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re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)

Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:57 am to
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
111707 posts
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:57 am to
quote:

I dont buy that the odds don't change

Tell me where this is incorrect.

3 options, you choose door 1 each time, you switch every time:

1. Car is behind door 1, you switch you lose

2. Car is behind door 2, you switch you win

3. Car is behind door 3, you switch you win
Posted by TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
7305 posts
Posted on 8/12/17 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Tell me where this is incorrect. 3 options, you choose door 1 each time, you switch every time: 1. Car is behind door 1, you switch you lose 2. Car is behind door 2, you switch you win 3. Car is behind door 3, you switch you win


Because the way the problem was stated, you picked door #1 and door #3 was opened, so the car is not behind door #3, leaving only the first two sçenarios, which shows the odds to be 50%.
If the problem is worded that you choose a door and the host opens a door to reveal a goat, it's a different scenario. That's not what the problems states as given in the OP.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 11:25 am
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