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re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:37 am to dcbl
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:37 am to dcbl
quote:
we could feasibly take Colorado as well
Doubtful, but perhaps it is close enough that Gardner can hold onto that Senate seat.
quote:
we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee
WI is looking better imho due to the f***up that their current Dem governor is and the state Supreme Court election upset.
MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.
PA is going to be a barnburner. Lots of new Trump voters in that state in 2016, and Philly had decent turnout in 2016 for Clinton.
1
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:41 am to GeneralLee
quote:Trump will gain with white working class voters, and I expect him to also have significant increases with black voters
MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.
so we probably WILL see a higher turnout in Detroit, but it won't be the typical 90/10 dem advantage
my predict8is that Trump takes at least 15% of the black vote and maybe even into the 20s
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