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1
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:47 pm to Canada_Baw
Thats +10R from 2020.
IF EVER TOU CARED VOTE AFTER WORK. Keep it going
IF EVER TOU CARED VOTE AFTER WORK. Keep it going
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:48 pm to 1putt
quote:
The data geek who posted this says it can be used to extrapolate if Trump wins or not.
20% or more means landslide.Below 20% we're in a fight. 15% or lower, we're in trouble.
The theory is actually 20% - Trump has it, 15% - close, below 10- Kamala
Depending on whether the Republicans start voting after work, it is tracking at 15-18
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:48 pm to 1putt
The difference between 18% and 14% is everything. 20% is a red wave. Every percentage point higher, goes the theory, is significant across the contested states .15% is oh shite.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:50 pm to Lsupimp
Yep. >20% and you are looking at NH, VA and MN going red.
15-20% and you are looking at a solid Trump victory - 6 of 7 battlegrounds going red.
10-15% and its going to be a fight in the battlegrounds
Below 10% and Kamala has it, possibly sweeping the battlegrounds.
Its currently at 18.81%
15-20% and you are looking at a solid Trump victory - 6 of 7 battlegrounds going red.
10-15% and its going to be a fight in the battlegrounds
Below 10% and Kamala has it, possibly sweeping the battlegrounds.
Its currently at 18.81%
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:51 pm to Golgi Apparatus
quote:
Meh it’s looking like it’ll be close to 15 if the bleed continues.
I figured it would dip (from 21%) throughout the day. A lot of older people and people who actually have to work today voted early and before work. The government employees and people like teachers, who have the day off, didn't have to vote before work. I think you are going to see the numbers inch back up starting about 5:00 pm EST.
Then you also have to remember the western part of the panhandle (CST) is an hour behind the majority of the state. It is both deep red and polls will stay open an hour later.
I remember in 2016 MANY of the early eyes were on Florida as the first big swing state to close. It was close, but Dems were feeling good....then came a big chunk (% wise) of Trump votes after the CT counties closed. That effectively ended the speculation in Florida and set off the first big warning sings for the Dems/media
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