quote:
Jon Ralston has all but called Nevada for Biden and he is as good as gold there. I'd love for Trump to win here but if Ralston is saying Trump won't win he almost certainly won't.

This guy tweets daily about how evil the Trump campaign is. I wouldn't put too much stock into his predictions.

His analysis is not impressive at all. It's always full of obvious mistakes and leaps of logic.

He fails to recognize that Election Day 2020 is not like all the others. It will be much heavier Republican than normal. He's obsessed with the term "Clark firewall", but he forgets that Republicans will likely win Clark among Election Day voters.

He does not recognize polling crosstabs showing R's will outnumber D's on Election Day by huge margins - and yet he touts polling crosstabs showing Trump's advantage with NV independents evaporating.

He's a cherry picker, a hack, and a fraud.

If Biden wins Nevada, it won't be for any of the reasons Ralston has written about.

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Posted by RidiculousHype

St. George, LA

Member since Sep 2007

10238 posts

Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:22 pm to RidiculousHype

More on Ralston while I'm on the subject.

He says "there just aren't enough votes left" for Republicans to catch up. Yet, the difference is 46,623 ballots with turnout at 66% Dem, 68% Rep so far.

Turnout in 2016 was 78% Dem, 83% Rep.

Nobody knows what the final turnout %s will be. But Rep turnout ticking up to 85% this time wouldn't be a shocker (they did it in 2012), and would be plenty of votes to catch up, unless Dems blow past their 2016 number.

Point is, nobody knows. But this talk of "not enough votes left" is nonsense.

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