re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?

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Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?

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Justify it? No one can.

You combine the odds of converting on that play, the odds of winning if you convert, the odds of giving up a score if you don't covert, then do the same for kicking the FG, going for the TD results in the higher expected value over a large sample size.

But Orgeron doesn't have an appreciation for predictive analysis or big data like a modern coach would. He seems to simply rely on anecdotal evidence provided by his own coaching career. He puts more value in remembering that one time he went for it years ago where he didn't convert and he lost the game.