re: what's more reliable: stars or "offer lists"

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Doesn't have to be intentional. Kids, parents, coaches sometimes hear comments, rumors, hearsay and innocently believe what they want to believe. And, on occasion I suspect there is deliberate misinformation.

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That kinda proves my point that while the offer list doesn't truly show commitable offers, it dies show who's getting interest.

If a kid is getting enough interest to think they offered then you can still use the offer list as a tool to see what kind of schools are showing interest in a certain recruit.