re: This nation is headed for a Divorce

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China can gain more influence over a nation where the bulk of the power is concentrated in a few spots (NYC, DC, Silicon Valley) than it would over a decentralized society. That's a fact.

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A decentralized society (which can be achieved by federalism) implies that there is still a unifying central government. A completely Balkanized nation would be subject to more foreign threats, and creates a particular security situation called the "security spiral," as states in an anarchic world (without a central authority) are only as safe as their neighbors allow them to be. Since states are self-interested, their self-interest is in their preservation, which leads to increased security spending, as well as the need for foreign alliances in order to alleviate those issues.

The shape of geopolitics will depend on what new arrangement is created, and who controls what. A new state with a nuclear arsenal immediately has more power than a larger state without one. Who controls the financial system, what currency is created, and the events preceding any dissolution are all relevant (among many more externalities).

We can look to two situations. First, we can look at the effect of Balkanization, where the Balkan states either became satellites for larger states, like Russia with Serbia and Turkey's attempts with Bosnia, entry points for foreign powers, like China's investment in the Western Balkans, or the states sought entry into larger conglomerations, like the EU (which sped up integration with Chinese investment). The security situation is still precarious, and there are many unresolved issues that will linger for a long time, harming the overall security situation, while limiting economic mobility.

The second situation is historical, with the seeds of German Romantic Nationalism planted during and in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, which result in the unification of German princely states in the 1870's, but not after an attempt at unification in 1848. The princely states were also weakened by larger imperial powers, and the aspirations of one of the princely states, Prussia.

Centralized states, especially with the progress of technology, are going to be even more ascendant, as India's economy is predicted to increase by at least 3 times by 2050, and Indian internal politics at the moment are attempting to reimagine the federal state that developed (after a massive degree of centralization from 1950 to 1990). Decentralized states could have, at one time, been ascendant, but unfortunately technological progress was used (for many reasons) to coalesce power instead of diffuse it.

But if you are talking about redefining the roles of the US government while embracing what amounts to a stronger federalism, I think we might be on board. If you are talking about dissolution, then there are multiple geopolitical factors that will come into play, from water rights to mineral rights to currency issues to nuclear arsenal issues to access to internal roads. None of the issues the country has will be solved by Balkanization, in my view.