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Message
re: Tropical Storm Karen - Low End Gulf Threat
Posted on 9/23/19 at 10:37 pm to rt3
Posted on 9/23/19 at 10:37 pm to rt3
quote:
Levi put up a video tonight that made an interesting point
if Karen ends up a bit further west when the ridge builds in... it may be in a spot where the shear is less and the atmosphere more conducive to strengthening
Yea, or if the ridge builds in differently, or if Jerry is weaker/farther away, etc. My thinking hasn't really changed, let's wait and see if there is even a system for the ridge to turn westward.
1
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:16 pm to rds dc
After looking a little better today, likely from Jerry being void of deep convection, Karen is once again a mess with the MLC located on the north shore of PR with what appears to be the LLC racing off to the NE. In disorganized systems like this one there are usually multiple vorts rotating around a larger elongated circulation and it is possible that the storm spit one of those off the the NE and another one is tightening up under the deep convection near the MLC.
00z Early Cycle Tracks
Still a lot to be worked out but one good sign is that the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all keep Karen weak over the next 5 days.
00z Early Cycle Tracks
Still a lot to be worked out but one good sign is that the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all keep Karen weak over the next 5 days.
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