re: CFB Pick'em News: MasterofTigerBait's lead cut to one...dunkelman just one game back

Two weeks ago, I was five games back, in 3rd place...

I moved up to 2nd, 2 games back, when MasterofTigerBait had a bad week.

Then I had a bad week, and now I'm 5 games back again - but now that's TENTH place! The leaderboard has gotten crowded...

I've done some "analytics" - gone back and checked the Pick'Em games against the oddsmakers- Of the 98 games selected, the favorite has won 62 of them. So, the favorite wins right at 70% of the time over-all, but the Pick'Em games are a little tighter- 63.3%....

As I've said before, the game is won or lost in correctly picking upsets--- If someone had selected ALL favorites every week except for correctly picking ONE upset each week, that would be 70-28....(second place) - Correctly pick TWO per week and you're running away with it at 78-20 (seven games ahead of the current leader!)
So about 34% of the games are upsets- You're picking 12 games and you pick the right four upsets you're 12-0; pick the wrong 4 and you are 4-8....


So if you pick a handful of upsets and hit half of them, it's a wash and your winning % is no better than playing safe and picking all favorites.... I think we all tend to pick MORE than 30-35% as upsets, and if we can go better than 50/50, then you're near the top of the board...


The odds of "staying ahead of the oddsmakers" are pretty much stacked against everybody- but I guess that's what makes it fun to try!