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re: Am I the only one who thinks the market's reaction to the coronavirus outbreak is...
Posted on 1/31/20 at 4:37 pm to BamaAlum02
Posted on 1/31/20 at 4:37 pm to BamaAlum02
You posted:
My reply was meant to show the Fed's action reducing its repo balances was meant to maintain the overnight FF rate between the Fed's stated rate target of 1.5-1.75% and had nothing to do with "using" the virus news as cover for reducing repo transactions.
It's a mystery to me why you think the market dropped over 600 points today because of the Fed's repo operations when overnight interest rates have remained virtually unchanged for over a month.
If there were liquidity concerns causing the stock market to pull back then overnight rates would have reflected those concerns by increasing significantly which they haven't done.
Res ipsa loquitur.
quote:
The Fed is using the virus news as an excuse to pull back their cash floats
My reply was meant to show the Fed's action reducing its repo balances was meant to maintain the overnight FF rate between the Fed's stated rate target of 1.5-1.75% and had nothing to do with "using" the virus news as cover for reducing repo transactions.
It's a mystery to me why you think the market dropped over 600 points today because of the Fed's repo operations when overnight interest rates have remained virtually unchanged for over a month.
If there were liquidity concerns causing the stock market to pull back then overnight rates would have reflected those concerns by increasing significantly which they haven't done.
Res ipsa loquitur.
Posted on 2/1/20 at 9:36 am to LSURussian
You keep making this about interest rates and it is about actions of the Fed. The Fed is one of the largest influences on market valuations. I thought that was a pretty accepted principle. You can call it correlation, coincidence, causation or whatever else but generally when the Fed pulls back on repo positions the market reacts in a downturn and vice versa. So regardless of what happens with rates, if the Fed reduces their repo liquidity by 20%, the market is going to downturn. There are years of data to support this.
It was hyperbole on my part to say the virus has 0 impact. Of course it does, everything does because investing also has a psychological aspect that no amount of data can rationalize. So when there are factors like the Fed reducing repo operations, a virus scare, investors looking for a reason to pull profits then all those things snowball and you start to see consecutive days of downturns that maybe turns into a correction.
That is a lot of words on my part to say that I disagree with you that the market would ignore the Fed's actions on repo positions (especially when it is a significant change) just because the overnight rates have been consistent the last few months.
It was hyperbole on my part to say the virus has 0 impact. Of course it does, everything does because investing also has a psychological aspect that no amount of data can rationalize. So when there are factors like the Fed reducing repo operations, a virus scare, investors looking for a reason to pull profits then all those things snowball and you start to see consecutive days of downturns that maybe turns into a correction.
That is a lot of words on my part to say that I disagree with you that the market would ignore the Fed's actions on repo positions (especially when it is a significant change) just because the overnight rates have been consistent the last few months.
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