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re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets

Posted on 10/26/18 at 2:12 pm to
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 2:12 pm to
Not bad thinking. The high yield spread has jumped to over 3.6% recently, but that's nothing like the 7-8% spread that would indicate true stress, so you might be getting a good deal buying cheap.

I'm looking at more vanilla stuff at the moment. I've got a little bit of SPXU, but nothing significant, as I want to wait to make sure this isn't another feint like Jan/Feb.

I did make an investment in long-dated UST, thinking that the recent spike in yields will likely subside soon (although within a larger cycle of increasing rates, of course). If we are comparing to the Jan/Feb rate-spike-plus-stock-correction, recall that the dating for back then went something like this:

Fri., 1/26 = local stock peak at 2,872.87
Fri., 2/9 (T+14 days) = local stock trough at 2,532.69 (intraday)
Wed., 2/21 (T+26 days) = local 30-yr UST yield peak (with S&P 500 reaching an intraday high at 2,747.75, recouping over 1/2 the correction losses)

Then yields generally relaxed to lower levels through mid-to-late August. I think we might see something similar over the next 2-3 weeks, where the stock market recoups about half its earlier losses as bond yields crest... especially given the recent 3Q reading of only 1.6% growth in the PCE.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 3:24 pm to
This time around we saw a local peak in the 30-year at around 3.46% on Friday, 11/2, and a climb back to a local peak for the S&P 500 on Wednesday, 11/7, but nothing as pronounced as the unfolding from February this year, as interest rates have remained relatively elevated, as the global demand just hasn't been there to meet increasing supply.

I increased my holdings in SPXU a little bit, but I'm still waiting on a few rallies to transpire before going in more. I think we've now reached the stage where "buy on the dip" is near dead, and "sell on strength" is becoming the new buzz phrase.

For the earlier parts of this year, market selloffs have mostly been related to expected Fed hikes or trade spats, and trotting out Larry Kudlow to offer promising hints on China, or jawboning the Fed a little bit, has been enough to trigger rallies to change the market direction. I think we'll see a little bit more of that in coming weeks, but the effects will start to dwindle. Then it'll be time to prepare for much steeper losses.
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