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re: Desantis just beat trump in Western conservative summit straw poll
Posted on 6/20/21 at 5:10 am to Jcorye1
Posted on 6/20/21 at 5:10 am to Jcorye1
sub white women is a rino rove fairy tale. They went overwhelmingly for Trump in a stolen election. Want Trump back now and DeSantis for 24. Trump may be too old in 24
This post was edited on 6/20/21 at 5:12 am
Posted on 6/20/21 at 7:21 pm to markinkaty
quote:
sub white women is a rino rove fairy tale. They went overwhelmingly for Trump in a stolen election. Want Trump back now and DeSantis for 24. Trump may be too old in 24
These suburban Republican voters exist.
For the second straight election, Trump underperformed the majority of down-ballot Republicans in the suburbs of nearly every state. These voters are Republican and Republican-leaning Independents that don't like Trump, which is why they've split tickets and allowed down-ballot Republicans to either outperform Trump state-wide or in their suburban districts.
In the Senate, Rubio/Portman/Isakson/McCain/Burr/Johnson/Ayotte all received more votes than Trump did in their respective states in 2016. Toomey outperformed Trump in the Philly suburbs. In 2020, Cornyn/Gardner/Tillis did better than Trump in the biggest counties. Cornyn received over 100K more votes than Trump did in just the 10 largest counties in TX alone. David Perdue received over 17K more votes than Trump in Cobb//DeKalb/Fulton/Gwinnett.
There were approximately 5.5 and 5 million voters who voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but didn't vote for Trump, in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
In WI, there were approximately 78K voters who voted for at least 1 Republican but didn't vote for Trump. In GA that number was between 120-130K. In AZ it was between 45-50K. In MI and PA it was over 150K. In a state he won, like TX, it was approximately 320K.
Considering that DeSantis does better than Trump with pretty much every demographic, especially women and suburban voters, you'll see a large swing in % and/or raw votes in the suburbs back to him in 2024, should he get the GOP nomination. In short, he won't leave anywhere close to as many votes out there as Trump did, particularly in the suburbs.
There are plenty of votes that ARE there. We just need someone who can appeal to these voters. Given the data that we have, DeSantis is that guy. If we want to fricking win, DeSantis is our guy. Everyone else can frick off and stay home.
This post was edited on 6/20/21 at 7:23 pm
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