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re: #1 pick in FF this year

Posted on 7/14/15 at 8:27 am to
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
54202 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 8:27 am to
Me either. Out of him, Charles and Bell (what I think will be the most popular 1-3) I think AP carries the least risk.

I pick third and my top 4 is AP, Bell, Charles and Lacy.
Posted by DukeSilver
Member since Jan 2014
2729 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 8:38 am to
quote:

I pick third and my top 4 is AP, Bell, Charles and Lacy.
I agree with you're top 4, although I'm still not sure if I'll move Bell to 4th since he's missing 3 games.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28600 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 9:28 am to
quote:

I'm still not sure if I'll move Bell to 4th since he's missing 3 games.

It's not how they start the season for you, it's how they finish. Ex. OBJ
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
158835 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 9:42 am to
he's really going to miss close to a quarter of your season with the bye factored in.

just depends on how many your league allows into the playoffs. Can you afford the slow start you're likely going to have until his return? If only 4 of 12 get in, well your margin for error is pretty slim.

You'll also have to likely grab Deangelo a little earlier than you'd like because he's of more value to you as a bell owner.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28600 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:06 am to
quote:

Can you afford the slow start you're likely going to have until his return?

Well if you draft accordingly you shouldn't have a problem. One draft pick shouldn't cost you 4 games to start the fantasy season.
Posted by DukeSilver
Member since Jan 2014
2729 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:31 am to
You're first round pick missing a quarter of the season is nothing to scoff at. Can you overcome it and it not be a problem? Sure. But thats no guarantee.

And I'm not saying I wouldn't draft him, but when Peterson, Charles, and Lacy are there, hell even CJ, Foster and Forte, you have to at least consider it.
This post was edited on 7/14/15 at 10:40 am
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
158835 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 11:34 am to
it may or may not, but those first 4 weeks you're facing up against everyone's optimal roster since there are no byes then and you're without your best player. Its not a lock you lose but you can't deny you're at a disadvantage there.

I'm simply playing devil's advocate to those that say you take Bell #1-2 no questions asked. You're taking on some risk there.
This post was edited on 7/14/15 at 11:35 am
Posted by DukeSilver
Member since Jan 2014
2729 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 11:37 am to
I'm agreeing with you.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
158835 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

(Posted on 7/14/15 at 11:34 am to tzimme4)
Posted by Zoltan
NOLA
Member since May 2010
1395 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

it may or may not, but those first 4 weeks you're facing up against everyone's optimal roster since there are no byes then and you're without your best player. Its not a lock you lose but you can't deny you're at a disadvantage there.


Most certainly. Not to mention the fact that unless you are drafting Deangelo, you're plugging someone else in that is the third RB you've drafted for 4 weeks to start. Doesn't mean that you can't win, but if you just wanted to go by production of an average RB1 to average RB3, you're probably looking at a 7-9 point average decline per game.
Posted by wrlakers
Member since Sep 2007
5748 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

#1 pick in FF this year


I agree that it should not be Bell, but I think Bell is a first-rounder even with the suspension.

If I get a late first round pick, I might snag him and then grab Williams late.
quote:

It looks like DeAngelo Williams will be the guy starting in his place and then backing him up, so snagging Williams with a pick in Round 9 or 10 should save you a headache.


Bell was on my 2014 team a consistent bright spot every week--so maybe I'm biased by recent experience.
Posted by OneMoreTime
Florida Gulf Coast Fan
Member since Dec 2008
61837 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 1:18 pm to
I had bell on a team last year as well and I rode him to a championship. He was fun to watch week in and week out. I really don't know where to place bell yet. He looked so damn good last year that I'd think long and hard about taking him #1 even with the suspension.
Posted by 68wDoc68w
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2014
1869 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 1:27 pm to
I know everyone is high on lacy but do ysll really think he is the #1 player this year.

I feel safer picking Peterson, Charles, or lynch



and I got nothing but hate last year about lynch and all he did was go off
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
54202 posts
Posted on 7/14/15 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

do ysll really think he is the #1 player this year


No. I think AP is.
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