re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

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rds dc

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What happened to our cooler weather that was in the long term forecast for next weekend?

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NHC has upped 99L to 50% but the strength and track of 98L will play a role in what happens to 99L. As of now, the GFS is breaking off a couple of upper level lows that drop SW towards the Caribbean and eventually shear 99L to death.

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Not much has changed with this. It still looks like the most likely outcome is for this system to die as it interacts with the larger islands and gets sheared by an ULL dropping SW from the N. Atlantic.



The upper level feature to watch is currently near Bermuda and will be displaced SW ward, somewhat, by the outflow of 98L as it moves off the the NE. That ULL will continue to drift SW and eventually increase shear on Dorian and then eventually shear it out. This seems like the most likely solution, at this time.

However, the ensembles do highlight another possibility that could be problematic for the Gulf. Models struggle with the motion of ULL lows and if that ULL dropping SW moves more westward then it may not hinder Dorian. Even if that happens, Dorian still has to survive the Islands, which also seems unlikely. Now, if Dorian misses the ULL and moves just north of the islands then it will likely encounter an upper level pattern that will steer it towards the Gulf.

The Euro EPS highlights this as the a trough lifts out and the Atlantic ridge builds back in over the top of Dorian.



If the system were to miss the ULL and the Islands then it would be forced to ride the edge of the Atlantic ridge and probably be steered into the Gulf.



This is an unlikely scenario. However, there is enough ensemble support for this solution that there is a low end chance that Dorian ends up in the Gulf.

What’s the best site to see individual spaghetti models to compare against each other?