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Started By
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CFB Week 5 Wager Thread: Knocked down to the mat 2x in Week 4.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:28 am
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:28 am
Week 4 Thread
5-9 in Week 4 with 3 blown covers in the 4th for me on La Tech, Memphis and Indiana, and nearly another on Boston College.
21-18 YTD
NFL ML parlay to the rescue for me this week!
WEEK 5
Tulsa -4
Iowa -3.5
Wake Forest -7
Syracuse +5
Pittsburgh -3.5
Kent St -16.5
Appalachian St -10.5
Tulane -3.5
Coast Carolina -34
Some later plays to come.
5-9 in Week 4 with 3 blown covers in the 4th for me on La Tech, Memphis and Indiana, and nearly another on Boston College.
21-18 YTD
NFL ML parlay to the rescue for me this week!
WEEK 5
Tulsa -4
Iowa -3.5
Wake Forest -7
Syracuse +5
Pittsburgh -3.5
Kent St -16.5
Appalachian St -10.5
Tulane -3.5
Coast Carolina -34
Some later plays to come.
This post was edited on 9/29/21 at 8:10 pm
14
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:34 am to Blutarsky
I will be on Wisconsin. They were about to choke out ND, gave up a kick return, then completely melted.
I am leaning ND against Cincinnati, but ND seems really banged up.
Oregon line appears to be a bit of a trap.
I want to take Arkansas and all those points. But, I am concerned about the QB getting dinged up last game.
I am leaning ND against Cincinnati, but ND seems really banged up.
Oregon line appears to be a bit of a trap.
I want to take Arkansas and all those points. But, I am concerned about the QB getting dinged up last game.
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 10:35 am
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:37 am to Blutarsky
Props to the OP for being honest about losses. I've always said you learn more from losses than wins and I can't stand people who only talk about their wins and ignore their losses or spin them or lie about them.
Finally had my first winning week of the season in Week 4 after a horrendous start. Me and others in the modeling community have had a hard time of it and we blame preseason estimates being so difficult to generate this year because of COVID year. With more data in that allows us to phase out the preseason estimates hopefully our models perform better.
Finally had my first winning week of the season in Week 4 after a horrendous start. Me and others in the modeling community have had a hard time of it and we blame preseason estimates being so difficult to generate this year because of COVID year. With more data in that allows us to phase out the preseason estimates hopefully our models perform better.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:42 am to goldennugget
Yeah, the Covid year along with craziness of the transfer portal can wreak havoc on any model.
I’m sure mine is affected as well.
Luckily I’m going to hedge on an NFL ML parlay tonight and end up exactly where I started this week $$ wise.
I’m sure mine is affected as well.
Luckily I’m going to hedge on an NFL ML parlay tonight and end up exactly where I started this week $$ wise.
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 10:44 am
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:43 am to Blutarsky
I'm going to monitor the Iowa/Maryland spread over the next day, but I may hit Maryland +3.5... Should have a pretty rocking crowd at night + Iowa hasn't played outside of the state yet. They have a very good defense, but their offense is one of the worst in the country.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:50 am to goldennugget
quote:
modeling community
Sounds like a passionate, fun group.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:51 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
I will be on Wisconsin. They were about to choke out ND, gave up a kick return, then completely melted.
Yeah, that KR from Chris Tyree absolutely changed the complexion of that game, especially since it was Wisconsin that went up 13-10 in Q4. Things spiraled from there.
I feel so, so bad for the Wisconsin defense - one of the best in the country, but they have to watch the offense sputter time-and-time again. For those keeping score at home, defense has allowed 35 points this season (11.6 per game) and offense/ST has allowed 28 between a KR TD and three pick 6s.
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 10:54 am
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:53 am to Blutarsky
ND +2.5 @ home vs Cincy seems way too fishy, but i took it anyway
LSU -3.5
Arky +18.5
LSU -3.5
Arky +18.5
Posted on 9/27/21 at 10:59 am to hubertcumberdale
Arkansas is +18.5 ... wow
Posted on 9/27/21 at 11:03 am to BobRoss
quote:
Arkansas is +18.5 ... wow
Yes, also seems fishy but had to jump on that
Posted on 9/27/21 at 11:07 am to hubertcumberdale
I remember a couple years ago Ohio state lost to Indiana and Michigan state beat a ranked Michigan in the same week. The next weekend it was Ohio state -14.5 vs Michigan State. Everyone and their mom took Michigan State….
<====== not this guy, one of my few wins that season. Ohio state won by like 40
Not saying Cincinnati and Georgia will win by 40, but those lines are super fishy for ND and Arkansas.
<====== not this guy, one of my few wins that season. Ohio state won by like 40
Not saying Cincinnati and Georgia will win by 40, but those lines are super fishy for ND and Arkansas.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 11:14 am to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Yes, also seems fishy but had to jump on that
Could be that KJ Jefferson's knee is not good. I'm staying away from this one until I see something solid on his injury.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 11:30 am to Fgiord
quote:
Could be that KJ Jefferson's knee is not good. I'm staying away from this one until I see something solid on his injury.
Arkansas fronts are too good imo to lay that many points bc KJ Jefferson may be out
Posted on 9/27/21 at 11:38 am to hubertcumberdale
9-2 this week after an absolute blood bath weeks 1 and 2. Still trying to get even
I like Texas -5 and Ole Miss +14.5.
I like Texas -5 and Ole Miss +14.5.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:52 pm to Blutarsky
Went 5-6-1 (17-12-1 YTD) last week with a 5 team underdog ML parlay save of Wake, ND, Baylor, NC St, and Arkansas.
Plays for Week 5:
Arkansas +18.5
Ole Miss +14.5
Kansas St. +10.5
Texas -4.5
Boston College +16
TCU/Texas o65.5
LSU -3
LSU/Auburn u56
Wake Forest -7
Ok St -3.5
Michigan +1
Michigan ML +105
Ark/UGA u48.5
Plays for Week 5:
Arkansas +18.5
Ole Miss +14.5
Kansas St. +10.5
Texas -4.5
Boston College +16
TCU/Texas o65.5
LSU -3
LSU/Auburn u56
Wake Forest -7
Ok St -3.5
Michigan +1
Michigan ML +105
Ark/UGA u48.5
This post was edited on 9/30/21 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:57 pm to tigers25
Georgia moved ahead of Alabama for the #1 spot in my own computer model and Arkansas is still ranked in the 30s.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:02 pm to Bunk Moreland
That fact that ND is a dog at home against Cincy tells me all I need to know. Bearcats by 10
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:05 pm to Tunica
ND will be a huge teaser play too, so i could definitely seeing Vegas deciding to have Cincinnati win by 10-13
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:13 pm to tigers25
I have Cincinnati winning by 1. They didn't look great against Murray State or Indiana. Living largely off reputation right now. It will be close.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:15 pm to tigers25
quote:
I remember a couple years ago Ohio state lost to Indiana and Michigan state beat a ranked Michigan in the same week.
A couple years ago? Indiana hasn't beaten the Buckeyes since 1988
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