re: 3-8 Nebraska is 3.5 pt favorite over #17 9-2 Iowa?

Posted on 11/22/21 at 1:22 pm to VADawg

Posted by nvasil1

Hellinois

Member since Oct 2009

15937 posts

Posted on 11/22/21 at 1:22 pm to VADawg

quote:
These teams are very evenly matched but Iowa had a ridiculous, unsustainable turnover margin early in the season that has started to correct itself as the season has gone along.

This is a huge point. I think they're still top 5 in that stat, even with the natural correction. Meanwhile, Nebraska is ranked in the 90s in regards to turnover margin. Iowa is also one of the least penalized teams in the nation.

I think Nebraska is probably the more talented team, but I wouldn't put it past them to find a new and unusual way to gag away a close game.

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Posted by VADawg

Wherever

Member since Nov 2011

45111 posts

Posted on 11/22/21 at 1:49 pm to nvasil1

quote:
This is a huge point. I think they're still top 5 in that stat, even with the natural correction. Meanwhile, Nebraska is ranked in the 90s in regards to turnover margin. Iowa is also one of the least penalized teams in the nation.

Through their first five games (through the Maryland game), they were an incredible +12 in turnovers and had a +108 point differential. In the six games since then (starting with the Penn State game), they're even in turnover margin and have a -10 point differential.

For reference, Georgia's turnover margin for the season is +2.

This post was edited on 11/22/21 at 1:51 pm

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Posted by kengel2

Team Gun

Member since Mar 2004

30939 posts

Posted on 11/22/21 at 1:53 pm to nvasil1

quote:
I think Nebraska is probably the more talented team, but I wouldn't put it past them to find a new and unusual way to gag away a close game.

Adrian Martinez isnt playing according to my nebraska family group text.

Logan Smothers will be in.

At least the 80% chance of Martinez choking is gone.