re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?

Another way to look at it:

If your down 15 in the 4th your facing long odds no matter what - so no set of events makes you ‘likely’ to win.

You have to attempt at least 1 two point conversion.

If you save it for the end, you have to make it (acceptable failure rate = 0).

If you go for it early, the acceptable failure rate is a number higher than 0. It’s not much higher than zero, but it’s not zero. It does mean that your ensuing possession you’re in hurry up mode and wanting to score before the 2 minute warning and still hold onto a time out.

In another quirk, going for it early and missing is your best chance at winning in regulation since there is no playing for the tie at that point.