re: *’s sign stealing - by the numbers

Posted on 1/29/20 at 3:14 pm to BenDover

Posted by PrimeTime Money

Houston, Texas, USA

Member since Nov 2012

27349 posts

Posted on 1/29/20 at 3:14 pm to BenDover

quote:
Batting average isn't as great of an indicator as you're implying. In 2017, Marwin had 15 HRs at home, 8 on the road (highest HR total at home in his career). In 2017, Marwin had a .543 SLG% at Minute Maid. In 2016 that number was .413 and in 2018 .351.

You selectively picked the one stat that was higher at home than on the road.

His batting average, walks, strikeouts, on base percentage, OPS, were all higher on the road.

quote:
Marwin's .326 road BA in 2017 was heavily influenced by a .366 BABIP indicating, to an extent, how lucky he'd been when putting the ball in play. His career BABIP is .310.

So you're explanation is that he just got lucky?

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Posted by BenDover

Member since Jul 2010

5434 posts

Posted on 1/29/20 at 4:20 pm to PrimeTime Money

quote:
You selectively picked the one stat that was higher at home than on the road.

His batting average, walks, strikeouts, on base percentage, OPS, were all higher on the road.

I picked slugging stats because when you've been tipped off that a fastball, or offspeed pitch, is coming it's much easier to gear up to crush a pitch.

quote:
So you're explanation is that he just got lucky?

I said to an extent because well.. that's really what that stat implies. Or you can call it an anomaly, whatever you prefer. MLB average for BABIP in 2017 was .299.

In any event, Marwin's .366 BABIP answers your original question of

quote:
Look at this:

In 2017, Marwin’s batting average at home was .282

On the road it was .326

Marwin was hitting WAY better on the road than at home. Honestly, what is the explanation for that???

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