re: Massive study: Fully vax are 13 times more likely to get infected than the Recovered

quote:

---

“The differences are huge,” says Thålin, although she cautions that the numbers for infections and other events analyzed for the comparisons were “small.” For instance, the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the same analysis was based on just 238 infections in the vaccinated population, less than 1.5% of the more than 16,000 people, versus 19 reinfections among a similar number of people who once had SARS-CoV-2.

---

It is not a surprise that natural immunity is superior to vaccinated immunity. But certainly vaccinated immunity is vastly superior in COVID prevention to not being vaccinated at all, and there is nothing in this study to dispute this point. One of the problems here is with odds for rare events. If vaccinated people have a breakthrough Covid case, say, 0.000008 percent of the time and those with natural immunities have a breakthrough case 0.000001 percent of the time, it is true that vaccinated people are eight times more likely to become infected with COVID than those previously infected with COVID. But this is based on such small probabilities that one cannot draw a conclusion that being vaccinated poses a serious level of danger. In this study the authors find that a very rare event (i.e., having a breakthrough case after being vaccinated) is more likely to occur than another very rare event (i.e., having a breakthrough case after being infected with COVID and developing natural immunity). But both of these rare events occurs with much, much less frequency than being unvaccinated and becoming infected with COVID.