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re: Tropical Storm Karen - Low End Gulf Threat

Posted on 9/23/19 at 10:23 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19847 posts
Posted on 9/23/19 at 10:23 am to
Looking at the overnight guidance and the 00z Euro is a pretty big outlier (dashed line) but the NHC mentioned in the 11:00 am discussion that they are giving it some credit.



Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19847 posts
Posted on 9/23/19 at 10:01 pm to
NHC sticks with a slow strengthening once this gets north of the Islands, which goes against the latest Euro/GFS runs. A stronger system will better be able to fend off shear induced by the ridge to the north as the system makes the westward turn.

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