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re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:51 pm to beauxroux
Posted on 1/29/18 at 1:51 pm to beauxroux
quote:
Odds of winning with 2 minutes left when up by 3--90%, which are the same odds when up by 7 points-- If you believe the chart.
That chart you're citing says specifically it doesn't take into consideration down and distance or field position, those are two huge factors that we've discussed extensively.
And that's been a main point that I and others have made. The odds of the opponent scoring on the ensuing drive are much higher with converting the FG than if you miss the TD.
Even if the probability of making the FG is slightly higher, that doesn't make up for the fact that the expected value for going for it at that distance is 6.9 points, and the expected value for the opponent scoring from inside their own 1 is less than 2 points. If you get more points for succeeding in a particular situation and give up fewer points for failing, then that's the right call.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 1:59 pm
2
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:28 pm to Goldrush25
I don't think your analysis is complete. Having any lead forces the opponent to score.
What's the EV difference between forcing a team to go, say, seventy yards to get within field goal range and win (if you fail to score) vs. forcing a team to go, say, forty-five yards to get within range of a field goal to tie or seventy-five for a win? (Assuming you can kick it deep enough to prevent a runback or at least stop the runback by the twenty-five.)
What's the EV difference between forcing a team to go, say, seventy yards to get within field goal range and win (if you fail to score) vs. forcing a team to go, say, forty-five yards to get within range of a field goal to tie or seventy-five for a win? (Assuming you can kick it deep enough to prevent a runback or at least stop the runback by the twenty-five.)
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:50 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
That chart you're citing says specifically it doesn't take into consideration down and distance or field position, those are two huge factors that we've discussed extensively.
Granted, there are limitations with the chart. Regardless, the odds of winning are the same whether up by 3 or 7 with 2 minutes left. So, one would have to surmise, if the distance to score would not have a dramatic influence. Otherwise the odds would not be identical.
This assumes the sample is sufficiently large enough to be statistically accurate.
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