (53%), trailing only Burrow (53.1%) and Goff (53.8%).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:09 pm to CBandits82
New England Patriots
47. The Patriots were just as inept as the Panthers, with those two teams circling the drain together for the league’s worst scoring output (13.9 PPG). The only way to go is up. By implied totals, we should expect the Patriots scoring to progress by 5.0 points per game.
47b. A total of 30 RBs averaged more carries inside-the-10 per game (1.0) than Rhamondre Stevenson did last season.
47c. Rhamondre will still have a pretty high floor thanks to his involvement and ability in the passing game. Over the last two combined seasons, Stevenson is the RB9 in snaps (65%) and RB6 in targets per game (4.8). In fact, only Ekeler (201), McCaffrey (191), and Kamara (163) have earned more total targets than Stevenson (139) in this span.
47d. The good news? New England has one of the softest slates by strength of schedule for QBs (sixth-easiest) and RBs (easiest).
47e. The (way worse) news? Their offensive line is the worst in the league. And it’s not close, per former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto.
47. The Patriots were just as inept as the Panthers, with those two teams circling the drain together for the league’s worst scoring output (13.9 PPG). The only way to go is up. By implied totals, we should expect the Patriots scoring to progress by 5.0 points per game.
47b. A total of 30 RBs averaged more carries inside-the-10 per game (1.0) than Rhamondre Stevenson did last season.
47c. Rhamondre will still have a pretty high floor thanks to his involvement and ability in the passing game. Over the last two combined seasons, Stevenson is the RB9 in snaps (65%) and RB6 in targets per game (4.8). In fact, only Ekeler (201), McCaffrey (191), and Kamara (163) have earned more total targets than Stevenson (139) in this span.
47d. The good news? New England has one of the softest slates by strength of schedule for QBs (sixth-easiest) and RBs (easiest).
47e. The (way worse) news? Their offensive line is the worst in the league. And it’s not close, per former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:09 pm to CBandits82
New Orleans Saints
48. After Michael Thomas was done for the season with an injury in Week 10, Olave quietly closed out the final seven games of his season by averaging 16.1 PPR FPG. This would have made him the WR15 over the full season if he sustained that pace – just behind Deebo Samuel.
48b. Despite a concussion and a nagging ankle sprain, Olave stepped up and still shredded defenses to the tune of 2.86 yards per route run (WR6) in this stretch without Thomas.
48c. For reference, Olave was just a solid fantasy WR3 in Weeks 1-9 with Thomas, as he averaged 1.76 YPRR (WR43), and he put up 13.1 FPG (WR28).
49. Only the Steelers (15.5%) used play-action less often than the Saints (15.7%) last season.
49b. Olave has absolutely wrecked defenses when the Saints use play-action. This is where he ranked among receivers in yards per route run off of play-action:
2022 – 9th-of-90 WR (3.70 YPRR)
2023 – 13th-of-85 WR (3.54)
50. Alvin Kamara notched his fifth top-10 finish in PPR points per game among RBs last season (RB5 | 17.5 FPG).
50b. He started to show his age, though. He tied with Rachaad White and Javonte Williams as the RB38 in missed tackles forced per touch (0.14). At least Williams blew out his knee the season before and has that to blame.
50c. Only Zach Charbonnet, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Kareem Hunt forced fewer missed tackles per touch than Kamara last season.
50d. Over the last two seasons, Kamara has 28 carries (5 TDs) inside-the-10 over the last two seasons while TE/QB/RB/WR Taysom Hill (26 carries – 7 TDs) is turning into a legitimate goal-line back. This only includes the 26 games where both players were active.
48. After Michael Thomas was done for the season with an injury in Week 10, Olave quietly closed out the final seven games of his season by averaging 16.1 PPR FPG. This would have made him the WR15 over the full season if he sustained that pace – just behind Deebo Samuel.
48b. Despite a concussion and a nagging ankle sprain, Olave stepped up and still shredded defenses to the tune of 2.86 yards per route run (WR6) in this stretch without Thomas.
48c. For reference, Olave was just a solid fantasy WR3 in Weeks 1-9 with Thomas, as he averaged 1.76 YPRR (WR43), and he put up 13.1 FPG (WR28).
49. Only the Steelers (15.5%) used play-action less often than the Saints (15.7%) last season.
49b. Olave has absolutely wrecked defenses when the Saints use play-action. This is where he ranked among receivers in yards per route run off of play-action:
2022 – 9th-of-90 WR (3.70 YPRR)
2023 – 13th-of-85 WR (3.54)
50. Alvin Kamara notched his fifth top-10 finish in PPR points per game among RBs last season (RB5 | 17.5 FPG).
50b. He started to show his age, though. He tied with Rachaad White and Javonte Williams as the RB38 in missed tackles forced per touch (0.14). At least Williams blew out his knee the season before and has that to blame.
50c. Only Zach Charbonnet, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Kareem Hunt forced fewer missed tackles per touch than Kamara last season.
50d. Over the last two seasons, Kamara has 28 carries (5 TDs) inside-the-10 over the last two seasons while TE/QB/RB/WR Taysom Hill (26 carries – 7 TDs) is turning into a legitimate goal-line back. This only includes the 26 games where both players were active.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:10 pm to CBandits82
New York Giants
50. Daniel Jones is averaging 208.5 passing yards per game with a 3.3% TD rate since he entered the league in 2019. He’s never had a single season above the league average in yards per pass attempt (7.0). His career-high was 6.8 YPA (24th-best) in 2022.
50b. For reference, Jones is averaging fewer yards per game than backups Andy Dalton (212.5) and Mac Jones (212.3) in this span.
50c. According to work done by excellent analyst Dwain McFarland, QBs that average between 200 to 224 passing yards per game support top-24 fantasy wide receivers just 20% of the time.
50d. Since 2019, Daniel Jones’ 3.3% passing touchdown rate ranks 39th-of-40 QBs.
50e. The only QB with a worse TD rate in this span? Yeah, that’d be Zach Wilson (2.3%).
50f. That’s not great for Malik Nabers’ overall outlook.
51. With the addition of Nabers, the hope is that Jones takes a big step forward. The Giants desperately need Nabers to stretch the field. Daniel Jones threw deep — over 20 yards in air — on a league-low 6.9% of his pass attempts last season. That figure has to rise considerably if we’re going to get a solid ceiling out of Nabers in fantasy.
50. Daniel Jones is averaging 208.5 passing yards per game with a 3.3% TD rate since he entered the league in 2019. He’s never had a single season above the league average in yards per pass attempt (7.0). His career-high was 6.8 YPA (24th-best) in 2022.
50b. For reference, Jones is averaging fewer yards per game than backups Andy Dalton (212.5) and Mac Jones (212.3) in this span.
50c. According to work done by excellent analyst Dwain McFarland, QBs that average between 200 to 224 passing yards per game support top-24 fantasy wide receivers just 20% of the time.
50d. Since 2019, Daniel Jones’ 3.3% passing touchdown rate ranks 39th-of-40 QBs.
50e. The only QB with a worse TD rate in this span? Yeah, that’d be Zach Wilson (2.3%).
50f. That’s not great for Malik Nabers’ overall outlook.
51. With the addition of Nabers, the hope is that Jones takes a big step forward. The Giants desperately need Nabers to stretch the field. Daniel Jones threw deep — over 20 yards in air — on a league-low 6.9% of his pass attempts last season. That figure has to rise considerably if we’re going to get a solid ceiling out of Nabers in fantasy.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:11 pm to CBandits82
New York Jets
52. Breece Hall was the RB1 in fantasy when the Jets won (23.7 FPG in seven victories), making him one of the most game-script-dependent running backs last season.
52b. For reference, Christian McCaffrey (22.4 FPG) finished as the RB1 by 2.6 FPG over RB2 Kyren Williams (19.8).
52c. Hall was basically a replacement-level FLEX player in losses (8.7 FPG – RB38). Well, things are about to get a whole lot better.
52d. By the DraftKings Sportsbook lookahead lines, the Jets are favored in 13 games this year, and that’s tied with the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bengals for third-most.
52e. In fact, they’re favored by three or more points in 10 games total. That’s the fourth-most games favored by at least a field goal and behind only the Chiefs (14), 49ers (12), and Ravens (11).
53. Hall and Bijan Robinson are two of 8 running backs to have at least 200 carries and earn at least 80 targets at 22 years old or younger. The other six running backs to meet this mark at 22 years old or younger? Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Edgerrin James (since 1992).
53b. Every single one of those RBs – Barkley, CMC, Bell, McCoy, and Rice – all went on to have at least one season where they finished as the fantasy RB1 overall. Every one of those RBs has multiple top-3 finishes. Edgerrin James was the only one who didn’t finish as the overall RB1, and that was only because Marshall Faulk was lighting up the league in 1999-2000. James was the RB2 in back-to-back seasons in this span.
54. Garrett Wilson has scored just seven touchdowns across 34 career games, and that has resulted in mediocre WR36 and WR31 finishes in fantasy points per game.
54b. The volume has been strong – Wilson was WR9 in target share (27.1%) last season and WR22 two years ago (22.5%). We just need some scores.
54c. Wilson has scored a TD on just 2.2% of his career targets. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers’ worst career touchdown rate in a single season is 4.2%. Rodgers' career TD rate is 6.2%.
54d. It’d be pretty bullish to expect Rodgers to match his elite career 6% touchdown rate as a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. However, if Wilson just had Rodgers playing at his “worst” season (4.2%) over the last two years, he’d have somewhere between 13-14 TDs. Again, he’s actually scored just seven.
54e. Only four wide receivers in history have earned at least 140 targets in back-to-back seasons at 23 years old or younger – Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, and Wilson.
54f. In his last full season as a starter, Aaron Rodgers was third in Hero Throw Rate (6.5%). These were extraordinary dime passes that maximized the play.
54g. In 2021, no quarterback had more Hero Throws than Rodgers (8.5%). This led Joe Burrow (7.9%) and Kyler Murray (7.7%) in that season.
52. Breece Hall was the RB1 in fantasy when the Jets won (23.7 FPG in seven victories), making him one of the most game-script-dependent running backs last season.
52b. For reference, Christian McCaffrey (22.4 FPG) finished as the RB1 by 2.6 FPG over RB2 Kyren Williams (19.8).
52c. Hall was basically a replacement-level FLEX player in losses (8.7 FPG – RB38). Well, things are about to get a whole lot better.
52d. By the DraftKings Sportsbook lookahead lines, the Jets are favored in 13 games this year, and that’s tied with the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bengals for third-most.
52e. In fact, they’re favored by three or more points in 10 games total. That’s the fourth-most games favored by at least a field goal and behind only the Chiefs (14), 49ers (12), and Ravens (11).
53. Hall and Bijan Robinson are two of 8 running backs to have at least 200 carries and earn at least 80 targets at 22 years old or younger. The other six running backs to meet this mark at 22 years old or younger? Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Edgerrin James (since 1992).
53b. Every single one of those RBs – Barkley, CMC, Bell, McCoy, and Rice – all went on to have at least one season where they finished as the fantasy RB1 overall. Every one of those RBs has multiple top-3 finishes. Edgerrin James was the only one who didn’t finish as the overall RB1, and that was only because Marshall Faulk was lighting up the league in 1999-2000. James was the RB2 in back-to-back seasons in this span.
54. Garrett Wilson has scored just seven touchdowns across 34 career games, and that has resulted in mediocre WR36 and WR31 finishes in fantasy points per game.
54b. The volume has been strong – Wilson was WR9 in target share (27.1%) last season and WR22 two years ago (22.5%). We just need some scores.
54c. Wilson has scored a TD on just 2.2% of his career targets. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers’ worst career touchdown rate in a single season is 4.2%. Rodgers' career TD rate is 6.2%.
54d. It’d be pretty bullish to expect Rodgers to match his elite career 6% touchdown rate as a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. However, if Wilson just had Rodgers playing at his “worst” season (4.2%) over the last two years, he’d have somewhere between 13-14 TDs. Again, he’s actually scored just seven.
54e. Only four wide receivers in history have earned at least 140 targets in back-to-back seasons at 23 years old or younger – Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, and Wilson.
54f. In his last full season as a starter, Aaron Rodgers was third in Hero Throw Rate (6.5%). These were extraordinary dime passes that maximized the play.
54g. In 2021, no quarterback had more Hero Throws than Rodgers (8.5%). This led Joe Burrow (7.9%) and Kyler Murray (7.7%) in that season.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:13 pm to CBandits82
Philadelphia Eagles
55. A.J. Brown already tallied up 1,005 receiving yards in nine games before the Eagles bye last season. In Weeks 1-10, Brown’s 22.6 PPR points per game ranked WR3 and trailed only Tyreek Hill (25.0) and Keenan Allen (22.8).
55b. Then the wheels fell off. Brown averaged a meager 56.4 yards per game over his final eight contests. He dropped all the way to WR38 in FPG in Weeks 11-18.
56. By the end of the year, the Eagles were just a stale, predictable offense. Their old staff used motion before or during the snap on just 26% of their pass plays (30th). Motion helps receivers get leverage on cornerbacks faster, and the Eagles' receivers will benefit greatly from OC Kellen Moore simply putting them in more advantageous positions.
56b. The Chargers (under OC Moore) used receiver motion before or during the snap on 58% of their pass plays last season (third-most).
56c. All wide receivers across the league averaged 1.67 yards per route run when motion was used before or during the snap last season. YPRR dips to 1.53 without any type of motion during the pass play.
57. DeVonta Smith ranks WR23 in targets (7.5), WR15 in receptions (5.3), WR19 in receiving yards (68.5), and WR16 in PPR points (14.6) on a per-game basis since the beginning of 2022.
57b. His aggregate ADP has slipped to WR24. He’s a phenomenal value.
58. Here are Saquon Barkley’s figures in yards after contact and missed tackles forced per carry over the last three seasons, according to FP Data. That’s three straight seasons without ranking top-15 in yards after contact or missed tackles forced:
2021 – 2.62 YAC per carry (26th-of-42 RBs) / 0.15 MTF per carry (31st)
2022 – 2.75 YAC (24th-of-37 RBs) / 0.20 MTF (16th)
2023 – 2.66 YAC (16th-of-41 RBs) / 0.19 MTF (22nd)
58b. The good news? This is a huge upgrade in his offensive environment.
58c. Over the last three seasons, Philadelphia has finished 2nd (2.17), 1st (2.46), and 1st (2.26) in adjusted yards before contact per carry. Importantly, this metric takes out non-designed QB runs – like scrambles and kneeldowns.
58d. How valuable can this bell cow role be with Hurts at QB? That’s the big question here. Hurts steals touchdowns and doesn’t throw to his running backs often. Over the last three years, Eagles RBs have ranked 24th (2021), 31st (2022), and 16th (2023) in receptions.
59. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has scored 25 TDs on 33 carries inside-the-5 over the last two seasons. That’s an insane 75.6% scoring rate.
59b. Barkley will still get his goal-line carries, but it’s hard to stop The Push. Hurts saw more carries than D’Andre Swift inside the five-yard line last year (16 to 14).
55. A.J. Brown already tallied up 1,005 receiving yards in nine games before the Eagles bye last season. In Weeks 1-10, Brown’s 22.6 PPR points per game ranked WR3 and trailed only Tyreek Hill (25.0) and Keenan Allen (22.8).
55b. Then the wheels fell off. Brown averaged a meager 56.4 yards per game over his final eight contests. He dropped all the way to WR38 in FPG in Weeks 11-18.
56. By the end of the year, the Eagles were just a stale, predictable offense. Their old staff used motion before or during the snap on just 26% of their pass plays (30th). Motion helps receivers get leverage on cornerbacks faster, and the Eagles' receivers will benefit greatly from OC Kellen Moore simply putting them in more advantageous positions.
56b. The Chargers (under OC Moore) used receiver motion before or during the snap on 58% of their pass plays last season (third-most).
56c. All wide receivers across the league averaged 1.67 yards per route run when motion was used before or during the snap last season. YPRR dips to 1.53 without any type of motion during the pass play.
57. DeVonta Smith ranks WR23 in targets (7.5), WR15 in receptions (5.3), WR19 in receiving yards (68.5), and WR16 in PPR points (14.6) on a per-game basis since the beginning of 2022.
57b. His aggregate ADP has slipped to WR24. He’s a phenomenal value.
58. Here are Saquon Barkley’s figures in yards after contact and missed tackles forced per carry over the last three seasons, according to FP Data. That’s three straight seasons without ranking top-15 in yards after contact or missed tackles forced:
2021 – 2.62 YAC per carry (26th-of-42 RBs) / 0.15 MTF per carry (31st)
2022 – 2.75 YAC (24th-of-37 RBs) / 0.20 MTF (16th)
2023 – 2.66 YAC (16th-of-41 RBs) / 0.19 MTF (22nd)
58b. The good news? This is a huge upgrade in his offensive environment.
58c. Over the last three seasons, Philadelphia has finished 2nd (2.17), 1st (2.46), and 1st (2.26) in adjusted yards before contact per carry. Importantly, this metric takes out non-designed QB runs – like scrambles and kneeldowns.
58d. How valuable can this bell cow role be with Hurts at QB? That’s the big question here. Hurts steals touchdowns and doesn’t throw to his running backs often. Over the last three years, Eagles RBs have ranked 24th (2021), 31st (2022), and 16th (2023) in receptions.
59. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has scored 25 TDs on 33 carries inside-the-5 over the last two seasons. That’s an insane 75.6% scoring rate.
59b. Barkley will still get his goal-line carries, but it’s hard to stop The Push. Hurts saw more carries than D’Andre Swift inside the five-yard line last year (16 to 14).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:13 pm to CBandits82
Pittsburgh Steelers
60. Justin Fields’ catchable throw rate was 32nd (71%) last season while Russell Wilson’s was significantly higher (77% | 13th).
60b. It can’t get much worse. George Pickens was merely the WR45 (!!) in catchable targets last season, with just 4.5 per game. For reference, this was the same amount of catchable targets that Tyler Boyd and Josh Downs saw.
61. Najee Harris ran hard last season, but he still got destroyed by Jaylen Warren in every single advanced rushing metric.
61b. Warren ranked second-best in yards after contact per carry (3.48), and he led all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.34).
61c. By comparison, Harris was 16th in after-contact yards (2.76 per carry) and 20th in MTF/Carry (0.21).
61d. Warren averaged 5.7 YPC when the Steelers went into 2-TE personnel last season. Harris averaged 2.9 YPC.
61e. Atlanta used 12-personnel (2-TE) on a league-high 42% of their plays last season under Steelers new OC Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh could be in a similar boat this season, given their WR depth chart.
61f. The Steelers' old staff gave Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons.
61g. By comparison, Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 while Tyler Allgeier handled 37% last year.
61h. Falcons RBs split similarly inside-the-10 two years ago as well in a three-way committee with Allgeier (45% of carries), Cordarrelle Patterson (32%), and Caleb Hundley (21%).
60. Justin Fields’ catchable throw rate was 32nd (71%) last season while Russell Wilson’s was significantly higher (77% | 13th).
60b. It can’t get much worse. George Pickens was merely the WR45 (!!) in catchable targets last season, with just 4.5 per game. For reference, this was the same amount of catchable targets that Tyler Boyd and Josh Downs saw.
61. Najee Harris ran hard last season, but he still got destroyed by Jaylen Warren in every single advanced rushing metric.
61b. Warren ranked second-best in yards after contact per carry (3.48), and he led all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.34).
61c. By comparison, Harris was 16th in after-contact yards (2.76 per carry) and 20th in MTF/Carry (0.21).
61d. Warren averaged 5.7 YPC when the Steelers went into 2-TE personnel last season. Harris averaged 2.9 YPC.
61e. Atlanta used 12-personnel (2-TE) on a league-high 42% of their plays last season under Steelers new OC Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh could be in a similar boat this season, given their WR depth chart.
61f. The Steelers' old staff gave Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons.
61g. By comparison, Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 while Tyler Allgeier handled 37% last year.
61h. Falcons RBs split similarly inside-the-10 two years ago as well in a three-way committee with Allgeier (45% of carries), Cordarrelle Patterson (32%), and Caleb Hundley (21%).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:14 pm to CBandits82
San Francisco 49ers
62. Over the last three combined seasons, Deebo Samuel is the WR10 in PPR fantasy points per game (17.1) – just edging out Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.9). Yet, he’s drafted at the end of the third round as the WR15 in positional ADP.
62b. Deebo is still somehow underrated in fantasy football. He’s finished top-15 among wide receivers in yards per route run in four of the last five seasons, with his down 2022 season being the lone exception.
63. Brandon Aiyuk (27.4%) led the 49ers in first-read target share ahead of Samuel (24.1%), Kittle (16.6%), and McCaffrey (13.7%) in their 16 games together (including playoffs).
63b. However, Deebo gets all of the layup-designed targets. Last season, Samuel got 21 designed targets (like screens). CMC got 20. Aiyuk didn’t get a single one.
63c. Deebo has 16 rushing TDs across 44 games over the last three seasons.
63d. Deebo just marginally out-scored Aiyuk on a per-game basis (16.2 to 15.7) last season.
63e. After an incredibly efficient 2023 campaign, Aiyuk will be hard-pressed to maintain a similar level. This stat from Mike Clay was one of my favorites this offseason:
62. Over the last three combined seasons, Deebo Samuel is the WR10 in PPR fantasy points per game (17.1) – just edging out Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.9). Yet, he’s drafted at the end of the third round as the WR15 in positional ADP.
62b. Deebo is still somehow underrated in fantasy football. He’s finished top-15 among wide receivers in yards per route run in four of the last five seasons, with his down 2022 season being the lone exception.
63. Brandon Aiyuk (27.4%) led the 49ers in first-read target share ahead of Samuel (24.1%), Kittle (16.6%), and McCaffrey (13.7%) in their 16 games together (including playoffs).
63b. However, Deebo gets all of the layup-designed targets. Last season, Samuel got 21 designed targets (like screens). CMC got 20. Aiyuk didn’t get a single one.
63c. Deebo has 16 rushing TDs across 44 games over the last three seasons.
63d. Deebo just marginally out-scored Aiyuk on a per-game basis (16.2 to 15.7) last season.
63e. After an incredibly efficient 2023 campaign, Aiyuk will be hard-pressed to maintain a similar level. This stat from Mike Clay was one of my favorites this offseason:
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:15 pm to CBandits82
Seattle Seahawks
64. Geno Smith is good! Get over it! Smith has made 36 starts for the Seahawks over the last three seasons, in which he’s QB13 by fantasy points per game. Additionally, Smith ranks 13th in yards per game, 14th in touchdown rate, and 10th-best in YPA among the 39 QBs with 500 pass attempts since 2021.
64b. I’m particularly interested to see how new OC Ryan Grubb opens up the Seahawks' passing attack.
64c. Geno has been terrific throwing deep – that’s all passes of 20+ yards in the air – over the last two seasons by FP Data’s completions over expected metric. He ranked fourth-best on deep throws two years ago (+12% CPOE) and seventh-best last season (+7.3% CPOE).
64d. The Washington Huskies led all of college football in deep passing yards last season under Grubb, per PFF College.
65. Yards Created readers know that Ken Walker has the talent to excel and we saw his tackle-breaking ability display to the highest degree last season.
65b. He finished second in missed tackles forced per touch (0.33) behind only Jaylen Warren (0.35), while Breece Hall (0.31) rounded out the top 3.
65c. In their 13 games together, Walker saw way more carries than Charbonnet (189 to 60) but the rookie played more in the passing game over Walker.
65d. Charbonnet ran 183 routes to Walker’s 152.
65e. However, the only running backs that saw a higher share of their team’s carries than Walker (66%) last season were Josh Jacobs (77%), Kyren Williams (69%), and Joe Mixon (67%).
65f. New OC Ryan Grubb hyped up Walker’s ability in the passing game, signaling that a larger role might be on tap. More passing game work is all that Walker needs to morph from a low-end RB2 to possibly a low-end RB1.
64. Geno Smith is good! Get over it! Smith has made 36 starts for the Seahawks over the last three seasons, in which he’s QB13 by fantasy points per game. Additionally, Smith ranks 13th in yards per game, 14th in touchdown rate, and 10th-best in YPA among the 39 QBs with 500 pass attempts since 2021.
64b. I’m particularly interested to see how new OC Ryan Grubb opens up the Seahawks' passing attack.
64c. Geno has been terrific throwing deep – that’s all passes of 20+ yards in the air – over the last two seasons by FP Data’s completions over expected metric. He ranked fourth-best on deep throws two years ago (+12% CPOE) and seventh-best last season (+7.3% CPOE).
64d. The Washington Huskies led all of college football in deep passing yards last season under Grubb, per PFF College.
65. Yards Created readers know that Ken Walker has the talent to excel and we saw his tackle-breaking ability display to the highest degree last season.
65b. He finished second in missed tackles forced per touch (0.33) behind only Jaylen Warren (0.35), while Breece Hall (0.31) rounded out the top 3.
65c. In their 13 games together, Walker saw way more carries than Charbonnet (189 to 60) but the rookie played more in the passing game over Walker.
65d. Charbonnet ran 183 routes to Walker’s 152.
65e. However, the only running backs that saw a higher share of their team’s carries than Walker (66%) last season were Josh Jacobs (77%), Kyren Williams (69%), and Joe Mixon (67%).
65f. New OC Ryan Grubb hyped up Walker’s ability in the passing game, signaling that a larger role might be on tap. More passing game work is all that Walker needs to morph from a low-end RB2 to possibly a low-end RB1.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:15 pm to CBandits82
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
66. Mike Evans has finished as a top-24 fantasy WR in 10 straight seasons. He has eight years inside of the top 15.
66b. Evans showed zero signs of drop-off last year, and he will be enshrined in Canton one day. However, we’d be foolish not to recognize the risk with Evans entering Year 10 at age 31. This is crucially the year that Ryan Heath identified when receivers really started to drop off their peak with 80.5% of their career “baseline” production.
66c. If he were to regress in a similar fashion, that would take Evans down from his usual WR1 levels to more of a mid-range WR2 this season.
66d. In 19 games, Evans slightly led Chris Godwin in first-read target share (29% to 27%).
67. Godwin will be back in his natural position full-time as the primary slot receiver for Tampa this season, according to both the Buccaneers WRs coach and HC Todd Bowles this offseason.
67b. He was more efficient in the slot last season, averaging 2.05 yards per route run inside vs. 1.77 when he lined up as a perimeter receiver.
67c. We saw him start to really trend up to close last season after he bottomed out for 0/0 receiving on three targets in Week 13. From that point on, Godwin led the team in targets over Evans (57 to 50), first reads (29% share to 25%), and yards per route run (2.29 to 1.88).
67d. Godwin vastly underperformed in the touchdown department last season after turning his 12 end-zone targets into just 2 TDs.
67e. By comparison, Evans scored 10 TDs on his 20 end-zone targets.
67f. Godwin posted a significantly better arse (separation score) in the slot (0.14 | WR27) as opposed to out wide (0.06 | WR61) last season.
67g. These are Godwin’s fantasy football finishes by season:
WR38 (2023) | 38% slot
WR20 (2022) | 73%
WR9 (2021) | 70%
WR15 (2020) | 57%
WR2 (2019) | 55%
WR36 (2018) | 30%
67h. That’s four straight seasons as a top-20 WR in points per game when a full-time slot WR. There should not be a 55-pick gap in ADP between Evans’ and Godwin’s price.
66. Mike Evans has finished as a top-24 fantasy WR in 10 straight seasons. He has eight years inside of the top 15.
66b. Evans showed zero signs of drop-off last year, and he will be enshrined in Canton one day. However, we’d be foolish not to recognize the risk with Evans entering Year 10 at age 31. This is crucially the year that Ryan Heath identified when receivers really started to drop off their peak with 80.5% of their career “baseline” production.
66c. If he were to regress in a similar fashion, that would take Evans down from his usual WR1 levels to more of a mid-range WR2 this season.
66d. In 19 games, Evans slightly led Chris Godwin in first-read target share (29% to 27%).
67. Godwin will be back in his natural position full-time as the primary slot receiver for Tampa this season, according to both the Buccaneers WRs coach and HC Todd Bowles this offseason.
67b. He was more efficient in the slot last season, averaging 2.05 yards per route run inside vs. 1.77 when he lined up as a perimeter receiver.
67c. We saw him start to really trend up to close last season after he bottomed out for 0/0 receiving on three targets in Week 13. From that point on, Godwin led the team in targets over Evans (57 to 50), first reads (29% share to 25%), and yards per route run (2.29 to 1.88).
67d. Godwin vastly underperformed in the touchdown department last season after turning his 12 end-zone targets into just 2 TDs.
67e. By comparison, Evans scored 10 TDs on his 20 end-zone targets.
67f. Godwin posted a significantly better arse (separation score) in the slot (0.14 | WR27) as opposed to out wide (0.06 | WR61) last season.
67g. These are Godwin’s fantasy football finishes by season:
WR38 (2023) | 38% slot
WR20 (2022) | 73%
WR9 (2021) | 70%
WR15 (2020) | 57%
WR2 (2019) | 55%
WR36 (2018) | 30%
67h. That’s four straight seasons as a top-20 WR in points per game when a full-time slot WR. There should not be a 55-pick gap in ADP between Evans’ and Godwin’s price.
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