re: Most Likely Star to get traded

Jrue for McCollum makes more sense for the Blazers than Pels, especially now that the Pels have Ingram. The same hole that Portland would be hoping to fill by trading CJ for Jrue would open up on the Pels. As much as people understandably hate on Jrue for inconsistent and unclutch offense, he still averages a reasonably efficient 19-20 ppg for the Pels.

Even if the Pels get more ppg out of McCollum than Jrue

1) Who is CJ taking shots from, if anyone, to get those extra points? ie is it really a net gain in points on offense because he's more efficient than Jrue, or just because he takes 2 more shots per 36 minutes than Jrue? Look at the numbers, their efficiency isn't that far off from each other.

2) How many more points does CJ give up? When McCollum is On Court the Blazers DRtg is 113.6 when he's off, it's 111.4. So he makes the Blazers defense 2.2 points worse every 100 possesions.

Jrue improves the Pels defense 3.9 points per 100. Taking those stats at face value, going from Jrue to CJ makes your defense 6.1 points worse, so you need CJ to add a net gain to the offense of 6.1 points just to break even in a trade, which doesn't appear to be a reasonable expectation.

Obviously offensive and defensive impact isn't as simple as transferring numbers, and team building is chemistry, not algebra, but I think the numbers do show that people underestimate Jrue's contributions on offense and defense if they think CJ McCollum for Jrue solves more problems than it creates.

If you did do a McCollum for Jrue swap you would need stud starting defensive wing that could guard 1-4, an elite rim protector, and Zion to take a jump on defense, which he hopefully will.