re: Desantis just beat trump in Western conservative summit straw poll

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Agree with everything you said above.

My question is if Trump does run, how many people who didn’t vote for trump but voted R for other down ballot races would vote for him in 2024. I would expect him to gain some of those voters especially if the alternative is Kamala.

I’m of the belief though, if Biden is still alive and Trump announces he is running, that Biden will run again. I would be shocked if dems let a Trump vs Kamala matchup happen.

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My guess is not many, or at the very least not enough that are needed to win. There were approximately 5.5 million voters in 2016 who split the ticket (voted for 1 R) in at least 1 race down-ballot but didn't vote for Trump. In 2020 he was only able to shave off 500K of that 5.5 million.

2024 is also a more favorable Senate map for us. WV is certain to flip, and I think OH will as well because the state is rapidly shifting red and Sherrod Brown underperformed the D margin nation-wide in 2018. Run someone like Mary Taylor against him to get the suburban women vote and he's toast. 2018 was D+8 and he won by 6.8, underperforming by 1.2 points. MT also has a good shot of flipping. Tester underperformed D's nation-wide in 2018 by 4.5 points.