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Message
re: WCWS preview and predictions LSU softball
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:44 pm to Mulerider
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:44 pm to Mulerider
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully. I know many elevate OBP above that of Batting Average, but I dont think it should be that way. A player wins the batting championship for having the highest batting average, not the highest on base percentage. And when someone wins the Triple Crown, its Batting Average, RBI's and Home Runs. If OBP was the ultimate statistic, there'd be recognition and an award for the person with the highest OBP. There isn't, and its because it's not as tell tale as many of you think it is.
Jaquish is a perfect example. Quite possibly the best player ever to attend LSU, the most natural softball player we have ever had, has an astronomical OBP. What is it? .521 or something like that?
The purpose of OBP is to give an after the fact statistic that takes into consideration walks and sacrifice flies. Lets say Jaquish has a .331 batting average, and a .521 OBP, 62 walks, and just one sacrifice fly.
Hypothetically, you cannot assume that in each of the 62 times she walked she'd actually get a hit, and that is exactly what OBP does. If you really want to take a theoretical guess at how many times she'd get a hit, out of those 60 walks, you go back to her batting average and you can guess she'd get a hit 33% of the times she was actually walked (based on her .331 batting average).
The reason I say OBP is an after the fact stat is because it is dependent on the pitcher possibly walking the batter, not the batter choosing not to swing at four pitches that are not strikes.
It played out this way. Remember when they were all walking her.. ? Her OBP went thru the roof. Her batting average stayed somewhere around .365. Then, instead of walking her, they started pitching to her, and suddenly her batting average is down to .331. See?
OBP is a bloated number influenced not by the batter but the opposing pitcher. (Of course, situations require sacrifice flies but those instances have been rare). Yeah it takes a hitter willing to work the pitcher, but walks arent numerous in elite softball.
Slappers are not likely to get walked intentionally. Gasso shifts her defense (yeah it bites her in the butt sometimes, but she aint going to intentionally walk a slapper.
In a game like what we have coming up, UCLA, Garcia probably wont walk Jaquish intentionally, and so it falls back on the batting average, not the OBP. If the pitcher is not walking anyone, the OBP goes out the window.
I cannot imagine a coach recruiting and coming upon two players... one with a .350 batting average and a .440 OBP, and another with a .425 batting average and a .430 OBP and going with the .350 hitter because the OBP is higher. Nobody does that.
I cannot imagine at a point when a pinch hitter is needed in a clutch situation and a pitcher has only walked one person that they coach would look at two possible hitters, one with a .330 average and a .430 OBP and then look at another with a .410 average and a .425 OBP and go with the .330 hitter. OBP is too walk-dependent, and the chance to walk rests mostly in the hands of the pitcher, not the batter.
OBP cannot be used as a predictor because it is dependent upon the pitcher's performance/choice to walk the batter. The only other factor that comes in is sacrifice flies, and we rarely ever see that happen.
I have read opposing opinions about Batting average vs OBP, but they all make the assumption that the batter will have a chance to watch four balls go by.
Elite pitchers may walk 2 or 3 batters per game. Once they get up to five or six they are pulled.
As for the comment about me lumping in all the slappers together, the reason I put the 60% figure in there is so I would NOT be lumping them all together. I am guessing 60% of slapper hits are INFIELD hits that move the runners one base at a time.
Of course, some runners are too slow to score from second on a hit that goes into the outfield, but generally runners on second do score. I cant cover all the bases writing about this, I shouldnt have to. Everybody knows its given that a slow runner might not be able to score from second base on a hit into the outfield.
Me saying Dawson was a .400 hitter wasnt a slight. 400 is way above average. We only have one .400 hitter on the team right now.
When I said “set the world on fire” I am talking about Mendes (Oklahoma), Lorenz last year (Florida), Garcia this year on the mound, Romero last year, etc. I have always pushed for Nicky to start, at least at DP, and I have always said she has the best swing on the team, hands down. She might end up with a .430 career average and steal 35 bases a year, and she is fast as lightning, but she is not Nicole Mendes, Lorenz, etc. I am hoping next year she starts and I believe she deserves to. I believe she should have gotten much, much more exposure this year, but that's Beth, and Beth knows more than I do about all this.
Good slappers might be a key component, but they are like pawns in a chess game. It's good to have one up front and one in the back, but if you got six slappers starting, you are going to throw the team back to the days when SEC was mostly small-ball and the wide open, swing away teams in the Big 12 and Pac 12 were killing everybody else.
One more thing, the regular slapper is going to get pulled out and a pinch hitter sent in in the event a sacrifice fly, or an outfield hit is needed. Rest assured, too, when the season winds down and the opponents start getting better and better, the defenses are better and if you are going to slap against Oklahoma, Oregon, etc , their first and third baseman will be up there waiting. That's the reason why the swing away teams wins championships, the defenses are rock solid when it comes to the WCWS.
I was going to crack a joke about Barnhill's throws to first base, but I betcha Walton has her throwing overhand all day every day after what happened in the first Bama game.
Jaquish is a perfect example. Quite possibly the best player ever to attend LSU, the most natural softball player we have ever had, has an astronomical OBP. What is it? .521 or something like that?
The purpose of OBP is to give an after the fact statistic that takes into consideration walks and sacrifice flies. Lets say Jaquish has a .331 batting average, and a .521 OBP, 62 walks, and just one sacrifice fly.
Hypothetically, you cannot assume that in each of the 62 times she walked she'd actually get a hit, and that is exactly what OBP does. If you really want to take a theoretical guess at how many times she'd get a hit, out of those 60 walks, you go back to her batting average and you can guess she'd get a hit 33% of the times she was actually walked (based on her .331 batting average).
The reason I say OBP is an after the fact stat is because it is dependent on the pitcher possibly walking the batter, not the batter choosing not to swing at four pitches that are not strikes.
It played out this way. Remember when they were all walking her.. ? Her OBP went thru the roof. Her batting average stayed somewhere around .365. Then, instead of walking her, they started pitching to her, and suddenly her batting average is down to .331. See?
OBP is a bloated number influenced not by the batter but the opposing pitcher. (Of course, situations require sacrifice flies but those instances have been rare). Yeah it takes a hitter willing to work the pitcher, but walks arent numerous in elite softball.
Slappers are not likely to get walked intentionally. Gasso shifts her defense (yeah it bites her in the butt sometimes, but she aint going to intentionally walk a slapper.
In a game like what we have coming up, UCLA, Garcia probably wont walk Jaquish intentionally, and so it falls back on the batting average, not the OBP. If the pitcher is not walking anyone, the OBP goes out the window.
I cannot imagine a coach recruiting and coming upon two players... one with a .350 batting average and a .440 OBP, and another with a .425 batting average and a .430 OBP and going with the .350 hitter because the OBP is higher. Nobody does that.
I cannot imagine at a point when a pinch hitter is needed in a clutch situation and a pitcher has only walked one person that they coach would look at two possible hitters, one with a .330 average and a .430 OBP and then look at another with a .410 average and a .425 OBP and go with the .330 hitter. OBP is too walk-dependent, and the chance to walk rests mostly in the hands of the pitcher, not the batter.
OBP cannot be used as a predictor because it is dependent upon the pitcher's performance/choice to walk the batter. The only other factor that comes in is sacrifice flies, and we rarely ever see that happen.
I have read opposing opinions about Batting average vs OBP, but they all make the assumption that the batter will have a chance to watch four balls go by.
Elite pitchers may walk 2 or 3 batters per game. Once they get up to five or six they are pulled.
As for the comment about me lumping in all the slappers together, the reason I put the 60% figure in there is so I would NOT be lumping them all together. I am guessing 60% of slapper hits are INFIELD hits that move the runners one base at a time.
Of course, some runners are too slow to score from second on a hit that goes into the outfield, but generally runners on second do score. I cant cover all the bases writing about this, I shouldnt have to. Everybody knows its given that a slow runner might not be able to score from second base on a hit into the outfield.
Me saying Dawson was a .400 hitter wasnt a slight. 400 is way above average. We only have one .400 hitter on the team right now.
When I said “set the world on fire” I am talking about Mendes (Oklahoma), Lorenz last year (Florida), Garcia this year on the mound, Romero last year, etc. I have always pushed for Nicky to start, at least at DP, and I have always said she has the best swing on the team, hands down. She might end up with a .430 career average and steal 35 bases a year, and she is fast as lightning, but she is not Nicole Mendes, Lorenz, etc. I am hoping next year she starts and I believe she deserves to. I believe she should have gotten much, much more exposure this year, but that's Beth, and Beth knows more than I do about all this.
Good slappers might be a key component, but they are like pawns in a chess game. It's good to have one up front and one in the back, but if you got six slappers starting, you are going to throw the team back to the days when SEC was mostly small-ball and the wide open, swing away teams in the Big 12 and Pac 12 were killing everybody else.
One more thing, the regular slapper is going to get pulled out and a pinch hitter sent in in the event a sacrifice fly, or an outfield hit is needed. Rest assured, too, when the season winds down and the opponents start getting better and better, the defenses are better and if you are going to slap against Oklahoma, Oregon, etc , their first and third baseman will be up there waiting. That's the reason why the swing away teams wins championships, the defenses are rock solid when it comes to the WCWS.
I was going to crack a joke about Barnhill's throws to first base, but I betcha Walton has her throwing overhand all day every day after what happened in the first Bama game.
3
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:33 pm to Bhs83
quote:
their first and third baseman will be up there waiting.
as they should be to defend the drag bunt. The middle infielders also SHOULD be playing up in front of the baseline. If the batter hits a hard line drive through the infield, she’ll be safe anyway.
Whether forward or playing in the base line, a hard hit through a hole will be a base hit regardless. moving forward some will not change this, but it will give you an advantage on one-hoppers and it can help cover the hole by cutting down on the angle. We all know how gard it is throwing them out on one hoppers but this can help. deep in hole and you can forget about it or even straight to the middle infield if playing too deep is a recipe for disaster.
Now they could pound it into dirt and like we have seen so many times it bounces right over infielders heads. That is the chance you take.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:10 pm to Bhs83
That was a long post, but I enjoy reading. 
It's not an agree or disagree equation. Rigorous statistical analysis has been conducted over the last 15 years and it has determined that the single most important statistical predictor for scoring runs is OBP. The idea is to score runs over everything else when on the offensive side of the game.
The idea of offense is to conserve outs and score runs. It does not matter how you get on base. The first goal of any hitter is to get on base without creating an out in front of the hitter and then to create a run scored from this ability to get on base. All analysis shows that the higher the OBP of the player the more runs that player produces, period, end of story. It's not a debate, it is a statistical certainty.
Batting average is a great predictor of OBP since they correlate but it is not the ultimate predictor of scoring runs. That predictor is owned by OBP. BA is overrated because it treats all hits as singles and does not take BB's or HBP's into account. Slugging percentage is a far better predictor of a hitters worth than BA since it values each hit individually based on total bases. BA is the old school stat we are all used to seeing so it has remained a common evaluation tool.
With this said, whoever makes out the line up on any team on any level should first look at the highest OBP's on the roster and make sure they are in the line up every day. Why? Because you are guaranteed to score more runs using players that have higher OBP's. More runs means more wins on any level. There is no scenario that disproves the correlation in OBP and runs scored.
quote:
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully. I know many elevate OBP above that of Batting Average, but I dont think it should be that way.
It's not an agree or disagree equation. Rigorous statistical analysis has been conducted over the last 15 years and it has determined that the single most important statistical predictor for scoring runs is OBP. The idea is to score runs over everything else when on the offensive side of the game.
The idea of offense is to conserve outs and score runs. It does not matter how you get on base. The first goal of any hitter is to get on base without creating an out in front of the hitter and then to create a run scored from this ability to get on base. All analysis shows that the higher the OBP of the player the more runs that player produces, period, end of story. It's not a debate, it is a statistical certainty.
Batting average is a great predictor of OBP since they correlate but it is not the ultimate predictor of scoring runs. That predictor is owned by OBP. BA is overrated because it treats all hits as singles and does not take BB's or HBP's into account. Slugging percentage is a far better predictor of a hitters worth than BA since it values each hit individually based on total bases. BA is the old school stat we are all used to seeing so it has remained a common evaluation tool.
With this said, whoever makes out the line up on any team on any level should first look at the highest OBP's on the roster and make sure they are in the line up every day. Why? Because you are guaranteed to score more runs using players that have higher OBP's. More runs means more wins on any level. There is no scenario that disproves the correlation in OBP and runs scored.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 5:36 am to Bhs83
quote:
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully.
In response to Mulerider, so do I. I held off responding - I think he was really responding to you. However, he was indirectly responding to me.
Bhs83, I so totally agree with you.
OBP, as a stat, implies that hitters (slapper or regular) and walkers/HBP players control the game of offensive baseball or fast pitch softball. They absolutely do not. Anyone ever hear of runners LOB? I did not see this LOB stat anywhere in this thread...
Any of those games are won by scoring the most runs at the end of a multiple inning game (regular, run-ruled, extra inning, etc.), whether it is baseball or fast pitch softball. Maybe I'm "uninformed".
Questions?
So, what contributes most to runs? Mulerider seems to think OBP (via slap hitters or slappers, even singles or more hitters, walkers, letting a pitch hit you, etc.) is key. OK. That's his opinion.
Sounds like high school to me. High school teams do not have the elite infield players that major college softball teams have. Argue with that? Probably not. Nobody has brought up this point or at least amplified it. Typical major college level slap hitters have a BA and an OBP entirely in line with regular hitters. But they produce very few of the runs offensively to win the game.
Enter RBI. A stat so much more important in this major college softball game/NPF, major college BB/MLB than OBP I cannot tell you where to start talking winning games at these levels.
Big advantage in high school to be an extremely fast slapper. No advantage in major college competition.
Speed of "slappers" comes to forefront in major college softball when they are on base. Big plus. Their speed comes to forefront defensively in outfield or infield. Big plus. But, not necessarily while batting.
Name of the game is runs scored on offense. OBP as a primary indicator ignores the LOB statistic. Several of the "slapper" advocates have already conceded this truism (they have seen slapper teams load the bases only to produce no runs that inning because the 3rd out was produced with a well positioned infield "throwing out" runner at home.
Slappers are fine (even great) in high school. Particularly when you overwhelm the other team athlete wise. Slappers are not so good at major college level. Watch the games...
Big time hitters (not "happy feet" slappers) matter more at the major college softball level, IMO. The RBI stat is so much better than the OBP stat at this level. It's unbelievable how many people fail to recognize this change in methodology necessary to deal with the talent level change in the major college softball game...
In no way am I denigrating our LSU teams slappers. We have what we have. We are great. Congratulations to Bailey Landry for her triple to drive home a run in LSU's 3rd game win. She is super. Exceptional slapper that is more of a hitter than slapper. Keep it up. So she can slap or hit/power slap big time. Hope LSU gets many more of her type in the future.
NPF (pro softball), major college baseball (LSU Tigers), and MLB pretty much ignore OBP. Remember, LOB. What counts is slugging %, RBI, HR, etc. Runs is the name of the game. Not bases touched only to be LOB...
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