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castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Warning: This contest allows up to 150 entries per person. Which means you'll have pros out there with optimal lineups.
Also this has a max number of entries at 12,500. So at $35 per,you're looking at $437,500 total. But the prize pool is only $370,000, so that's a 15% rake. Which is absolutely ridiculous


Ok, so why would you want to play? Because I think the format is fun.

Here are some basic rules, more details in link at the bottom

- you select 14 players.
1QB
2RB
2WR
1TE
4Flex
1DST
1K
- you pick before the playoffs start, and your lineup is locked in
- you can only pick ONE player from each team.
- the scoring is pretty normal, except TEs get 1.5 PPR.

Again, it's fun, but this is more on the gambling side than it is FF. Unless you throw up 150 lineups and optimize.
So treat it as such. There's also a higher stake $200/entry challenge with a 12% rake.

I would run it for the board manually, but I'm not sure what the best way would be for people to submit their lineups without me seeing it.

Link to Contest rules.


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
I have a $35 entry for myself, and I shared a $200 entry with friends. Could end up making another $200 lol.


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
I've got four $35 entries.

Took me forever to do my first lineup.


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Yeah, it took me some time to build it. I am going to look online for player projections. Let me know if you find any.

My friends and I building the $200 one (or maybe multiple entries) have been working on it some since Monday.

I know Establish The Run does them, but I don't have a subscription.


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
I built this spreadsheet to hemp me visualize things as I make my picks. Highlights the team you've selected and warns you if you mistakenly pick player from same team.


this site has a 3-part series article (link is part 2) that drives into some of the strategy and past years winning lineup builds.

I'll look for projections for this week. But what I've done so far is a very basic: fill a playoff bracket, and figure out the best lineup using PPG for that bracket. But that's not match-up adjusted.

Obviously all lottery for the most part, but there's obviously some simple things to avoid that increase your odds of winning.
This post was edited on 1/6 at 5:46 pm


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Yeah, I am building around a few ideas.

Try to get my two team fades eliminated immediately (most likely WFT and Bears, duh)

Try to have my kicker and D/ST to only play one game.

Get my QB to the Super Bowl for double points.

Avoid some chalk (Kelce, Kamara, Adams, Henry, Diontae, etc are among the chalkiest). Doesn’t mean I can’t play them, but I did some pivots.

Build our your path to the playoffs and predictions first and work from there.


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Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Thanks, I just read Part 2. (Read Part 1 the other day).

I’m not sure I fully agree with the QB logic, since the elite fantasy QB performance is getting pretty condensed at the top.

But it’s a very good and informative article, and it’s nice to see it confirm most of my thinking.
This post was edited on 1/7 at 12:03 am


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
quote:

I’m not sure I fully agree with the QB logic, since the elite fantasy QB performance is getting pretty condensed at the top.

Yeah that is one of the things that caught me off guard. But, the key here is that you're not just looking at how great the QB is scoring, but how well he scores over the next guy on his team. So from that standpoint, it makes sense. Though, they point out that Mahomes is on another planet and it doesn't apply to him....but with the 1.5ppr for TEs and Kelce this year. That'll be interesting to see.
And Hill would be a great contrariant play.

quote:

Try to get my two team fades eliminated immediately (most likely WFT and Bears, duh)

Try to have my kicker and D/ST to only play one game.


Yeah this one is quite challenging for me.

With 14 teams and only 12 spots you need to:

- leave two teams altogether
- DST and K from two more teams that have to lose

And what's killing me is that I don't personally see WFT, Rams, Browns as auto outs.

quote:

Avoid some chalk (Kelce, Kamara, Adams, Henry, Diontae, etc are among the chalkiest). Doesn’t mean I can’t play them, but I did some pivots.

Yeah for sure. You have to have some oddballs in every lineup. 1 or 2.
I'd guess Diontae Johnson and Kamara end up being the most owned players.


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
I think Kelce will be the most owned player in the field, since it’s TE premium and Waller and Kittle are not in the postseason.

I guess there’s Tonyan, Andrews, and Logan Thomas, but eh...

As for the QB, don’t forgot that it is a point for every 20 passing yards, not 25. Plus, the QB position in fantasy has changed the last two years. I would be reluctant to use older data with that. Remember, he said 2019 Mahomes is an outlier. Guys like him, Allen, Lamar, Wilson, etc can provide a massive edge, since the number of rushing tds by QB are way up.


hollywoodhead
Hawaii Fan
Member since Aug 2017
768 posts
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re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
do you accumulate the players points weekly or just once?

ex: If you pick Derrick Henry do you get to keep playing him as long as the Titans are in it or do you just get the points from 1 game?


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castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
You only set one lineup before the playoffs. And you accumulate points from that lineup throughout.


tigertown80
LSU Fan
tigerland
Member since Oct 2009
1280 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
We do a playoff like this through The Second Season site.


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Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
How are you looking through the first weekend? My $35 entry is in the 93rd percentile around 185 points, and I have seven offensive players + Rams D/ST left. Rams D/ST is not optimal, but still happy with where I am.

The two $200 split with friends are both are in the top 20% around 180 points.


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Nice! This is where I am at so far. My two fears (Sea, Cle) proved right. But I with only four lineups there's only so many scenarios you can consider. I have rams D/Gay in all but Chubb in only two.



Going to need Michael Thomas and Aaron Jones to lead their teams.


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Michael Thomas was a great pivot. I did it as well. My $35 has:

Rodgers
Chubb
Dobbins
DK (right choice over Lockett)
MT (risky, but necessary pivot with Kamara)
AJ Brown (pounded the table to fade Henry)
Diontae (Juju pivot turned out to be the move)
Diggs
Godwin (those drops hurt)
Kelce
Rodrigo
Rams D/ST

I guess I could have gone more contrarian with a couple WR, but I faded the top three most owned.


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
And if you haven’t seen ownership percentages yet, @fantasymojo has them on twitter.


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
Thanks. I'm playing another two lineups in the divisional challenge this week, so that's extremely helpful.

Very surprised by the ownership of Mahomes. I knew Kelce would outpace him, but I didn't expect it to be by that much


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
With TE premium and Super Bowl scoring doubled, it is almost impossible to not pick Kelce in my eyes. Thankfully, Tyreek is the ultimate lid lifter and Mahomes is the best we have seen to percent Kelce’s ownership from being maxed out. I figured it would be around 60-70%.

Each catch in the super bowl from him is worth 3 points


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
73598 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
No doubt. But when I was running lineup iterations, the Kelce lineups were not that crazy even with the premium and double.


Vicks Kennel Club
Chicago Cubs Fan
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
30102 posts

re: 2020/2021 Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35
I just couldn’t find another TE I liked enough. I wanted my QB and TE to be in the Super Bowl (Rodgers and Kelce).

If there wasn’t such an outlier TE in the playoffs, then I just would have targeted QB and WR.


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