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re: Often-touted Atlanta Fed GDPNow projection has some bad news for 3Q

Posted on 9/15/17 at 7:16 pm to
Posted by AuburnTigers
Member since Aug 2013
7443 posts
Posted on 9/15/17 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

How does a prediction go from 4% to 2.2% in a month?
2 Historical Hurricanes just hit the United States and devastated cities
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35255 posts
Posted on 9/15/17 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

2 Historical Hurricanes just hit the United States and devastated cities
Goldman-Sachs revised it down by about 0.8%: Goldman-Sachs estimates
quote:

"Given potentially sizeable growth effects from Harvey — and with Irma risks now moving to center stage — we are lowering our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.8pp to +2.0 percent," Goldman wrote. "However, we expect this weakness to reverse over the subsequent three quarters, more than recouping the lost output."
So I think the extent of the Atlanta Fed's drop is more to do with an overly optimistic initial estimate.
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