re: LSU's Real Odds of winning the CWS

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It's arguing semantics, but a team's true measure of ability surely factors into a team's ability relative to the competition.

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You are correct. The OP is misusing the word probability. He is using a layman's definition of probability that equates its meaning to be on par with the meaning of 'odds'. He is not using a scientific meaning of the word probability.

A true probability can only be calculated with any meaningful degree of confidence on a very simple system. For instance, the electron density on each atom for a simple conjugated molecule can be calculated. The true probability of anything so exceedingly complex as a team winning a series of baseball games is uncalculatable.

Thus, trend analysis, like Vegas Odds, are used to approximate a teams chances of winning. The lay public only really cares about a teams odds to that degree of complexity anyway.