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re: CNN says Joe Biden won the debate BIGLY over Donald Rump
Posted on 9/30/20 at 1:05 pm to The Boat
Posted on 9/30/20 at 1:05 pm to The Boat
Some observations about first debates from a polling expert:
TLDR Debates hardly move the needle, and 1st debates don't appear to matter at all.
quote:
Here are some other observations:
The first debate isn’t necessarily decisive. In 1976, Carter did poorly against Ford in their initial encounter, losing most of his big pre-debate polling lead. In 1984, Reagan’s meandering closing statement renewed doubts about his age, which he resolved humorously in the second debate (he was 73 at the time, younger than either Biden or Trump). And in 2012, Obama gave an unexpectedly lackluster initial performance against Mitt Romney, the result of overconfidence which he dispelled in their next encounter. Carter, Reagan and Obama all won.
TLDR Debates hardly move the needle, and 1st debates don't appear to matter at all.
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