re: Rush is explaining his off record conversation he had with a pollster right now.

quote:

---

A 11 vote swing in 4 years was reality, but a 14.5 swing is just completely out of the question?

---

YES. Completely so. At least for an incumbent with a 45% to 52% approval rate nationally. You are, in a way, comparing apples to oranges, in your analysis.
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by ~1.5%
- Trump won by 9.0% or 9.5%

That massive swing was due to Trump's appeal in the Rust Belt, more than anything else, including Hillary-hatred. But to think an incumbent with ~50% approval would swing by 14.5% to the negative is probably all but unheard of.

I'd even guess you couldn't find a state that swung against Jimmy Carter between '76 to '80 by over 13% (but I am not guaranteeing that one).

I'm sure Herbert Hoover would have fit that in 1932, but his approval numbers, whether they were polled or not in the Great Depression, were probably VERY low.