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re: CFB Betting Thread: W6
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Care to elaborate? Always interested in hearing about analytical models for football. Most systems I have heard of involve weighting different metrics based on the determined ranking of the opposing team.
Years of trial and error. Finally was able to create a system that I can rely on a few years ago and I have ridden with it with minor tweaks since. Had a rough start to this season but I've killed it the last 2 weeks to put me up by a decent amount.
I feel like too many people try to be too complex with their models. My model only uses 4 inputs. Used 3 inputs in 2017 and 2018 and added a 4th in the offseason. The key is you have to do your research and legwork to figure out which inputs truly matter. With that being said the inputs I use are rather complex statistics and aren't simple stats like "yards per game" or "rushing defense"
2
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:20 pm to The Funnie Five
quote:
I feel like too many people try to be too complex with their models. My model only uses 4 inputs. Used 3 inputs in 2017 and 2018 and added a 4th in the offseason.
I weight 6 more than others.
-Roster talent (heaviest)
-YPP for both units for both teams vs. each other
-PPP for both units for both teams vs. each other (points per play)
-Overall team QBR (I will adjust this to one QB if the starter has changed)
-Red Zone % for both units for both teams vs. each other
-3rd down % for both units for both teams vs. each other
ETA:
Also, weight each by SOS. So higher the SOS, the more weight your stats have.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 10/4/19 at 2:15 am to The Funnie Five
quote:
I feel like too many people try to be too complex with their models.
Remember when you said you laugh at ppl who look at history of conference games
Yet you have a system?
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